Red Sox Midseason Report Part I
- Thursday, July 9, 2009 11:46 PM
- Written By: Red Sox Diaries
Through 85 games, Boston doesn't seem like a team that should have the best record in the American League.
Star slugger David Ortiz is struggling to hit his weight, and no regular has a batting average higher than .300. Opening Day shortstop Jed Lowrie has yet to return from his wrist injury, collecting just 18 at bats so far. Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the Disabled List for the second time this year, trying to recover from a crippling case of ineffectiveness: he is 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA (still "better" than Chien-Ming Wang, but not by much). Four-fifths of the starting rotation has an ERA above 4.00, and last year's breakout ace Jon Lester was still giving up more than six runs per nine innings in late May. Two weeks ago, Boston blew a 10-1 lead against Baltimore and lost 11-10 after the bullpen gave up five runs each in the seventh and eighth innings.
But the Red Sox have persevered to the tune of a 51-34 record. Here are eight thoughts -- one for each of Dice-K's disastrous starts -- about how they've done it and what the season might hold after the All-Star break. They will be broken up into multiple posts, with the first one today:
If the season ended now, Boston's bullpen would deserve the team's MVP
Early in the season, the Red Sox rotation was in shambles. The big three of Lester, Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett were prone to big innings and failed to work deep into games, putting a lot of strain on the bullpen. And the relievers responded in a big way.
It's hard enough to acquire two or three reliable bullpen arms. But the Sox have seven: Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard. That group has been instrumental to Boston's successful first half, and the biggest advantage it has over New York. While manager Terry Francona has had to rely on his relievers too much--and it's shown lately, as the 'pen has picked up four losses in the last 10 games--at least there have been plenty of options to spread around the workload.
If anything, the problem right now is that there are too many pitchers that need consistent work. Masterson hasn't been particularly effective recently, but he has been pitching very infrequently--multiple innings one night, then two-thirds of an inning in the next four games. It's tough to get into a rhythm that way, especially for a former starter who probably belongs in the rotation anyway. It's obviously better to have that issue than to be in a position where there aren't enough good relievers, but it's still an issue that needs to be resolved nonetheless. If anyone gets traded, Saito might be the most likely possibility for an NL team in desperate need of low-risk bullpen help.
While Ramirez and Papelbon sport stellar ERAs, there are a couple of warning signs with them as well. The main one for the former, received in an offseason trade for Coco Crisp, is his home run rate. He's already given up twice as many gopher balls this year (four) as last year (two), and he's done it in half as many innings. He's also striking out fewer batters than usual, though that should straighten itself out over time. As for Papelbon, his walk rate has skyrocketed in 2009--he has already issued a career-high 18 free passes, 10 more than he did last season. Additionally, he's giving up home runs at an increased rate and opposing batters are hitting .241 off of him--up nearly 100 points from two years ago. As a result, his WHIP is a very average 1.37.
Unquestionably, the bullpen has been vital to what the Red Sox have already been able to accomplish. But as this recent stretch suggests, it's unlikely to expect a repeat performance in the second half unless Francona subjects it to less wear and tear.
--Danny Daly (ddaly06)



