Detroit GM Joe Dumars has officially, officially been to the mountaintop and now fallen all the way back down. I said before the season that giving Ben Gordon (five years, $55 million) and Charlie Villanueva (five years, $35 million) – two guys who’ve never been All-Stars -
was not the answer the Pistons needed to stage their resurgence in the east.
In a matter of three seasons, Detroit has gone from a contending team with an identity of toughness and grit, to a cellar-dweller without a heartbeat, and just as importantly, no cap space for this summer.
Don’t get me wrong. Gordon is a very good NBA player. Consistently one of the game’s premier shooters, he also loves to drive and score in the lane. He showed his will to win for Chicago in the playoffs last year, hitting several clutch shots down the stretch of games. The problem with his role in Detroit is that Dumars brought him in to be its franchise guy, when it already has a scoring point guard and similar type of player in Rodney Stuckey. Unfortunately for Gordon, he plays the role of Robin far better than Batman. Instead, the Pistons are now stuck with two score-first guards. This is where the catastrophe of signing Villanueva lies.
If Gordon can play off a good big man who scores in the post, he’s an All-Star on a quality team. But in Villanueva, you essentially have a 6-10 four man who’d rather face up from 16 feet out to the three than pound and grind in the paint. The combination of these two couldn’t be worse.
(BG can certainly fill it up, but without a respected big man on the block, he finds himself in no man's land far too often to quantify $55 million)
As a result, Gordon is scoring at his lowest clip in four years. He is shooting by far his worst percentage from three at an abysmal 32 percent (his career is 41 percent). To put it simply, he’s working too hard for his points.
Villanueva finds himself near his career average, but the former UConn star continues to struggle on defensive rotations and relies far too heavily on the three, shooting nearly four per game.
The Pistons find themselves with a 15-28 record, 18 games out of first in the Central, and light-years away from their string of Eastern Conference championship-round appearances. If they wanted to sign Gordon so be it, but to fully maximize his capabilities, you need to give him some kind of a scoring force down low, which may have meant holding off on Villanueva and waiting until this summer. The overzealousness of Joe Dumars prevails once again.
Staying in the Central Division, let’s move up the ladder to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were also quite busy last summer.
Before we get to the “Diesel,” I should touch on the acquisition of Anthony Parker, which didn’t receive the same fanfare but needs to be noted. In replacing Wally Szczerbiak (at least in terms of minutes played), Parker has brought significant improvement to one of the weakest positions on an otherwise strong Cleveland squad. While averaging only 7 points, he has shot an excellent 46 percent from three, and consistently taken pressure off LeBron by guarding either of the opposition’s top two scorers, something Szczerbiak couldn’t do. This means a lot for Bron as we enter the dog days of February and March. On to the big fella …
When Danny Ferry brought in Shaq, I found myself overly skeptical. The “Shaqtus” experiment in Phoenix didn’t work, so why would it work in Cleveland? Better yet, would O’Neal accept a lesser role and allow LeBron to run the team as he has so successfully since entering the league?
Now, almost halfway through the season, I remain undecided. On one hand, O’Neal clogs the paint and disrupts James’ driving lanes. This isn’t such the case with fellow 7-footer Zydrunas Ilgauskas because he tends to drift away from the paint. Also, when Cleveland does decide to push tempo, it's greatly hampered by O’Neal’s inability to run the floor.
But O’Neal – even at this stage – is the best low post scorer the Cavs have had since James entered the NBA, and his presence, although not the same it once was, cannot help but command attention.
Teams are obviously primarily focused on James, but in watching Cleveland this season, it seems that O’Neal just being on the floor tends to open things up for Mo Williams at times, which is something that should not be overlooked, especially after Williams struggled in the playoffs as badly as he did. (We’ll have to pay close attention now that Williams is out for the next 4-6 weeks. Daniel Gibson will see many of those minutes, and although a superb long-range shooter, he doesn’t have the same play-making skills).
Time will tell with the O’Neal move. Shaq did help Dwayne Wade win one in Miami, and he might just do the same with LeBron, who only needs a little out of the big fella to take the Cavs all the way. O'Neal will have to play second or even third fiddle at times though, something he may or may not accept.
A move we do have the verdict on occurred out west last summer.
San Antonio seemed to be the perfect fit for Richard Jefferson, a talented slasher who excels in the open floor, and a guy who can really lock up. Needless to say, this pick-up hasn’t worked out.
The Spurs have uncharacteristically not gotten it together by the break, due in large part to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili’s health issues and the age of Tim Duncan. Jefferson was supposed to supplant this old age while providing scoring and a defensive presence. But he hasn’t adjusted to his diminished role, averaging under 13 points and less than 4 rebounds, while having his worst performance at the free throw line since his rookie year.
In the past, Jefferson was a No. 2 option behind a younger Vince Carter, but now at best, he’s a No. 3. Even in Milwaukee last season, he proved that he couldn’t shoulder the load of an elite scorer. When Michael Redd went down, so too did RJ’s overall play. In 82 games with the Bucks, he shot under 44 percent from the floor, his lowest total since 2004-05.
With the emerging play of George Hill as well, Jefferson is seeing less playing time. Never a consistent long-range shooter, his scoring has typically come from driving the lane or earning trips to the free throw line. But that role is already hand-picked for both Ginobili and Parker. Not to say that they all cannot do this, but it’s difficult for them to play together at once. Hill, on the other hand, is an improved three-point threat, can play the point, and also locks up. Jefferson just seems to be the odd man out, and the Spurs seem to have passed the torch on for good.
Other Notable Off-Season Moves:
Boston – Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels – Daniels hasn’t played in weeks since breaking his thumb, but even when he was healthy, he didn’t receive many minutes.
While Daniels was supposed to add defensive help and spell some of Ray Allen’s and Paul Pierce’s minutes, Wallace was brought in to add length on defense but also spread the floor on offense with his propensity to shoot the three. Doing so would in turn help KG down low and open up driving lanes for Rajon Rondo, making the Celtics that much more dangerous. Unfortunately for the C’s, this hasn’t happened.
Wallace is having by far the worst season of his career, shooting a career-low 41 percent from the floor and under 30 percent from three, also the worst number during his illustrious 15 years in the league.
Garnett is back from injury, but based on his recent track record it’s not safe to rely upon him come playoff time. Unless Sheed figures out a way to start making jumpers again, Boston is in trouble. Forget LA in the west. Cleveland is playing brilliantly, as are the young-legged Hawks.
This Celtics team is seemingly older and slower than ever.
Portland – Andre Miller – I’m really surprised of the burden Miller has been on Portland, at least for the first two months of the season. Miller has long been known as a pure point guard – a guy who loves to facilitate but can also score when called upon. Up until January, he hadn’t done either. Miller was colliding with Blazers All-Star Brandon Roy, who even fumed publicly that he needed the ball more so he could create. Along with the season-ending injury to the much-improved Greg Oden, the Blazers, once a team thought by many – including myself – to be a sleeper in the west, looked on the brink of a collapse.
But led by the resurgent play of Miller and a ceasefire in-house, Portland has bounced back some, winning three of four, and beginning to resemble the team I thought it was. In January, Miller has averaged 19.5 points and almost 8 assists, causing Blazer fans to maintain hope that this is a team indeed capable of making a run.
Utah - I really like what Utah did in matching Portland's four-year, $32 million offer sheet for power forward Paul Millsap.
A 2006 second-round pick who became the first collegian ever to lead the nation in rebounding three years in a row - which further validates my theory that most NBA GMs and scouts literally have no understanding of basketball, like at all, and consistently draft on potential over production... and are thus morons - Millsap burst on to the NBA map last season when he admirably filled in for the injured Carlos Boozer, averaging close to 16 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 56 percent (a stretch that included an insane 19 consecutive double-doubles), while almost becoming an All-Star. With the oft-injured Boozer rumored to be dealt by the February 18 trading deadline, the 24-year-old Millsap is the immediate fill-in who proved last season to be a quality starter on a playoff team.
The one downside (if we're nitpicking), is that Boozer - a two-time All-Star - is the better player, and an excellent pick-and-roll option for Deron Williams. If Utah doesn't deal Boozer by the deadline, it has essentially wasted a year of Millsap's deal because his minutes remain limited so long as Boozer is in Salt Lake. But even still, I think keeping Millsap was the correct move.
Suppose Boozer isn't dealt - he is sure to ink a bigger deal with a high paying suitor who needs a player of his caliber to elevate itself into contender status, thus leaving Millsap with three years as the assumed starter.
Ironically enough, the best stretch of play the Jazz had last season was without Boozer in the line-up. Some say he's rather selfish and more concerned about his ensuing payday than NBA hardware. Even with a healthy Boozer in the playoffs, Utah was still easily ousted by LA in the first round.
What we've learned is that the drop-off to Millsap is far less than anybody thought, and with pieces already in place like Williams, Ronnie Brewer and Mehmet Okur, the Jazz can continue to build for the future and win now, without necessarily rebuilding.
If you're GM Kevin O'Connor, don't wait and edge closer toward the daunted luxury tax. Since there's no shot (okay maybe .081 percent) at Boozer re-signing, maximize his value now by trading him and adding one or two good players to the mix. Clearly, Boozer's presence is not enough to help Utah contend. The Jazz are barely making the playoffs as is.
Millsap is a great part of the future, so bringing him back for less than most mid-level deals was absolutely the right move.
Memphis – Hmm, let's see. What Iverson failed to notice was that sitting back and letting younger, not to mention better players (e.g. Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, maybe even Mike Conley - that's not a joke) may actually be a good thing, and may even lead to wins. Ironically without this "superstar," all five of these guys are having career years and Memphis, yes Memphis, is going to make the playoffs!
Good for Allen though, in that his "un-retirement" with Philly propelled him to his 11th All-Star appearance. To no surprise, he has not given any indication that he won't accept the bid to let deserving guards (how about Joe Johnson or Rajon Rondo) fill in for him. Mark it down ladies and gentlemen: another "successful" season in the tainted eyes of the practice legend.
Dallas – Shawn Marion – He’s not the fantasy stat-stuffing “Matrix” (I always loved this nickname) he used to be, but Marion is still a big piece of the puzzle for a championship contender, and his addition has been valuable to Dallas.
His athleticism and ability to run the floor mesh perfectly with Jason Kidd (who by the way is having another brilliant season – the guy is timeless), and his cat-like quickness have been a much needed addition to the Mavs normally sterile defensive unit. Getting Marion on the relatively cheap (5 years, $39 million) doesn’t hurt either, and his versatility takes pressure off of Dirk at both ends of the floor, as well as Josh Howard, who normally would always guard number one scorers. Plus, Dallas can go small and create mis-matches with Marion at the four and Dirk at the five, giving them unparalleled team speed and a hybrid offensive attack, which will come in extremely handy in the playoffs. All in all, a good move.
Los Angeles Lakers - Just wanted to touch briefly on the re-signing of Lamar Odom for four years (team option on fourth) at $33 million, a deal that cannot be overstated. Odom is the ultimate "super glue" component of this team. His ability to come of the bench and lead the second unit - either by playing the point, posting up, leading fast breaks, or guarding centers - is one of the driving forces to the success of the Lakers, especially in the playoffs when rosters often tighten up. Without a doubt, keeping "Khlmar" (sorry, but I just had to) will be one of the determining factors should Kobe's crew win another title.
(They are kind of a cute couple, you have to give them that)
Toronto – Hedo Turkoglu – There is a thing in life called value, and Hedo Turkoglu’s $53 million deal over five years doesn’t translate. Sure, Turk is a versatile player with many skills in that he can handle the ball, pass, and uses his 6-10 frame to shoot over smaller defenders. But $53 million? That's not superstar money, but it's certainly not Hedo Turkoglu money either.
First of all, Toronto is a team that already has former No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani, who at 7-feet, possesses a similar skill set as Turkoglu. He may not have as developed a handle or the quickness but loves to shoot the three and score with his face to the basket. Secondly, Chris Bosh (who’s probably gone after this season, perhaps in part to the Turk signing) is a bona fide superstar, and the two-headed attack of Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack at point guard is good enough to not lose you games.
What the Raptors needed was a traditional scorer who can drive and make plays. Bosh is an unselfish big man, who unlike a Dwight Howard for instance, can score away from the basket as well. Watch a Raptors game, and one thing quickly becomes evident. Because Bargnani isn't a low post presence and because of Bosh's multi-dimensional game away from the basket, driving lanes to slash are wide open in their offensive sets.
A guy like Jefferson probably would have made more sense, but what would have made the most sense for a team that knew it wasn’t contending for a title was to save that money for this summer to attempt to re-sign the effervescent Bosh, or lure another one of the prized free-agents of this summer’s abundant talent.
Much of Toronto’s struggles can be attributed to the struggles of its $53-million man. Shooting just 40 percent from the field, Turkoglu is averaging under 13 points and less than 5 rebounds, his worst season since he was a Sacramento King in 2003-04. Bad move, Jr. Colangelo.
Now we have to wait and see what happens during the next month? Will GMs (Joe Dumars, Otis Smith, Danny Ferry?) get antsy and make a trade just for the sole purpose of making one? Will Amare really get dealt to Cleveland? (Scary thought). Will Chris Bosh play his last game in a Raptors uniform? Who will make that quiet deal for a defender (Ronnie Brewer?), or back-up point guard (Jordan Farmar, T.J. Ford?) that proves to be the missing ingredient? What will happen with Rudy Gay and Tracy McGrady, not to mention the entire Wizards roster (okay, well at least Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison?)
Pay close attention, because often it's these mid-SEASON deals that become the key to an NBA Championship.