Hitting The Cutoff Man

My last post about Eric Chavez was an apt lead-in to yesterday's news that Nomar Garciaparra was retiring. As Rob Neyer phrased it, Nomar's career was "an excellent object lesson in the non-inevitability of immortality."

Garciaparra was on his way to becoming an absolute, no-doubt Hall of Famer until the injuries started chipping away at him.

It's amazing to look back now on the 2000 season. That year was Nomaaaaaaaah's best, as he hit .372/.434/.599, won the AL batting title and punched up a career-high 155 OPS+.

It's funny though -- immortality is certainly not inevitable, but even if Nomar isn't a Hall of Famer, he's a guy people will remember for a long time. If you look at other guys who had great seasons in 2000 (just 10 years ago!) it's stunning how quickly players of a somewhat lower quality become completely irrelevant.

For example, who were the top 10 in batting average in the majors in 2000? Nomar was one, and Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Delgado and Derek Jeter appear on the list too.

The rest of that list inspired me to scratch my head and go, "THAT guy?"

In 2000, it's difficult to remember, Darin Erstad and Moises Alou hit .355, Jeffrey Hammonds hit .335 and David Segui hit .334, all finishing in the top 10. This same year, Richard Hidalgo finished fifth in home runs, and the top 10 in ERA included Jeff D'Amico, Chan Ho Park and Rick Ankiel.

The fact is, nothing is inevitable in baseball. If you look at last year's leaders, you can confidently predict that Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer will go down as two of the greatest players of all time, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera will eventually cruise into the Hall and Joey Votto and Pablo Sandoval have years of All-Star games and MVP votes ahead of them.

But reality is a lot messier than that. Chances are, injuries will sap somebody's potential before it fully blooms, and someone else's career will fizzle out just as quickly as it erupted in the first place.

We'll just have to stay tuned to find out who.

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It's already been a tough Spring Training for injuries.

We've had Alex Gordon and Russell Martin go down with a broken thumb and a pulled groin respectively, issues that will keep them out for at least a few weeks. Cubs set-up man Angel Guzman tore a ligament in his shoulder, and Joe Nathan tore one in his elbow, with both pitchers' seasons likely finished.

It's certainly a shame -- for those players, and for the fantasy players owners who have drafted them (this is why you don't hold your draft this early).

Yet I've been focused more on a guy who's now hurt -- at least not now.

The news out of A's camp is that Eric Chavez is working out at first base. It's an effort to increase the ways Chavez can get playing time this season, as Oakland has a glut of corner infielders, including Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jake Fox, plus Jack Cust penciled in at DH.

It's nice that the A's are trying to make room for a guy who not so long ago was a franchise cornerstone, and good for Chavez for giving the move a shot. But the whole thing makes me kind of sad.

Every season from 2000 through 2003, Chavez played at least 150 games and put up an OPS between .850 and .900. Starting in 2001, he won six straight Gold Glove awards (from 2002-06, his UZR at third was 34.8, suggesting he was well above average at the hot corner).

After the 2003 season, Oakland signed him to a six-year, $66 million extension that kicked in starting in 2005 and will end after this year. There was little reason to argue against the idea. Chavez was a bona fide star who was going into his age 26 season and had very little injury history.

The next three seasons went OK, as Chavez averaged about 140 games per season and won three more Gold Gloves, although his offensive production slowed down in 2005 and 2006.

Simply put, the past three seasons have been increasingly brutal for Chavez, who has had to deal with a wave of serious injuries, including to his back.

2007: 90 games, 101 OPS+, .322 wOBA
2008: 23 games, 85 OPS+, .302 wOBA
2009: 8 games, 3-for-30, 1 extra-base hit

A guy who was worth 23.2 WAR from 2002-06 was worth 0.6 from 2007-09.

Chavez is just 32, but even someone without his injury history likely would be on the downslope of his career by now. It's possible Chavez could finally kick the injury bug and find a second wind, at least for a while, but that type of thing just doesn't happen often.

What's more likely is that we'll see a guy who once fielded the hot corner as smoothly as anyone and was one of the game's brightest young stars hobble around first base every so often and share some at-bats with the likes of Fox, Daric Barton and Adam Rosales.

It's another sad reminder of how quickly and completely injuries can rob someone of their career and us of the chance to enjoy watching them play.

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Baseball, perhaps more than any other sport, loves its unwritten rules.

One of the most stringent is "Don't show up thine opponent, or expect to get plunked." A guy showboats, and he better watch his back the next time he steps up.

But is it right?

We saw this scenario played out again -- in Spring Training -- yesterday, when Barry Zito nailed Prince Fielder in the back in the first inning. The reason behind it, acknowledged by most everyone except a fine-averse Zito, was Fielder's celebration after a walk-off homer against the Giants last September.

You can see the original offending incident here.

My feeling is that Fielder and the Brewers were having some fun after a dramatic moment on their home field. If you don't want to see that kind of thing happen, don't give up the home run. And if you want to get revenge, strike him out next time.

At least Zito had the sense to hit Fielder in a padded area (not that it's difficult), but it's still something I'd rather not see.

But maybe that's just me. What do you all think?

Retaliation via HBP: acceptable part of the game, or dangerous and silly artifact of another era?

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We all remember when we were kids and the athletes we followed and rooted for seemed larger than life and awe-inspiring. Meeting one of our heroes was enough to nearly cripple us.

As fans, this can persist even into adulthood. Through my experience in journalism, I've been fortunate enough to cover a fair amount of MLB games as a reporter, and after a while you get used to talking to the players. Nonetheless, the first time I interviewed Albert Pujols, it required all of my will power to keep my composure and some form of professional demeanor.

You would figure things would be different for the athletes themselves, especially one like Tim Lincecum who has spent the past two seasons coolly mowing down opposing hitters. Think again.

From ESPN.com's Spring Training blog comes this anecdote:

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Lincecum, a Seattle native, was taking to reporters after throwing an inning against the Mariners when Ken Griffey Jr. -- a player he rooted for as a boy -- dropped by to say hello.

"Lincecum, what's up? I just wanted to say hi," Griffey said, extending his hand.

"It's a pleasure," Lincecum replied, looking awestruck as he shook Griffey's hand and watched him walk away. "It was nice meeting you," he added as Griffey headed for the Mariners' clubhouse.

Lincecum paused, let out a breath and said, "Man. Wow. He just came over. That was pretty cool."

He paused again. Then, he asked the media surrounding him, "What were we just talking about?"
-----

It's a pretty great image, a two-time Cy Young Award winner briefly turned back into a little kid, pleasantly shaken by a meeting with his baseball idol.

Even if we can't relate to someone throwing 95 miles per hour, we can certainly relate to that.

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Something about this blog post from the always interesting Rob Neyer struck a chord with me. In it, Neyer examines an article by David Murphy of Philly.com that discusses Phillies pitcher (and former Northwestern University star!) J.A. Happ. The gist is that Happ's great rookie season in 2009 has been deemed at least partially attributable to luck by sabermetric analysis that looks at Happ's FIP and another stats and sees a performance that likely is not sustainable in the long term.

Murphy asked Happ and the Phillies about it, and of course they disagree with that conclusion.

And the Neyer closes with this passage:

------
What's Happ going to say? "Yeah, they're right. I'm not nearly as good as my ERA says. All that work I've been doing since I was 8 years old didn't have anything to do with it. And yeah, it's really easy to stand out there and stare at Albert Pujols from 60 feet away."

I don't think so.

The implication sometimes is that people like me don't respect the talents of people like J.A. Happ.

I don't suppose I should speak for my colleagues, so I'll just tell you this: J.A. Happ, lucky or not, awes me. He's one of the most brilliant athletes on the planet, doing something that's incredibly rare and difficult. And that's all true whether Happ is the new Mark Redman or the new Tom Glavine.
------

This is exactly right, of course. In analyzing players, breaking down their faults and comparing them to each other, we tend to forget just how talented they are. Even if J.A. Happ "only" turns out to be a passable No. 4 starter rather than an ace, that still means he's better at throwing a baseball than 99.99 percent of people on Earth. If you or I stepped into the batters box against him, we probably wouldn't be able to even see the ball, let alone hit it. Few of us will be as good at any one thing as Happ is at pitching.

None of this makes Happ or any other Major Leaguer a great person -- we all have our talents and our faults -- but it's something to ponder.

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Like the 13-man pitching staff, Twitter has been all the rage for a while now, even as I never really saw the point of it.

Well, I still don't like the 13-man staff, but on Twitter, I'm relenting. You can find my page here:
http://twitter.com/HitTheCutoff

Don't worry, I won't be sharing any mundane details of my day-to-day life -- believe me, you would be bored to death -- but I will be tweeting quick reactions to breaking news and interesting links. In addition, if any of you have your own accounts, I hope Twitter will provide a platform on which we can interact and have a little back and forth.

So, if you're on Twitter, please follow me and feel free to share your opinions, ask questions,etc. And thanks for reading!

Anyone not living under a rock the past couple of years has the words "hope" and "change" imprinted on their brains.

But inspiring throngs of ardent supporters with visions of a better tomorrow is not the sole domain of people running for our nation's highest office (or any public office).

Baseball players employ this tactic as well as anyone, and Spring Training is the frantic climax of their campaign to win the hearts and minds of their teammates, coaches and fans, not to mention gullible fantasy baseball owners. It's truly amazing how everyone comes to camp in "the best shape of their life," or with a new batting stance, a new pitch, a new type of workout or with a personal chef in tow who is totally going to revolutionize this guy's diet.

I suppose it's human nature to look for reasons why this year will be better, whether you're the one doing the telling or the believing. And there's really not much harm in it, unless you're a decision-maker (real or fantasy) who's going to put more stock in someone's predicted re-birth than in the statistical evidence at hand.

I don't have the time, energy or means to look back at past claims of turning over new leaves to see how many actually resulted in some sort of sustained improvement. But let's put it this way: If every claim someone made in Spring Training turned out to be legitimate, MLB would have to bring back the long defunct second All-Star Game.

So without further adieu, let's take a quick look at just a few of the hopeful tales we've been told so far in Spring Training.

Who: Geovany Soto, C, Cubs
Change: 40 pounds lighter!
Hope: A more svelte Soto will return to the form he showed in 2008, when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Comment: Soto likely will improve upon his dreadful 2009, but it will probably have more to do with his batting average on balls in play returning to a normal range.

Who: David Wright, 3B, Mets
Change: One ticket to the gun show!
Hope: More muscle will mean a return to the home run numbers of years past.
Comment: Maybe Wright feels he needs the extra juice to clear the fences at Citi Field, but his power numbers were likely to move back toward his career averages anyways.

Who: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
Change: A new man, in body and mind!
Hope: A good attitude and a tighter waistline will help this once-top prospect get back on track.
Comment: A slimmer frame probably could help Young in the outfield, where he's been dreadful defensively the past two years.

Who: Kyle Farnsworth, P, Royals
Change: He's a starter -- with a new pitch!
Hope: A new changeup will help this inconsistent reliever blossom in the rotation.
Comment: Because what the Royals need is MORE innings from Kyle Farnsworth. But hey, it's worth a try.

Who: Gerald Laird, C, Tigers
Change: A new stance!
Hope: Resting his bat on his shoulder before the pitch will help him raise last season's .225 average.
Comment: A new stance on public brawling would be good too.

Baseball players, particularly ones who have not yet played a Major League game, are often built up to mythic proportions.

It's often said that people fear the unknown, but baseball fans in particular also take the unknown, wrap it in hyperbole and set themselves up for disappointment. Speaking partly from personal experience, I can attest to the fact that fringe prospects can become franchise saviors in a fan's mind.

But what is going on right now with Braves 20-year-old outfield prospect Jason Heyward is something else entirely. Heyward was a first-round pick in 2007, and going into last season, Baseball America rated him the game's No. 5 prospect. Then the 6-foot-4, 220-pound lefty went out and hit .323/.408/.555 at three minor league levels.

Expected to compete for a big league roster spot in Spring Training, Heyward is denting cars in the parking lot of the Braves' facility with his mammoth batting practice shots and drawing comparisons to Hank Aaron.

And so, the myth gains steam.

But is the man equal to the myth, or even in the neighborhood? Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if expectations are too high for the rookie, although he finds Heyward possesses an uncommon maturity that so far has left him unfazed by the attention he's getting.

Still, it's worth wondering, what is a reasonable expectation for Heyward this season?

FanGraphs lists two projections for Heyward, from Bill James and CHONE, and they vary pretty significantly. The James system sees a line of .303/.371/.465, compared with CHONE's much more conservative .258/.324/.416.

Of course, you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, especially with a rookie whose amount of playing time has not yet been decided.

So I thought it might be informative to look at some other prospects who came up around the same age, and see what they were able to do at the plate as rookies.

Ken Griffey, Jr., 1989, 19 years old -- .264/.329/.420 in 455 AB

Alex Rodriguez, 1994, 19 years old -- .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB.
1995, 20 years old -- .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB.

Andruw Jones, 1996, 19 years old -- .217/.265/.443 in 106 AB
1997, 20 years old -- .231/.329/.416 in 399 AB

Justin Upton, 2007, 20 years old -- .221/.283/.364 in 140 AB

Albert Pujols, 2001, 21 years old -- .329/.403/.610 in 590 AB

That's just a sampling, but it gives you an idea of what Heyward is up against.

He could, as some seem to expect, be another rookie Pujols. It's more likely that he will spend some time in the minors this year and struggle a bit in The Show. That's just how it works -- most of the time.

Then again, there are exceptions, which is what feeds to mythology in the first place. And that's part of what makes baseball great.

It's simple: In one more day, camps officially start opening, and pitchers and catchers officially start reporting.

Sure, only 12 teams start tomorrow, with the rest trickling in over the ensuing four days. And we don't get any actual games -- or at least what passes for games early in Spring Training -- until March.

But small victories are still victories, and after four months of no baseball at all, I'll take what I can get.

So to baseball fans everywhere, I say, "Rejoice!"

The dark months are almost over.

We're getting close.

Teams officially start reporting to Spring Training on Wednesday, so with two days left before then, I give you "2 Things I Want to Happen In '10."

Just two? Well, I certainly could think of a lot more. But hey, I'm not greedy.

1. I want the Rays to recapture the AL East championship.

You see, there are these two teams, the New York Somethings and the Boston, uh, I forget. Something to do with footwear, I think? It's so hard to remember, given their obscurity and utter lack of coverage in the media (What's with that West Coast bias, ESPN?).

In all seriousness though, the Rays winning the 2008 AL East title was so refreshing, I find myself wanting more. Sure, Yankees and Red Sox fans and the TV networks don't want it to happen, but I think a lot of others do. The fact is, the Yankees are probably too good not to win, and if they don't, the Sox probably will. Yet the (Not Devil) Rays have compiled a fantastic group of talent, and with a few breaks, you never know. In fact, the PECOTA projected standings for this season see the AL East as essentially a dead heat for the top three spots.

It's a fact that for the foreseeable future, New York and Boston are bound to win the vast majority of division crowns. Yes, they have a huge monetary advantage, but both teams also are spending their fortunes more wisely than ever before. Can't stop me from hoping, though.

2. I want another one-game playoff.

Incredibly, for three straight years, 162 games have not been sufficient to decide one of the pennant races. In 2007, it was the NL Wildcard, and for the past two seasons, it has been the AL Central. I say, let's keep it going.

For one thing, there is no such as too much baseball, so an extra game is never unwelcome, especially when the stakes are so high. And that's what makes these games so riveting: Each one is like a Game 7. What's more, all three play-in games have been incredible. Three years ago, the Rockies beat the Padres, 9-8 in 13 innings; two years ago, the White Sox outlasted the Twins 1-0 on Jim Thome's seventh-inning homer; last year, the Twins beat the Tigers 6-5 in one of the greatest games I've ever seen, finally pulling it out in the 12th inning.

On one hand, it seems unlikely this could happen for a fourth consecutive season. On the other hand, there figure to be several tight races in 2010 -- including in the AL Central, of course -- so don't count out the possibility. I know I'll be wishing for it.

Note: this post was scheduled to run Sunday but got delayed. The next post, "2 Things I Want To Happen In '10" will appear a little later today.

There are now just three days remaining until the first Spring Training camps open, which means at this point, every team out there possesses a sense of hope. Of course, for some that sense is built on nothing more than some wild optimism and a crossing of fingers. Here's to you, Royals.

But outside of the teams everyone expects to be in the postseason, there are plenty that have a legitimate shot, if a few things go their way. Here is a quick look at three of those clubs.

Texas Rangers -- Really, the whole AL West could be fascinating to watch this season. The Angels appeared to go backward this offseason, while the Mariners made some stellar acquisitions and the A's signed Ben Sheets to head a good young pitching staff.

The Rangers didn't do anything too flashy, but they did enough to build off a promising 2009 season and possibly dethrone the Angels. Last year, Texas led the division as late as July 10 and was still within 3.5 games on Sept. 4, before finishing 10 games out, with 85 wins. The Rangers then signed old nemesis Vladimir Guerrero to DH, added Rich Harden to the starting rotation, brought Colby Lewis back from Japan and inked Darren Oliver to help out in the pen.

Offensively, the Rangers need bounceback years from Chris Davis at first base and Josh Hamilton in center field, but mostly they need their starting pitching to hold together. Harden has to stay healthy, while pleasant surprises like Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter have to avoid sliding backward too far.

Cincinnati Reds -- If people don't pick the Cardinals to win the NL Central, they will probably go with the Cubs or even the Brewers. But don't sleep on the Reds.

Cincy produced the fourth-worst OBP in the majors last season, but that figures to improve simply on the basis of Willy Taveras no longer being around (although Dusty Baker might find a way to bat him leadoff anyways). Joey Votto already is an excellent hitter, Jay Bruce could be one soon, and young outfielders Drew Stubbs and Wladimir Balentien have some upside. The rest of the lineup is filled with solid veterans like Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen.

The pitching staff surprisingly finished in the top 10 in ERA last season. Edinson Volquez won't be back until sometime midseason after having Tommy John surgery in August, and while that's a big blow, the Reds could have enough arms around to overcome it. Nobody stands out in the current rotation, but Aaron Harang is way better than his 31 losses the last two years indicate, and there is room for vast improvement in guys like 23-year-old Homer Bailey.

Arizona Diamondbacks --When the D-backs made it to the 2007 NLCS, then started the next season 20-8 with a host of promising young players on the roster, it seemed as though they were poised to dominate the NL West for years. It hasn't happened. Arizona went on to miss the playoffs in 2008 and then last season finished last in the NL West, somehow falling five games behind the lowly Padres. Still, this season could be different.

If Brandon Webb comes back strong, Arizona has a premiere one-two punch with him and Dan Haren, while newly acquired Edwin Jackson should be a decent No. 3. Offensively, Justin Upton is already a star, and while Mark Reynolds isn't likely to hit 44 homers again, he should still be a solid middle-of-the-order contributor. Kelly Johnson was a solid acquisition at second base.

The D-backs do need a couple of guys to step up in the back end of the rotation, and young hitters like Stephen Drew and Chris Young must get it together. But with the Dodgers stagnated budget-wise, there's room for Arizona to rebound in the NL West.

Four more days until the first pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Therefore, it seems like a good time to look ahead to four potentially interesting series on the schedule for this season.

I didn’t include matchups between division rivals here, since those are pretty obvious and provide intrigue every year.

April 12, 14-15, Red Sox @ Twins – On the 12th, outdoor baseball will return to Minneapolis for the first time since 1981, the last year of old Metropolitan Stadium. Ever since, the Twins have been safely tucked away in the ugly but warm confines of the Metrodome. Until this season, that is. Target Field is opening its doors for this prime series against the Red Sox. These two teams figure to put on a good show, as long as they’re not frozen solid. The average temperature in Minneapolis in April is a high of 57 and a low of 36, with the record low being a balmy 2 degrees. At least all three games in this series are day games, with the first night contest taking place to start the following series against the Royals. For the sake of Twins fans, let’s hope Target Field has hot chocolate dispensers in the backs of every seat.

June 22-24, Cubs @ Mariners – This interleague series is certainly interesting on its own merits. These two teams figure to be playoff contenders, and the Cubs have visited Seattle only once before, in 2002. But these three games have another storyline as well: Milton Bradley’s first appearance against his last team. Bradley’s brief tenure in Chicago ended with him getting suspended late in the season. The veteran outfielder might have gotten some undeservedly rough treatment from fans and the media – his on-field performance wasn’t as bad as many perceived – but he never fit in a clubhouse that generally got along well. Even Ryan Dempster, a first-class act, said after Bradley’s suspension, “It became one of those things where you see him putting the blame on everybody else, and sometimes you have to look in the mirror and realize that maybe the biggest part of the problem is yourself and wanting to be there and wanting to play every day and wanting to have some fun. It didn't seem like he wanted to have very much fun, even from Spring Training.” There could be some serious tension here, assuming Bradley is still on the active roster at that point.

June 25-27, Yankees @ Dodgers – This will be the Bronx Bombers’ first trip to Chavez Ravine since 2004. These are two franchise with a ton of history between them, including 11 clashes in the World Series (four since the Dodgers left Brooklyn). And this series figures to come with both squads near or at the top of their respective divisions. A lot will be made of Joe Torre managing against his old club, but what’s really more interesting is what happens on the field, and this series could feature some exciting matchups. Personally I’m eager to see LA’s 22-year-old lefty strikeout machine Clayton Kershaw test his stuff against New York’s nightmare-inducing lineup, or closer Jonathan Broxton try to finish off a close game against A-Rod. Not to mention that Manny Ramirez against the Yankees tends to be entertaining.

Sept. 17-19, Angels @ Rays – Most of the series at the very end of the season are divisional matchups, as they should be, but this is one late-season interdivisional series that could have huge playoff implications. The Rays seem to be in position to stand up to the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East again, while the Angels likely will have their supremacy in the AL West challenged by at least two division competitors. Depending on how things shake out, this could even turn into a crucial battle for a wildcard berth. Plus, you have a showdown of the minds between Mike Scioscia and former bench coach Joe Maddon, now managing Tampa, and Angels pitcher Scott Kazmir potentially squaring off against his old team for the first time.

Tomorrow: 3 teams to keep an eye on

We’re now just five days away from pitchers and catcher reporting to Spring Training, and in honor of that, I’ve compiled a list of five intriguing players whom I will be following with great interest this season.

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds -- Bruce is an immensely talented, 22-year-old left-handed batter. His first two big league seasons, comprising 839 plate appearances, have been rather bizarre, however. While missing some time due to injury, Bruce has put up a line of .240/.309/.460, while pounding 43 homers. As detailed in this piece on FanGraphs, Bruce has put up a stunningly low .262 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), compared with the league average of around .300. While it is possible for a few individual hitters to consistently put up BABIPs that vary wildly from the norm, it’s certainly reasonable to think Bruce has been unlucky thus far and is due for a major upswing in 2010. Both the Bill James and CHONE projection systems have Bruce’s BABIP returning to the normal range, with his OPS rising into the high 800s and his wOBA into the .370s, making him a well above average hitter. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Brad Lidge, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies -- Relief pitchers are notoriously fickle, as the small number of innings they pitch can lead to wild fluctuations in performance due to sample size issues. But Lidge has taken the Jekyll and Hyde act to a different level, particularly the past two years. He was dominant in ’04-’05, putting up FIPs of 1.97 and 2.13. In ’06-’07, he was decent but not great, with FIPs of 3.79 and 3.88 and 14 blown saves. He was then spectacular during Philly’s 2008 championship run (2.41 FIP, 0 blown saves) and a complete disaster last season (5.45 FIP, 11 blown saves). Chances are, he will come back better than last season but not as good as two seasons ago, perhaps doing something comparable to his ’06-’07 campaigns (CHONE predicts a 4.10 FIP). But you never know – we could get another appearance from Unhittable Lidge or Meltdown Lidge.

Joel Piniero, RHP, Los Angeles Angels -- It’s not often that a pitcher, at age 30, completely reinvents himself. But that’s exactly what Piniero did last season with St. Louis, leading the majors in ground balls per balls in play thanks to a new two-seam fastball. He also managed to walk just 1.14 batters per nine innings. It’s unlikely he can duplicate that feat, which would make his bottom of the barrel strikeout numbers less palatable. Nonetheless, it will be fun to see if Piniero’s transformation is mostly permanent and he becomes a stellar back-of-the-rotation starter for the Angels, or if he regresses severely now that he’s back in his old division.

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs -- It’s hard to overstate how terrible Soriano’s 2009 was, as he hit .241/.303/.423. Combined with a -10.8 UZR in left field, that line pushed Soriano’s wins above replacement (WAR) into negative territory. His -0.7 mark was fifth-worst among qualified players in 2009. Of course, it must be noted that Soriano played much of the season with a balky knee that eventually required surgery. If he’s healthy in 2010, a bounceback is a near certainty (CHONE projects 1.8 WAR). On the other hand, Sori is 34, so you have to wonder how much is left in the tank for a guy who has five years and $90 million left on his contract. This season could give us a significant clue.

Ben Zobrist, IF/OF, Tampa Bay Rays-- Take a look at FanGraphs' 2009 WAR leaders for position players. You might be surprised to find out that the No. 1 guy on the list wasn't Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer or some other highly recognizable star. Nope, it was Zobrist, a little-known 28-year-old playing his first full big league season. How did he do it? Walks (91 of them, leading to a .405 OBP), home runs (27 of them, contributing to a .543 SLG), some luck (a .330 BABIP) and great defense (a 16.0 UZR in 91 games at 2B and an 11.5 mark in 59 games in RF, most notably). The question regarding the versatile Zobrist isn't so much if he can duplicate his 2009 season -- he almost certainly can't -- but rather if he can get somewhere close. The CHONE projection system suggests it's not likely. It has Zobrist's OBP falling to .368, his SLG falling to .463 and projects him to be good for 3.8 WAR. That's still quite good, but it wouldn't get Zobrist back atop any leaderboards. Then again, you never know. He could always surprise us again.

Tomorrow: 4 Series To Mark On Your Calendar

First off, sorry for the long delay between posts. I’ve taken a new job that involved moving across the country, and things got a little hectic on me.

But now I’m operational again, and it’s coming at the perfect time, as pitchers and catchers start reporting to Spring Training Feb. 17 (although some teams wait until the 21st). To mark the occasion, I’ll be posting a different list looking ahead at the new season every day between now and when the first camps open.

Since there are six days left until Feb. 17, today's list is "6 Most Interesting Off-Season Moves." These aren't necessarily the biggest or most important moves, just the ones that caught my attention the most.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays and deal Cliff Lee to the Mariners
This was the biggest deal of the offseason and also the most interesting because of the Phillies' decision to swap aces. Philly could have gotten Halladay and still kept Lee, but apparently felt that would have left their farm system in bad shape. Still, the prospects they gave up for Halladay are more highly regarded than those they picked up for Lee, and you have to wonder whether the difference between the two pitchers is big enough to make it all worthwhile. The Phillies still look like serious World Series contenders this season, but this pair of trades was a little puzzling.

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre
Neither Cameron nor Beltre has a particularly bigtime reputation, and they're both low batting average hitters. But both players are productive at the plate and superb with the glove -- Cameron in center field and Beltre at third base. These signings indicate Boston's newfound dedication to run prevention, something the organization shares with other cutting-edge teams like the Mariners and A's. Beltre and Cameron figure to be difference-makers in what could be a very tight AL East race.

Cardinals name Mark McGwire hitting coach; Cubs name Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
Putting aside the hubub of McGwire's PED admission, his hiring and that of Jaramillo are interesting as they relate to the issue of a batting coach's real impact on a team. The importance of these coaches at the big league level tends to be overstated in my opinion, making them easy scapegoats during tough times. But it will be fascinating to see how these two guys do. The Cubs' offense is poised for a rebound regardless of coaching, as it's hard to believe players like Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano will be as bad as they were last season, but Jaramillo has a sterling reputation and could provide an extra boost. McGwire has gotten glowing reviews from players who have worked with him privately and might make a difference for Cardinals hitters not named Albert Pujols.

Royals sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract
The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals.

A's sign Ben Sheets
Sheets missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and has started 25 or more games only once since 2004. But the small-market A's, looking to compete in what figures to be a rough-and-tumble AL West, outbid the competition for his services, inking Sheets to a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives. Will Sheets help keep Oakland in the playoff race, or at least stay healthy long enough to get flipped for prospects at the trade deadline? That remains to be seen.

Cubs trade Milton Bradley to Mariners for Carlos Silva
This was one of those classic "our problem for your problem" deals. Bradley had worn out his welcome in Chicago, to put it mildly, having been suspended from the team late in the season. Silva was making a lot of money and pitching terribly in Seattle. Basically this trade boiled down to the Cubs taking on the final two years of Silva's horrid deal in exchange for getting rid of Bradley plus acquiring some cash, which went toward signing Marlon Byrd. But while Bradley's situation in Chicago probably was untenable, he figures to produce a lot more than Silva this season and could be a real asset to the M's.

Tomorrow: 5 Intriguing Players to Watch in '10

Want me to make you feel old?

How about this: Sometime soon, a player born in the 1990s will debut in the majors. It could happen this year.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law recently put out his Top 100 prospects of 2010 list (Insider Only), and 20 guys born in the decade of grunge and pogs qualified. Rangers pitcher Martin Perez (No. 7) and Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro (No. 12) are Law’s highest-rated 90s players, and he gives both a chance to make it to the bigs this season after getting as high as Double-A in 2009.

The possibility we could see our first 90s baby on a major league field this season prompted me to scour baseball-reference.com to find the first players born in past decades to make it.

80s -- Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals. Pujols made the club out of spring training in 2001 and started in left field for the Redbirds against the Rockies on opening day, April 2. He went 1 for 3 and was never heard from again.

70s -- Wilson Alvarez, Texas Rangers. Signed by Texas out of Venezuela in 1986, Alvarez made one appearance in 1989, at age 19. He started a July 24 game against Toronto but faced five batters, retired none and gave up two homers before being pulled. His second start came Aug. 11, 1991 with the White Sox, and this time, Alvarez tossed a no-hitter against the Orioles. The rest of his career fell decidedly in between these first two starts, as Alvarez compiled a 3.96 ERA in 14 seasons.

60s -- Tim Conroy, Oakland Athletics. Conroy was Oakland’s first-round pick of the 1978 draft out a Pennsylvania high school. The A’s decided to get an immediate return on their investment, bringing the 18-year-old Conroy up with no minor league experience on June 23 of that year. He pitched one more game that season, didn’t appear in the big leagues again until 1982 and wound up pitching 135 career games (71 starts) with a 4.71 ERA.

50s -- Lloyd Allen, California Angels. Allen also came up as a teenager, on Sept. 1, 1969, one year after the Angels took him in the first round of the draft. He had a couple of solid seasons in relief for the Halos but was out of baseball by 1976, having logged a 4.69 ERA in 159 appearances.

40s – Dave Skaugstad, Cincinnati Reds. The Reds signed the 17-year-old southpaw in 1957 and brought him directly to the big leagues. He pitched two games and posted a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 innings, retiring Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Hank Aaron and Red Schoendienst in the process. But he never made it back to the big leagues, compiling a 5.06 ERA in five minor league seasons.

30s – Johnny Antonelli, Boston Braves. Antonelli was another lefty pitcher who was rushed straight to the big leagues, making his debut July 4, 1948, a few months after his 18th birthday. But unlike some of the other guys thrown right into the fire, Antonelli established a solid career, winning 126 games in 12 seasons and making five All-Star teams. In 1954, he put up a league-leading 2.30 ERA with the New York Giants to finish third in the MVP voting.

20s – Walt Masterson, Washington Senators. Masterson debuted May 8, 1939, more than a month before his 19th birthday, and pitched a scoreless inning of relief against the Indians. He pitched 14 big league seasons despite missing two to serve in World War II, splitting time between the rotation and bullpen and going 78-100 with a 4.15 ERA. He did make back-to-back All-Star squads in 1947 and 1948, starting the latter game for the AL.

10s – Joe Cicero, Boston Red Sox. On Sept. 20, 1929, at age 18, Cicero made his debut as a pinch-hitter against the Indians and smacked a single. The outfielder went on to a career that defines perseverance. He got 62 at-bats for the Sox in 1929-30 and then went back to the minors, where he stayed until 1945, when he was signed by the Philadelphia Athletics. Fifteen years after last stepping on a big league field, Cicero played in 12 games for the A’s. He finished his career with a .608 OPS and no home runs in 81 at-bats.

00s – John Cavanaugh, Philadelphia Phillies. Cavanaugh logged one at-bat on July 7, 1919 against the New York Giants and struck out. It was only about a month after his 19th birthday, but he never appeared in a major league game again.