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Everyone loves the new guy.  It’s especially true for back-up quarterbacks, and in baseball it’s true for hotshot prospects every spring.  Every year though, fantasy players jump a bit overboard looking for the next big thing and reach for prospects without defined roles, are too far from the majors, or simply not as good as their press clippings.  Here is a quick look at some rookies that could be interesting in fantasy this season.

Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta
If there is one rookie to own in fantasy this year, this is the guy.  Conventional wisdom would say Heyward would return to the minors at least to start the year, but this is not a conventional player.  Universally seen as the top position player prospect in baseball, Heyward is a freak of nature.  He is still just 20 years old, but stands 6’4’’ and is up to 235 lbs. He also has been crushing balls this spring drawing rave reviews from everyone, and leading to comparisons to Albert Pujols from opposing managers.  Currently AccuScore has a conservative projection of 50% playing time with close to a .300 average and 13 home runs.  If he wins a job out of spring, he should be the true breakout star fantasy owners are looking for.  With Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz, and Eric Hinske being his main competition, RF looks like the perfect spot for Heyward in 2010.

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay
Here is the classic case of a top prospect that fantasy owners should temper expectations for.  While viewed as a top 10 prospect, Jennings might not see a major league field this season.  Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have two OF spots locked up, and Matt Joyce, and Gabe Kapler are very serviceable.  Jennings isn’t draftable in all but the deepest mixed leagues (unless you’re in a keeper/dynasty league of course).

Scott Sizemore – 2B, Detroit
Sizemore is the likely starter at 2B, and playing time is the key to success for any prospect.  He is not flashy, but put up solid numbers in the minors hitting .297.  More importantly he had a career .383 OBP which could lead to a decent run total in Detroit.  Sizemore has average speed, but could get you around 15-20 stolen bases with a full season of work.  He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Brandon Wood – 3B, Anaheim
It’s probably now or never for Wood with the Angels. The loss of Chone Figgins leaves the 3B job to Wood, and we project him to hit .265 with solid power about 20 home runs. His problem has always been a long swing that leads to strikeouts, something he improved on last season. Wood is probably ready for a major league role, but I personally get the feeling the Angels don’t trust him and that Mike Scioscia flat-out doesn’t like him (as a player). For some reason, Scioscia seems to prefer Macier Izturis. A trade to another team would probably improve his fantasy outlook.

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati
Stubbs will probably face some competition for the CF job from Chris Dickerson, but he is likely to win a starting spot. We currently project Stubbs for a .277 average with 30 steals and more than 80 runs.  That is a useful fantasy player.  His does have a problem with strikeouts, and hit just .202 on the road in about 200 major-league at-bats last season. However, he is just 25 and will have time and opportunity this season.  He could be a nice late-round pick-up.

Tommy Manzella – SS, Houston
The fact that he will be the starting SS for the Astros should be an indictment on the entire franchise.  Manzella posted a career .321 OBP in the minors.  He is all glove and no-hit, somebody you don’t want to own in fantasy.

Michael Brantley – OF, Cleveland
The signing of Russell Branyan might leave Brantley without a job pushing Matt LaPorta to LF. Still, Brantley is a name to remember for later in the year.  He hit .313 during a September call-up, and is a career .300 avg / .383 OBP hitter in the minors with plus speed.  With a full season of work he could hit for a solid average with 40 steals and good run totals (but without much power).

Before Tony Parker’s injury, the Spurs were projected to finish 6th in the West with 49.3 wins – just ahead of the Thunder and the Blazers.  Now with the news that Parker will miss 6 weeks with a wrist injury San Antonio is projected to finish – 6th in the West.

Despite losing Parker, a 3-time All-Star, for possibly the rest of the regular the forecast for San Antonio does not change significantly. His absence will mean more minutes for George Hill and Roger Mason with Manu Ginobili assuming more ball-handling duties. Keith Bogans and Malik Hairston could see increased minutes on the wing as well. 

The non-change in the forecast is less an indictment on Parker – currently averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists – and more circumstances beyond his influence at this point in the season. The Spurs are basically locked into one of the final three playoff spots in the West. They currently sit 1.0 game behind Oklahoma City and 1.5 ahead of Portland.  More importantly, the Spurs are 5.5 games ahead of 9th place Memphis.  With only 22 games remaining, it would take a complete collapse for San Antonio to fall out of playoff position.  The presence of Hill, Ginobili, and Tim Duncan makes that scenario extremely unlikely.

As you can see, Memphis has only a 3% chance of passing one of the three teams ahead of it including San Antonio. In the West, only the seeding is left to be determined at this point.

San Antonio’s closing schedule is very tough featuring road games against Boston, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Orlando, and the Lakers. The upside though is that San Antonio would be underdogs in all these road games even with a healthy Parker. The home schedule is no cake-walk either with the Cavs, Lakers, and Magic but the situation here is similar as well.  The overall forecast remains the same so Spurs fans shouldn’t worry about the rest of the regular season too much.  Instead, the team just needs to get Parker healthy for the playoffs.

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.

The Ravens made the AFC Championship Game in 2008 and won one playoff game in 2009 without a true #1 Wide Receiver.  WR Derrick Mason is a solid WR, but at 36 years old, the 5’10” Mason is not in Boldin’s class.  While Mason deserves credit for having 73 catches, 1028 yards and 7 TDs in 2009, one could argue that this shows just how good Ray Rice and Joe Flacco can be.  They are good enough to help Mason nearly make the Pro Bowl despite his obvious limitations.

To evaluate Anquan Boldin’s value we went back to the 2009 Season and “re-simulated” the entire season.  The Ravens were 9-7 in 2009, but in our re-simulation they averaged 9.9 wins, made the playoffs nearly 70% of the time and won the AFC North a shade over 40% of the time.  When we added Anquan Boldin to the team and assumed Mason (a free agent) would become the #2, and the newly acquired Donte’ Stallworth #3 WRs we found that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs increased to over 76%.

If Boldin stays healthy he improves the Ravens chances of making the playoffs by over +6 percentage points.  On a per game basis he helps the Ravens average 1.4 more points and provides a +3.1 percentage point impact per game.  Just how valuable is +3.1%?  It translates to around a +2 point difference in average margin of victory.  It takes the Ravens from being a slight underdog to teams like the Colts at home, to being a slight favorite vs the Colts at home.  In other words, it could be exactly what the team needs to get over the hump in the AFC and make it to the 2011 Super Bowl.

Jason Terry is reportedly out 7-10 weeks after suffering an orbital fracture Wednesday night. The Dallas guard took an inadvertent elbow to the face from Corey Brewer, and will leave a hole for his team in the backcourt.

The Mavericks had just acquired Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington and hadn’t yet gelled as a unit. Now they likely won’t get that chance with this recent injury. That is disappointing as the Mavs were projected to improve significantly with a full lineup with a forecast to win more than 70 percent of their remaining games. For reference, only the Lakers and Cavs had played better than .700 ball this season.

A seven-week timetable would put Terry out until the end of the regular season, a span of 20 games. If the injury keeps him more along the lines of 10 weeks, it would extend into the playoffs giving the Mavs even more reason to worry.

Without Terry, Dallas is still in good shape. AccuScore still projects the Mavs to finish second in the West ahead of Denver and Utah despite the loss of Terry. The Mavericks are projected to win 12.7 games over their final 20 contests compared 14.1 with a healthy Terry. The big blow here is the fact that with Terry combined with the acquisitions of Butler and Haywood, Dallas had the potential to be an elite team. Now it might be merely good, which could be the difference between a potential Finals appearance and a second-round exit. With Terry out, Dallas will now be much more reliant on J.J. Barea and Rodrique Beaubois. Butler will also likely spend ample time in the backcourt. As with any injury, there is always the chance that role players like Barea will be exposed with increased playing time.

On a per game basis, Dallas is now 7 percent more likely to lose from now to the end of the season. This is significant because of the relatively easy schedule Dallas has over the next three weeks. If Terry can beat this projected timetable, it would do the team a great deal of good. Starting March 25, the Mavericks have dates with Portland twice, Orlando, Denver, Memphis, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City. If Terry were to miss only 10 games, the impact of his loss would decrease to -4.5 percent a night.

First, the moving parts:

Houston:  Kevin Martin, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong, 2012 protected first-rounder
New York:  Tracy McGrady, Sergio Rodriguez
Sacramento:  Carl Landry, Larry Hughes, Joey Dorsey

The Knicks also previously sent Darko to Minnesota and waived the incoming Brian Cardinal.  J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker are added to the bench in the Nate Robinson deal, which also sent Marcus Landry to Boston.

Houston looks like a big winner here getting Martin and lots of draft considerations while unloading McGrady.  That did not come without a price however having to take on Jeffries’ contract while losing Landry.

The trade hurts the Rockets on paper mostly because of how terrific Landry has been this season.  He should garner serious consideration for Sixth Man of the year.  Martin, though, gives Houston an über-efficient scorer at the two which will also allow Trevor Ariza to shift to a more comfortable 3rd-scorer role.  Martin has not been great this season, but has been slowed by injuries. 

Overall, the trade actually pushes Houston from 9th to 10th in the competitive Western Conference, but 2010 is not the goal.  Next season is the target for Houston when presumably Yao will be back allowing Scola, Ariza, Hayes and the like to play much more defined roles.  A backcourt of Martin and Brooks might be tough to pass defensively, but the presence of Ariza and Shane Battier as a pair of perimeter stoppers helps there.  Jeffries actually can help here as well.  Even though his contract is terrible, he has plenty of value as a defensive role player.

New York is projected to be -5.5 percent worse per game this season losing 1.6 more games than before all these moves.  That is terrific news for Utah which owns the Knicks’ first-round pick.  As for the Knicks, their dream scenario is now possible: two maximum salary slots available for this summer.  It cost them their 2012 pick, and maybe their 2011 pick as well (Houston has the right to swap picks as long as it isn’t No.1 overall). 

Also, the moves also probably will end up costing David Lee because he will be a free agent and would need to be renounced in order to sign two max guys.  Just over half a season was enough for the team to deem Jordan Hill expendable marking yet another New York mistake.  T-Mac might get a chance to prove himself now on the court, and Rodriguez will get yet another to chance to prove he can play at this level.  New York saved about $1 million extra by sending out Darko.  The guess is that David Kahn just wanted to experience Darko for himself.  There is no other explanation for Minnesota.

The Kings got cap relief, and a great young (and affordable) forward in Landry.  His contract has an option for $3 million next season.  While Sacramento won’t be a destination for Wade, LeBron, Bosh and the like, the oodles of space does make them a player for mid-tier guys and as a facilitator of future trades.  The Kings can now build around a core of Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Landry, and Jason Thompson.  Not bad at all. 

Landry’s productivity actually improves Sacramento’s outlook for this season by +1.2 wins, or 4.3 percent per game, quite the impact for a former second round pick.

The Bucks made two moves at the deadline swapping Joe Alexander and Hakim Warrick for John Salmons from Chicago, and sending Jodie Meeks and Francisco Elson to Philadelphia for Primoz Brezec, Royal Ivey, and a 2nd round pick.

Milwaukee picked up some assets for several players that were no longer in their plans.  That makes these moves fairly solid despite being projected to be 3.3% worse per night this season.  Alexander hasn’t played at all this season while Meeks, Elson, and Warrick were not in the regular rotation.  Salmons hasn’t played great basketball this season, but it’s possible he could bounce back some being more of a focal point on offense in Milwaukee and just being asked to score.  The Bucks still have a solid 43.2% chance of making the playoffs.

The Sixers pick up a young player with some upside in Meeks.

The big winner in the Salmons trade though is the Bulls.  Chicago cleared $5.8 million owed to Salmons from their 2011 books giving them enough room for a max deal making a serious run at Dwyane Wade possible.  Combined with their deal with Charlotte sending away Tyrus Thomas for Flip Murray and Acie Law makes deadline day as a great success for Chicago. 

Warrick should be very capable of replacing Thomas very easily without the attitude problems.  Flip Murray fits Salmons role of being a bench perimeter scorer very well.  Better yet, the deal does not impact Chicago’s cap space negatively.  Projections actually have the Bulls better after shedding both Thomas and Salmons.

Charlotte adds a talented player in Thomas to its frontcourt.  He still has some upside as a nice athlete that is still very young (23 yrs.).  He does come with issues however as he clashed often with his coaches in Chicago, and will have to learn to get along with the tough-nosed Larry Brown with the Bobcats.   Thomas does though provide an alternative to Boris Diaw, and is certainly better than the other available options (Stephen Graham, Derrick Brown, et al).  Charlotte might miss Flip Murray the most with D.J. Augustin being the only semi-reliable reserve guard on the roster behind Raymond Felton and Stephen Jackson.

The Grizzlies made an under-the-radar deal at the wire getting swingman Ronnie Brewer from the Jazz right at the deadline for a draft pick.  Interestingly, this deal might have made the biggest impact basketball-wise of all the trades made in the past few days.

Brewer is on an expiring deal, but will be a restricted free agent.  That means Memphis will probably be able to resign him on the cheap if it chooses to.  He is making a big impact on the Grizzlies – +1.5 wins over the rest of the season including a 10% boost in their playoff chances – because the bench has been so bad.  Brewer will easily outplay the likes of Sam Young and DeMarre Carroll as the first wing off the bench.  Great move for Memphis.

The Jazz dump salary, get another mid-first round pick, and open minutes for C.J. Miles, Kyle Korver, and Wes Matthews with very little change to their season projection.

Cleveland:  Antawn Jamison, Sebastian Telfair
Los Angeles Clippers:  Drew Gooden
Washington: Zydrunas Ilgasukas, Al Thornton, Brian Skinner, 1st round pick (from CLE)

In the biggest deal so far this trading season, the Cavaliers got LeBron James another sidekick by acquiring Antawn Jamison from the Wizards.  The kicker here is that the team didn’t even have to give up J.J. Hickson to do it.  Zydrunas Ilgauskas goes to Washington, but the Cavs operate better with Varejao at center so this loss of Big Z is immaterial (except in Nike puppet commercials). 

The trade bumps up Cleveland’s projected record to a tidy 63-19 for the season and the projected leader for homecourt throughout the playoffs (+1.8 percent per game).  This ends any talk of Amare to the Cavs.  One reason why GM Danny Ferry would prefer this trade is the ability to keep Hickson in the fold.  Jamison also might be a better fit at power forward in a small(er) lineup with Varejao and James in the frontcourt.  Jamison is also a very low turnover guy, and is known as a good team player.  He won’t upset the nice balance the Cavs are cultivated thus far this season.  One question Cleveland will have to answer is the glut they have now at power forward.  Hickson, Varejao, Jamison and the soon-to-return Leon Powe will be fighting it out for minutes.  Also, if the Cavs don’t win the title, they will have to wonder forever if Amare would have gotten them across the finish line.

Washington is in full-scale sell mode shedding every salary they can.  The team needs to rebuild completely starting through the draft.  Even if the pick they pick-up from Cleveland is low, it is still a valuable asset.  Every loss this season also means more ping-pong balls in the John Wall lottery.

The Clippers had nothing to gain (personnel-wise) by becoming a part of this deal.  They did it to clear enough salary space to create a max-salary slot for this upcoming season.  Drew Gooden is probably going to be waived, so the projected impact of this trade for this season on the Clippers is immaterial.  What it does do is clear Thornton and Telfair from the books leaving Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman on the roster for 2010-11.  DeAndre Jordan has a team option that will probably be exercised.  I wonder who is available that would fit at the small forward spot and will be a free agent?  Hmmm….

The Portland Trail Blazers have defied the odds this season battling through injuries to sit in 8th place in the Western Conference at the All-Star break.  Without their two centers – Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla – the Blazers looked unlikely to seriously compete this season.  GM Kevin Pritchard filled that void in the middle perfectly though acquiring Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake.  Camby is 2nd in the league in rebounding, and is still a defensive presence with his shot-blocking, and should assimilate perfectly into Portland’s lineup.

Portland is projected to improve by slightly more than a game over the remaining 27 games of the season (+4.1 percent per game).  While the Blazers are still projected to finish 8th, things could change rapidly as the current gap between themselves and the Jazz in 3rd place is just 3 games.  If Portland were to improve one game today, it would jump all the way to 5th in the standings so this move is huge.  Blake had become superfluous with the emergence of Jerryd Bayless in the backcourt, and Outlaw’s injury status is still murky.  While the team likely wanted to keep Outlaw, the need in the middle was greater and Camby is the best player available to fill that void.

Losing Camby is obviously a huge blow to the Clippers.  L.A. is more than 2 games worse over the remaining 30 games of the season (-7.7 percent a night).  Camby also reportedly loved Los Angeles, and wanted to re-sign with the team over the summer.  The Clippers, though, have yet to see rookie Blake Griffin on the floor, and are 8.5 games behind Portland for the final playoff spot in the West.  Competing this season is not the goal so losing 2-3 more games in 2010 is negligible. 

The trade works for the Clippers on several levels. The trade also frees minutes for the highly productive Craig Smith at PF.  It also opens minutes for youngster DeAndre Jordan who has shown flashes of being a nice player inside.  Getting him more playing time should be a focus for the team. Blake is probably a better back-up option than Sebastian Telfair, but he’s still just a reserve.  He will be a free agent after the season.  Outlaw could be a nice player on the wing, but he is still currently injured and it is unknown when he will be back this season.  Having Outlaw’s rights though is an advantage given the fact that he should be a wanted commodity in the offseason. Holding the rights to both players frees plenty of cap room this offseason.

The first big move of the NBA trade season went down Saturday as Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson were traded from the Washington Wizards to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross and James Singleton.

The trade is a very good one for Dallas getting the best player in the deal in Butler who, while not having his best season, is still easily out-producing Howard.  Stevenson is a serviceable player in the backcourt that could help in spurts.  Haywood is also a nice addition giving the Mavericks more size to compete in the West.  Haywood is one of only three players in the NBA averaging 10+ rebounds and 2+ blocks this season.

Dallas improved itself by 3 percent per game with this trade.  Howard has played in just 31 games this season, and is having his worst season since his rookie year in 2004.  Butler will be much more dependable.  Being on a contender and no longer the number one option might also help Butler’s low 42 percent shooting percentage. Eric Dampier has injury concerns, and Haywood could easily provide solid defense and rebounding in either a starting or reserve role.  While the trade isn’t earth-shattering in terms of the final standings, it should help the Mavs compete in a seven-game series against either the Nuggets or the Lakers. 

Interestingly, this trade actually improved the Wizards as well.  Washington is slightly better now because Howard has a track record of being a solid player with better career shooting numbers than Butler.  Drew Gooden has shown himself to be a solid low-post scoring option at times in his career, particularly on bad teams.  Even if either player doesn’t do much in a Wizards uniform, Washington can say it “won” this deal by clearing some salaries off the books, which was the ultimate goal.  All four newly acquired players are in the final year of their contracts.

Since a disastrous 3-8 start that led to the firing of head coach Byron Scott, the Hornets have gone 23-13 to take over the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Now however comes the hard part as superstar point guard Chris Paul is expected to miss an extended period of time with a cartilage tear in his left knee.  He is expected to undergo arthroscopic surgeryin the next couple of days.

The timetable of this injury varies with reports ranging from 1-2 months.  Before Paul was injured, AccuScore projected the Hornets to finish with a record of 45-37 with a 60% chance of making the postseason.  With Paul out 1 month, the Hornets are projected to be 2 games worse at 43-39 with a 49% chance of making the playoffs.  Under this scenario, New Orleans would still be right in the thick of the race and could possibly survive this injury.  If however Paul is out 2 months, the Hornets are probably doomed as they are projected to be yet another 2 games worse at 41-41.  A .500 record won’t cut in the West, and leaves the team with just a 34% chance at the postseason.

Without the benefit of a top-20 pick, the Hornets quietly had one of the best hauls in 2009 by selecting UCLA point guard Darren Collison and acquiring LSU scorer Marcus Thornton, and it’s a good thing they did.  Collison recently set the team’s rookie assist mark with 18, and Thornton has recently joined the starting lineup averaging 12.2 points and shooting 42% from three-point range in the month of January.

Both rookies will be heavily relied upon now with Paul out for an extended period.  While both have shown flashes of brilliance they both will now have to navigate the tough Western Conference without the steadying presence of a veteran.  Thornton has only recently joined the starting five after a trade sent Devin Brown to Chicago.  Bobby Brown was also sent to the Clippers.  Both moves were for salary cap reasons leaving the two rookies to fend for themselves.  The only other guard currently on the roster is Morris Peterson.  He played just 15 minutes all of January prior to Saturday.  The playoff hopes of New Orleans rest on a pair of rookies in the backcourt, not exactly a recipe for success in the NBA.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations won 71 percent of the time (182-74 regular season, 6-4 in playoffs) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of spreads and totals check out AccuScore's Winner's Edge which has gone an impressive 14-5, 73.7 percent in the playoffs.

COLTS FAVORED

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs. 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees.

WHICH SAINTS PASS DEFENSE WILL SHOW UP?

The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100 percent and the worst at 0 percent. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90 percent. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom third in the league at 31 percent. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning.

COLTS RUN DEFENSE IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE STATS INDICATE

The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56 percent - slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for less than 100 rushing yards, the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times.

COLTS ARE FAVORED IN A SHOOTOUT THANKS TO TURNOVER MARGIN

If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.

The bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers is that point guard Mo Williams sprained his shoulder 1/19 against Toronto.  While Williams won’t need surgery, he will miss 4-6 weeks.  The good news is that the Cavs beat both the Lakers at home and the Thunder on the road without him.

Those two wins against quality competition without Williams in the lineup are not surprising.  AccuScore simulations projected as much.  Before the injury with a healthy Mo at PG, AccuScore projected Cleveland to win 60 games and nab the No. 1 seed out East.  Without him, AccuScore projected Cleveland to win 59.7 games, still a healthy 2 games ahead of Boston for the East’s best record. 

AccuScore expected Cleveland to be just fine in the backcourt through increased minutes for Delonte West and Boobie Gibson.  LeBron James would also be able to pick up the slack by handling the ball more often and initiating the offense, something he already does often for Cleveland.  West is shooting 39 percent from three-point range while Gibson is shooting a sparkling 47 percent from distance (45.7 percent overall).

The bad news is that now West has suffered a broken finger on his left (shooting) hand, and missed the Oklahoma City game.  Cleveland still managed to pull that game out on the shoulders of James, which will likely need to continue going forward.  One good sign for Cleveland is that the Cavs have yet to go out and sign another guard even on a 10-day contract.  That may signal that the front office isn’t overly concerned about West’s injury. 

As long as West is not out for an extended period like Williams, Cleveland fans shouldn’t be worried.  Cleveland has a small, but nice cushion on the Celtics and Magic for best record in the East.  The Cavs should be able to weather their backcourt injuries just fine.

In average simulations, the Colts are winning 61 percent of simulations with Peyton Manning throwing for 265 yards with a QB rating of 92.6.  That makes the Jets’ pass defense a huge key to this game.

If the Jets defense sacks Manning at least three times and has at least one interception, the Jets have a 59 percent chance to win the AFC.  Manning was sacked just 10 times in the regular season so pressuring him could be difficult.  He did, however, throw 16 interceptions.

If the Jets have two sacks or less, and wide receiver Reggie Wayne has at least six receptions, the Colts are 73 percent favorites, winning by an average of 8 points per game simulation.  That is up from 4 points in average forecasts.

The Jets have reached this point by playing to their strength: defense and running the ball.  That means the passing offense needs to limit itself.  If Mark Sanchez has 250 or more passing yards, he is more likely to throw numerous interceptions and the Jets have just a 27 percent chance to win.

If Sanchez throws for fewer than 200 yards, his interception rate drops and the Jets' chance of winning rises to 41 percent.

AccuScore accurately forecast last week that running back Shonn Greene would be the Jets' key offensive player.  We projected that if he had more carries that Thomas Jones, the Jets had a better chance to win. (Greene had 23 carries in the win over San Diego compared to Jones’ 14).

This week, if Greene reaches 75 rushing yards the Jets become the favorite with a 52 percent chance to win.  When Greene is the primary RB (60 percent of carries), the Jets chances improve by 4 percentage points.  Memo to Rex Ryan: Give Greene the rock.