Red Sox Diaries

Now that the All-Star break is upon us, here's the second part of the Midseason Report:

The starting pitching has definitely started to come around--and it only figures to get better

Boston's rotation was its Achilles' heel in the early part of the season. Josh Beckett went 2-2 with a 7.22 ERA in five April starts, Brad Penny was allowing nearly one run per inning in the season's first month, Daisuke Matsuzaka was (and still is) a mess and Jon Lester's ERA was 6.07 after 10 starts. Only 90-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield provided any sort of consistency or stability. As a group, they were struggling to work deep into games, giving up too many home runs and prone to big innings.

Advanced statistics like FIP and BABIP suggested they were more unlucky than anything else and figured to turn it around sooner or later--and lately, they certainly have. Beckett and Wakefield are All-Stars, Penny and Lester finally have their ERAs below 5.00 (Lester's is actually below 4.00 now), and Matsuzaka...well, four out of five ain't bad. Plus, John Smoltz is off the Disabled List and has made four starts that suggest he still has some life left.

The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the starters' stats still aren't quite indicative of how well they're pitching. All five starters have FIPs below their ERAs, led by Smoltz's 2.27 FIP (versus a 5.40 ERA). That vast discrepancy is mainly a product of his unsightly .379 BABIP (while his career BABIP is almost 90 points lower). He's no longer as much of a strikeout pitcher as he was in his prime, but he's still ringing up 7.65 batters per nine innings and finding the strike zone early and often with a fastball he throws in the low 90s. Even Matsuzaka has been somewhat snakebitten (.443 BABIP), though his FIP of 5.72 is still utterly terrible.

Wakefield has been one of the best stories of the season. Sure, his 11-3 record is inflated because of his offensive support (6.23 runs per game) but he's labored through at least the sixth inning in 14 of his 17 outings and has 11 quality starts. As of late June, Fangraphs had his fastball rated as the most effective one in the game--even though it averages 72.7 mph and he throws it less than 10 percent of the time--because it's been such an effective complement to his knuckleball. Interestingly, his BABIP this year is .300 (the last season it was that high was 2001), so his ERA might get even better in the second half if that regresses more towards his career average of .281. It's hard to imagine him pitching much better than he is now, though, and it makes up for his ridiculous .247 BABIP a year ago. Wakefield has already surpassed last year's win total (10) as well.

Lester has been an intriguing case--he was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors, averaging 8.3 punch outs per nine innings, but in the majors that number usually hovered between 6.5 and 7. This season, he's striking out a career-high 10.3 batters per nine innings and has maintained his low walk rate from last year, giving him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.74--among the 10 best marks in the American League. Lester is just 21 strikeouts short of his 2008 total (152), and he's thrown 100 fewer innings. His fastball is about 1.5 mph faster on average than it was last season.

There's not too much to say about Penny, other than that he has given them adequate production as the fifth starter (99 ERA+, 1.48 WHIP) and they should trade him now while his stock is high and teams are desperate for rotation help. He's allowed 110 hits in 93.2 innings and is striking out fewer than six batters per nine innings--it's not like he's irreplaceable, and his numbers certainly don't match his reputation of a guy who has great stuff. They two excellent options in AAA (though Clay Buccholz got called up and will start against Toronto on Friday; I'll talk about him and Michael Bowden later). Justin Masterson is also wasting away in the bullpen, struggling with his undefined role and sporadic use.

Finally, maybe I'm overemphasizing how bad Matsuzaka has been so far, but consider this: opposing hitters have posted a line of .378/.443/.647 against him in 2009. Basically, every batter turns into Joe Mauer (.373/.447/.622) when they face Matsuzaka. That's absurd. After allowing the fewest hits per nine innings in baseball last season (6.9), Matsuzaka has given up more than double that in his eight starts this year and permits 2.22 baserunners per inning. Righties are hitting .412 against him with a .511 BABIP, and his walk rate is still extremely high (4.6 per nine innings). He has yet to complete six innings in a start this year. There has to be something wrong with him physically. Getting anything out of him the rest of the season would be a plus.

It never hurts to win the first eight games against the Yankees

Against all other teams in the majors this year, Boston is 46-34 and New York is 51-29. But when the two teams play each other, the Red Sox have a pretty incredible 8-0 edge. And that's the difference between the Yankees leading the AL East by five games and the Red Sox being in front by three.

For most of this decade, baseball's premier rivalry has been fairly evenly matched. Boston and New York have beaten the other one at least eight times in each of the last seven seasons. From the beginning of 2002 through 2005, their record was 45-45 in head-to-head play. Last year, the two teams played to a 9-9 draw. So what has happened so far this season is basically like flipping eight coins and having them all come up as heads. The probability of that occurring, by the way, is 1 in 256 (0.4 percent).

What's been most exciting is that the Red Sox don't seem to be lucking into these wins. They've beaten the Yankees in a variety of ways--a shootout (15-11, a game that also featured Boston's biggest comeback against New York in 41 years), an extra-innings game (5-4 in 11), a come-from-behind win late in the game (4-3, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth), three one-run wins, a shutout, a victory against all five of New York's starters, and sweeps in Boston and New York. It's been a perfect storm of sorts.

I mentioned this in an entry earlier in the season, but it seems like the tables have turned in terms of roster composition. Boston is the group of grizzled playoff veterans with excellent, reliable pitching (along with a decent offense), whereas New York has a stronger group of bats but much more inconsistent arms (especially in the bullpen, other than Mariano Rivera). So this recent dominance might not just be a temporary thing--though it's probably safe to say that 18-0 is out of the question.

Ortiz's power is making a return...just don't be expect him to carry the offense anymore

It's been a wild first 88 games for a guy who used to be one of the most feared hitters in baseball. At the end of May, he was still hitting well below the Mendoza line (.185) with only one home run and 18 RBIs in 178 at bats. He was briefly dropped all the way down to seventh in the order.

Now, miraculously, Ortiz is up to 12 homers--which is more than Todd Helton, one of the guys who Boston is rumored to be pursuing, has hit in 2009. Big Papi had a scorching-hot June, equaling his RBI total from the first two months of the season to go along with a 1.062 OPS. His batting average in July is down to .200, but half of his eight hits have left the yard and three-fourths of them have gone for extra bases.

It should probably be noted that 10 of Ortiz's 12 home runs have come at Fenway Park (where he has a .504 slugging percentage) this year, and that one-third of his longballs were in interleague play against the weaker National League. He has victimized the Yankees three times, though.

Ortiz is still valuable to this Red Sox lineup. Boston is 17-2 when Big Papi homers or picks up multiple hits (including 6-0 when he does both). The problem is that he's making a significant impact less than one-quarter of the time. His walk rate of 12 percent is his lowest since 2004, and his strikeout rate is his highest ever in significant action. Big Papi's percentage of swings outside of the strike zone is his most since Fangraphs started charting the stats for him in 2002, another somewhat troublesome sign.

Time will tell if this is a legitimate resurgence for Big Papi, or if it's just his last hurrah--there seems to be more evidence to support the latter. But appreciate it it while it lasts, because getting this many productive at bats--heck, any productive at bats--out of Big Papi seemed nearly impossible two months ago.

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Check back for the third and final installment on Wednesday. Until then, enjoy the Home Run Derby and All-Star game--though both will feel weird without Ortiz there.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

In the midst of a season that has been pretty up-and-down, Boston's second straight sweep of New York might be the most exciting development. It's no secret that the Red Sox typically have their way with the Yankees in the first half of the season before fading after the All-Star break to lose the season series and (except for last year) the division. So in some ways, this start isn't particularly out of the ordinary.

The difference this season is that Boston seems to match up against New York much better than it has in the past. Usually the Yankees are the ones who have the stronger, deeper pitching staff and a more battle-tested ballclub. But that doesn't seem to be the case this year.

This short two-game series was a good representation of the problem with the composition of New York's rotation. Young budding stars Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain started games 1 and 2 for the Yankees. while both have undeniable talent, there's one major issue: they don't pitch deep enough into games to take advantage of it. They have 40 starts combined in their careers, and have completed the seventh inning just four times -- or, once every 10 starts. Neither of them has ever pitched into the eighth inning, let alone go all nine frames. Simply put, that just isn't going to cut it, and certainly not against Boston.

General manager Theo Epstein is one of the new-age baseball executives who study statistics extensively and target guys who work the count and get on base a lot. Because the Red Sox have a patient lineup that isn't adverse to drawing a walk, opposing starters tend to run up a high pitch count fairly quickly. Combine that with pitchers like Chamberlain and Hughes who are already susceptible to short outings, and the result isn't pretty.

Hughes has gotten roughed up in both of his career starts against the Sox, allowing nine earned runs in only six innings. Chamberlain has had some more success against Boston -- he even pitched seven innings in one meeting last year. But when he gives them trouble, such as on nights like Wednesday in which he struck out 12 hitters, the Sox can wait him out until he has thrown more than 100 pitches -- the point around which he is usually removed for a reliever.

That's the most crippling side effect of Hughes' and Chamberlain's inability to eat up innings. The Yankees' bullpen is highly suspect, and Boston knows it has a much better opportunity to break the game open when Damaso Marte, Jose Veras or Jonathan Albaladejo is on the hill. Even Mariano Rivera no longer seems invincible, though the Sox have always had more success against him than most teams, anyway. Compare this to Boston, which effectively has two shutdown closers (Jonathan Papelbon and Takashi Saito, when healthy) and two set-up relievers with ERAs below 1.00 (Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez). In addition, the lefties have been decent: Hideki Okajima seems to be getting his act together, and rookie Hunter Jones has been impressive at times.

In 2003, the last time New York was in the World Series, four starters threw 200 innings or more and made at least 30 starts. In 2008? Two pitchers accomplished that feat, and neither one topped 210 innings (which the four pitchers on the '03 squad all managed to do).

The rest of New York's rotation also leaves a lot to be desired, at least when facing the Red Sox. CC Sabathia, the only reliable workhorse in the rotation, is 2-4 lifetime against Boston. A.J. Burnett has enjoyed some success, but was knocked around for eight runs against the Sox earlier this season. Boston has had Andy Pettitte's number since he returned to the Bronx from Houston. And Chien-Ming Wang? A career 4.82 ERA against the Sox -- and all that was before he totally lost it at the beginning of this season.

Also, Pettitte is the only member of that group to have pitched in a World Series, and just one of two pitchers (with Rivera being the other) on the whole staff. Every one of Boston's original starting five (Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny) has done so -- in fact, each one of them has won a World Series. John Smoltz, who should be back in the middle of the summer, is another seasoned, successful October veteran.

Obviously Alex Rodriguez didn't play in any of the five games so far, and even on one leg he would be an upgrade at the plate and in the field over banjo-hitting converted shortstop Angel Berroa. But it might not matter if the Yankees have to keep leaning on their bullpen, which is repeatedly proving to be not-so-reliable.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

Considering all of the star power in Boston's rotation at the start of the year, many expected it to be one of the team's primary strengths. Three of the five starters are in their 20s, with another slightly older but just two years removed from his best season. Four have finished among the top-4 vote-getters for a Cy Young Award, while the other has thrown a no-hitter. All but one makes upwards of $5 million per year.

So it's a pretty big surprise that the oldest, cheapest member of the rotation has an ERA that is 2.5 runs lower than the next-best starter. That says as much about Tim Wakefield as it does the state of the Red Sox starting pitching.

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Wakefield's career has been full of ups and downs--fitting for a pitcher who throws a knuckleball that flutters all over the place. He originally burst onto the scene in 1992 for the Pittsburgh Pirates. As a 25-year-old rookie, Wakefield went 8-1 with a 2.15 ERA over the final two months of the regular season, then won twice against Tom Glavine in the NLCS versus the Atlanta Braves. Both were complete games, the second of which forced a Game 7 (which the Braves won in dramatic come-from-behind fashion).

His sophomore season was a total trainwreck, with an ERA that more than doubled and almost twice as many losses as wins. Wakefield spent the whole next season in the minors, then was released in late April of the following year. The Sox picked him up right away and, perhaps against all odds, he has been a fixture on their staff ever since. He rewarded Boston with his best season during the rest of 1995: a 17-8 record, 2.95 ERA, 6 complete games and a third-place Cy Young finish.

The next five years were a struggle--his ERA climbed above 5.00 in three of them. Wakefield's role was also in flux, as he began to shuttle back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. He even served as the closer for a few months in 1999. (Think about how bizarre it is to have a knuckleballer trying to protect leads in the ninth inning--I'm pretty sure he was the first closer since Hoyt Wilhelm back in the 1950s and 1960s to throw a knuckleball.)

He was moved back to the rotation for good in 2003 and has been a model of consistency ever since: his ERA has always fallen between 4.00 and 5.00, with 30 or more starts and at least 10 wins (except for 2006, when lower back problems cut his season short and threatened his career). He has also always come through when Boston has needed him to. Wakefield won two games in the 2003 ALCS and had a combined 9-2 record in August during the two World Series-winning years, helping to put the Sox in a good position to make the playoffs.

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And now, with Boston's starting pitching faltering, Wakefield is coming though again. He already has two complete games, which matches the combined total of his past three seasons. His near-shutout in the third game of the Oakland series back in the second week saved the bullpen and sparked the 11-game winning streak. Tonight was not his best effort, but Boston broke out of their hitting slump so it didn't end up mattering.

Here's the issue, though: it's never a good sign when your most reliable starter is soon to be 43 years old and relies on a pitch that's about to go the way of the Dodo. Josh Beckett has allowed more than a run per inning in four starts since Opening Day. Jon Lester's strikeout rate is up, but his location has been poor all season long. Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the Disabled List with some kind of recurring condition that prevents him from throwing strikes. And Brad Penny has just been plain awful.

The Sox can't continue at their current pace when their starters are having trouble getting out of the sixth inning--they average less than 5 2/3 innings per outing. There have been five occasions that someone has completed seven innings; Wakefield has done it three of those times. A third of Boston's wins have come after trailing or being tied at the halfway point--that trend cannot hold up all season long. In all, they've been trailing after four innings in more than half of their games. An incredible amount of pressure is being put on the bullpen already, and though it is holding up extremely well so far, at this rate it will be burnt out by August. Both Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez have yet to give up a run, but both are also on pace to pitch the most innings of their careers.

So yes, Wakefield is a great story. And yes, everything has been working out well to this point. But Boston's winning model is unsustainable in the long run. Their starters' ERA is 5.68, which ranks 28th out of 30 major league teams. Five of the last nine World Series winners have been in the top 8 in rotation ERA, with all but one team (the '06 Cardinals, who weren't really that good of a team anyway until the playoffs) in the top half of the league. Taking into account the World Series runner-ups from this decade as well, the average starters' ERA ranking of teams that win the pennant is eighth.

If Boston doesn't start getting better production out of its rotation, we could be looking at a repeat of 2006. The Sox got off to a hot start that year as well, but the rotation ultimately doomed their playoff chances--the starters had an ERA of 5.00, 24th-best (or 6th-worst) in the MLB.

Nobody wants to go through that again.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)