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This week’s Hot trends may not seem as impressive as previous weeks' at first glace, but these trends have been some of the best performers in the last 2 months. The Trend Value listed below refers to the performance of these trends for the entire season, but these trends represent the best performers over the past 2 and a half months that have still maintained a positive overall value. That is to say, all of these trends have returned profits over the past 2 and a half months, most of which are at a high value. Without further delay, this week’s Hot Trends:

19 Hot Trends for Investors to take Note of (Updated April 20, 2011)
League		Hot Trend	Trend Record	Trend Value
EPL		Birmingham Picking Under	5-0	+455
EPL		Blackburn Rovers Totals	12-6	+492
EPL		Everton Picking Under	6-2	+346
EPL	West Brom Totals on the Road		9-2	+619
La Liga	Atletico Madrid Totals at Home		8-1	+628
La Liga	Hercules Value on Losing		8-8	+387
La Liga	Real Zaragoza Totals at Home		10-2	+710
La Liga	Valencia Side Value on Road		10-10	+586
Bundes	Bayern Munich Totals at Home		5-1	+355
Bundes	Borussia Dortmund Value on Winning		16-5	+1,430
Bundes	Borussia Monchegladbach Totals at Home		5-1	+355
Bundes	Nurnberg Value on Winning		9-8	+1,558
Bundes	Schalke 04 Picking Under		4-1	+264
Serie A	VfL Wolfsburg Totals at Home		7-5	+137
Serie A	Cagliari Totals at Home		4-1	+264
Serie A	Cesena Totals		8-5	+228
Serie A	Chievo Value on Draw		7-10	+1,050
Serie A	Sampdoria Value on Losing		11-15	+964
Serie A	Udinese Value on Winning		13-7	+1,661
	Combined Record/Value		157-90	+12,489

For those who do not understand what value situation means, there are 2 types of Value situations:

1. Totals (Overs/Unders): AccuScore identifies a value situation as the Total that results from over 50% of the 10,000 simulations that AccuScore performs for every match.

For Example (see image below): In last month’s AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur Champions League match, the Over/Under was 2.5 goals. 52.0% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations ended with the teams combining for Under 2.5 goals. As such, AccuScore found value in picking the Under 2.5 goals. The match ended 0-0.

2.Side Value: AccuScore converts public bookies' odds for every possible result into a percentage out of 100% (identified as “Line%” in each Game Forecast). Then, AccuScore performs its simulations independently of the bookies’ probabilities to arrive at its own AccuScore probabilities for each outcome (ACC%). In every match forecast, AccuScore presents the “Line %” to be compared with the “ACC%” in the “Live Betting Predictions Box.” If the ACC% is higher than the Line% for any of the possible results, AccuScore views that result to have value (in some cases more than 1 result).

For Example (see image below): Let’s review the 1st leg of the Champions League match between Manchester United and Chelsea:
Line%: Manchester United to win – 25.5%; Chelsea to win – 44.8%, and Draw 29.7%
ACC%: Manchester United to win – 36.4%; Chelsea to win – 34.2%, and Draw 29.4%.

According to the ACC% and Line% below, AccuScore found value in picking Manchester United to win because the ACC% was greater than the line% for Manchester United to win but not for Chelsea to win or the draw. Manchester United won 1-0, so 100 units placed on Manchester United would have yielded a profit of +284 units according to the image below.

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($29.95/month, Try it for Free) as a reference tool to become smarter investors.

Click here for this week’s Updated Expert Trend Pick Review

Continuing on our end of the season attack, AccuScore built on last week’s successes by going 2 for 3 and returning 31% in profit this weekend.

In AccuScore’s first pick, AccuScore projected clear value in Valencia winning at Almeria, and Valencia managed a clear 3-0 victory. Then, AccuScore used trend analysis to determine that Under 2.5 goals was the correct play in the Blackburn at Everton contest, and that match ended 2-0 in Everton’s favor. The only misstep on the weekend came from AccuScore’s decision to favor Barcelona over Real Madrid, however, with Barcelona seeing +158 (2.580) odds, that pick definitely had value. Ultimately, the net result was a profit of 94 units on 300 units of investment, or 31% ROI.

With the AccuScore Super Computer’s calculations tuning up with every match, we anticipate the Super Computer will continue finishing strong from now until the end of the season.

If you’re not a member, this is the best time to get in at the Spring Special of $29.95/month, AccuScore Soccer Advisor is a must-have for any enthusiast: Try it for Free for 3 days

Recap: Expert Picks - As of April 18, 2011
Picks	Investment	Return on Investment	%ROI
April 8, 2011	500	+78	+16%
April 11, 2011	100	+91	+91%
April 15, 2011	300	+94	+31%
Total	900	+263	+29%

After making 10,000 units worth of Expert picks and still keeping above the positive side of the beak-even line this season, AccuScore launched a new Expert Pick series last week. This series is designed to focus on our performance during the last month and a half of the season—“winning time.” AccuScore’s Super Computer is now basing calculations on current season statistics to a greater degree than earlier in the season. Consequently, AccuScore anticipates the Super Computer will finish strong, as is the trend with our other sports.

If you’re not a member, this is the best time to get in at the Spring Special of $29.95/month, AccuScore Soccer Advisor is a must-have for any enthusiast: Try it for Free for 3 days

AccuScore made picks in 5 matches last week, and we returned profits in 3 of those 5 matches, leading to a Return on Investment of 28%. See details below:

Recap: Expert Picks - As of April 14, 2011
Picks	Investment	Return on Investment	%ROI
April 8, 2011	500	+78	+16%
April 11, 2011	100	+91	+91%
Total	600	+169	+28%

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product as a reference tool which provides odds, individual goal scoring probabilities, and much more ($29.95/month, Click here for a FREE 3-day trial).

Click here for this week’s Soccer Hot Trends

AccuScore Soccer continues to provide select Hot Trends for members to take note of. This week, we shared 17 Hot Trends that have not only been profitable for the season, but they have also been profitable over the past 2 months and the last 2 weeks. For a deeper understanding of what “Side Value” and “Totals” mean, please read our examples below this week’s trends.

Now, without further adieu, here are this week’s Hot Trends:

17 Hot Trends for Investors to take Note of (Updated April 14, 2011)
League		Hot Trend	Trend Record	Trend Value
EPL		Birmingham Picking Under	5-0	+455
EPL		Birmingham Value on Draw	9-8	+1,586
EPL		Everton Totals at Home	8-5	+228
EPL	Liverpool Totals on Road		8-2	+528
EPL	Sunderland Side Value at Home		12-11	+1,310
La Liga	Atletico Madrid Totals at Home		8-1	+628
La Liga	Barcelona Value on Winning		9-0	+213
La Liga	Real Zaragoza Totals at Home		10-2	+710
Bundes	Borussia Monchengladbach Totals at Home		5-1	+355
Bundes	Hannover 96 Totals at Home		8-2	+528
Bundes	Hannover 96 Value on Winning		7-5	+1,784
Bundes	Nurnberg Totals at Home		10-2	+710
Bundes	Nurnberg Value on Winning		9-8	+1,558
Serie A	Bari Side Value - All		20-22	+1,011
Serie A	Catania Totals at Home		3-0	+273
Serie A	Napoli Value on Winning		9-7	+549
Serie A	Udinese Side Value at Home		12-9	+1319
	Combined Record/Value		152-85	+13,745

For those who do not understand what value situation means, there are 2 types of Value situations:

1. Totals (Overs/Unders): AccuScore identifies a value situation as the Total that results from over 50% of the 10,000 simulations that AccuScore performs for every match.

For Example (see image below): In last month’s AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur Champions League match, the Over/Under was 2.5 goals. 52.0% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations ended with the teams combining for Under 2.5 goals. As such, AccuScore found value in picking the Under 2.5 goals. The match ended 0-0.

2.Side Value: AccuScore converts public bookies' odds for every possible result into a percentage out of 100% (identified as “Line%” in each Game Forecast). Then, AccuScore performs its simulations independently of the bookies’ probabilities to arrive at its own AccuScore probabilities for each outcome (ACC%). In every match forecast, AccuScore presents the “Line %” to be compared with the “ACC%” in the “Live Betting Predictions Box.” If the ACC% is higher than the Line% for any of the possible results, AccuScore views that result to have value (in some cases more than 1 result).

For Example (see image below): Let’s review the 1st leg of the Champions League match between Manchester United and Chelsea:
Line%: Manchester United to win – 25.5%; Chelsea to win – 44.8%, and Draw 29.7%
ACC%: Manchester United to win – 36.4%; Chelsea to win – 34.2%, and Draw 29.4%.

According to the ACC% and Line% below, AccuScore found value in picking Manchester United to win because the ACC% was greater than the line% for Manchester United to win but not for Chelsea to win or the draw. Manchester United won 1-0, so 100 units placed on Manchester United would have yielded a profit of +284 units according to the image below.

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($29.95/month, Try it for Free) as a reference tool to become smarter investors.

The Cardinals had already suffered an injury to a superstar losing Adam Wainwright before the season. Now leftfielder Matt Holliday is out after surgery Friday for an emergency appendectomy.

There is reason for hope however for St. Louis. Holliday could potentially be out as little as two weeks. The team did not immediately put him on the disabled list just in case he could return earlier. In the mean time, Jon Jay and Allen Craig should adequately fill in over the next two weeks.

Even if Holliday is out for a full month, it’s not the end of the world for the Cards. Below is the impact of this injury. Losing Holliday for a sixth of the season cost them only 0.8 wins and -1.7 percent at the division. If he can return earlier, those numbers would be even smaller.

	Projected  W-L	DIVISION	PLAYOFFS
w/Holliday	86.3 – 75.7	30%	37.8%
w/o Holliday	85.5 – 76.5	28.3%	35.5%
Impact	-0.8 W	-1.7%	-2.3%

WEST

Duke vs. Arizona
Now that Kyrie Irving looks to be fully healthy and ready to play a full complement of minutes, Duke is the biggest favorite in this round.  The Blue Devils are winning 82.3 percent of simulations with Smith, Singler, and Irving being projected for 49.7 points combined.  Arizona’s problem in this game is its defense namely in that it doesn’t force turnovers or defend inside the three-point line.  The Wildcats allow their opponents to shoot better than 50 percent inside the arc while the Dukies are 17th in the nation in 2P%.  It’s just not a good match-up.

San Diego State vs. UCONN
This game is forecasted to be the biggest coin flip of the round with Connecticut winning just under 52 percent of simulations.  The Aztecs had never won a tournament game before this season, and are now playing their toughest opponent of the season.  They previously gave up 98 points to Jimmer Fredette over 3 games, and Kemba Walker is just a big of a scoring threat.  Steve Fisher likely won’t be able to use bigger defenders like Malcolm Thomas and Kawhi Leonard against Walker either like he was against Fredette.  Walker likes to attack much more off the dribble, and might be the quickest player in the nation.  If SDSU isn’t able to play effective team defense to force Walker to rely on his teammates, it likely won’t advance.

SOUTHEAST

Wisconsin vs. Butler
The Badgers are probably the biggest beneficiaries in the tournament from upsets.  They started the tournament as the fourth favorite in the Southeast at 10 percent, but are now the most likely team to reach the Final Four out of the region at 30.8 percent.  They are winning 55.6 percent of simulations against Butler, and play the kind of efficient style that just wins basketball games.  The key match-up here will be between guards Jordan Taylor and Shelvin Mack, both of whom are capable of breaking out for 25+ points.  Neither team is projected to turn the ball over much (16.1 combined) so every possession will be crucial in this contest.

Florida vs. Brigham Young
While Florida as the 2-seed is just the third favorite to win this region, it is still very close to its competitors at 25.5 percent.  BYU is favored to win this game coming out on top in 53.8 percent of simulations with Jimmer Fredette scoring 32.2 points on average.  The big thing to watch here will be BYU’s shooting against Florida’s defense.  BYU is projectd to shoot just 40 percent from the field, but be +4.6 points on the free throw line.  Florida meanwhile is projected to shoot a robust 48 percent from the field.   The Gators have shot 52.6 percent in the tournament while hitting 14 three-pointers. If that hot shooting continues, Florida might just be able to pull away from BYU, and use its superior size to control the boards and the game.  Jimmer probably needs to not only score, but to attack and get to the free throw line to get Florida’s big men in foul trouble.  Chandler Parsons has been dominant without scoring much notching 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists in the two games.  He will probably be the toughest match-up for the Cougars playing inside-out at 6-foot-10.

SOUTHWEST

Kansas vs. Richmond
The Rams are the one true Cinderella in this tournament having won neither the regular season CAA crown nor the tournament title.  They also had to beat USC just to enter the main draw.  Their reward for reaching the second weekend is top-seeded Kansas which is a heavy favorite to win this game, and to win the region.  The Jayhawks are winning 76.9 percent of simulations making them the second most likely team to advance to a regional final.  They are also the biggest favorites to reach the Final Four at 56 percent by virtue of three double-digit seeds remaining.  If Kansas were to make it to Houston it will have only had to face a 16, 9, 12, and 10/11. 

Florida State vs. VCU
While this is the only game between two double-digit seeds, it could be just as competitive as those between top seeds in the other regions.  The Seminoles are the favorite at 62.6 percent behind possibly the best defense remaining in the tournament.  Star Chris Singleton played only 26 minutes in the first two rounds coming back from injury, but he is expected to play a much more prominent role in this game.  With him, the Florida State defense gets that much tougher.  The real question is if the Noles offense will be the revved up machine it was against Notre Dame, or the mediocre one from the regular season and in the opener against Texas A&M.  VCU will need to continue its elevated level of play in the tournament, and keep the pressure up against FSU which is prone to turnovers.

EAST

Ohio State vs. Kentucky
Kentucky started the tournament as one of the strongest 4-seeds, but now it goes up against what appears to be the dominant team in the tournament:  Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have only lost twice this season, and won their previous two games by an average of 30.5 points.  Of course, last year Kentucky was the dominant team winning its three tournament games by more than 25 points on average, and then lost in the regional final.  Ohio State though looks to be as complete a team as there is, and is winning 58.7 percent of simulations.  Neither team is particularly deep with the starting fives loaded with top-rate talent.  The big difference categories are turnovers and assists.  The Buckeyes are sharing the ball much better in simulations as well as taking care of the ball.  They are projected to commit four fewer turnovers than the Wildcats.  That gives them the likely edge in this game.

North Carolina vs. Marquette
This game looks like another showcase for freshman Harrison Barnes.  He is projected for 21.3 points and 6 rebounds as the Tar Heels are winning 62 percent of simulations.  North Carolina is shooting 49 percent in simulations compared to just 43 for Marquette.  The Golden Eagles will need to press their projected advantage in turnovers (+4.6) to offset the superior shooting and scoring for UNC.

AccuScore is still undergoing our preparations for the Major League Baseball season, but we now have our early win total forecasts for every team. Keep in mind these numbers are preliminary so check back after the weekend for up-to-date information before the start of the season.

TEAM	LINE	ACC	DIFF
Minnesota Twins	86.0	94.5	8.5
Tampa Bay Rays	84.5	89.0	4.5
Cincinnati Reds	84.5	88.8	4.3
Texas Rangers	86.5	90.4	3.9
Los Angeles Dodgers	84.0	87.5	3.5
San Francisco Giants	88.0	91.2	3.2
Arizona Diamondbacks	72.5	75.4	2.9
Detroit Tigers	83.5	86.3	2.8
San Diego Padres	76.0	78.6	2.6
Chicago White Sox	85.5	86.7	1.2
Atlanta Braves	88.0	89.0	1.0
Milwaukee Brewers	85.5	86.2	0.7
Philadelphia Phillies	97.0	97.6	0.6
Boston Red Sox	95.0	95.0	0.0
Florida Marlins	82.0	82.0	0.0
Washington Nationals	71.0	71.0	0.0
Oakland Athletics	83.5	83.2	-0.3
St. Louis Cardinals	85.0	84.7	-0.3
Seattle Mariners	70.0	68.9	-1.1
Houston Astros	71.5	69.8	-1.7
New York Yankees	91.5	89.5	-2.0
Toronto Blue Jays	76.5	73.9	-2.6
Pittsburgh Pirates	68.0	64.9	-3.1
Los Angeles Angels	83.0	79.6	-3.4
Colorado Rockies	86.0	82.2	-3.8
New York Mets	77.5	73.6	-3.9
Baltimore Orioles	76.0	70.0	-6.0
Cleveland Indians	71.0	64.2	-6.8
Chicago Cubs	81.5	74.2	-7.3
Kansas City Royals	69.5	62.2	-7.3

Some quick thoughts on the lines looking at the AccuScore projections:

Philadelphia Phillies – 97 Line, 97.6 Projection
The Phillies are the massive favorite in the National League with their win total set at 97. No other NL team has a line set within 8.5 wins of them (the Giants and Braves are second at 88). This is because of the four aces at the top of the rotation. While the starting pitching will be dominant barring injury, there are plenty of worries in the lineup. Chase Utley’s injury status is completely up in the air, and with Domonic Brown also out to start the season there is little depth on the bench. If Ben Francisco struggles in a full-time role, there is nobody else to replace him. Fans should also be concerned about the declines of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez. Given these risk factors, the under is probably a better bet.

Minnesota Twins – 86 Line, 94.5 Projection
The Twins have the biggest difference between their betting line and their projected line at 8.5 wins. I would caution going overboard with this pick because a big part of this projection is based on health for the five starters. There is some leeway there with Kevin Slowey being a very good sixth option that many teams would fight to include in the middle of their rotations, but there are also other question marks. Alexi Casilla will be playing shortstop full-time for the first time, and it remains to be seen how well Tsuyoshi Nishioka adjusts to the majors. Still, this franchise seems to find a way to win games every year and their status as AL Central favorites is well deserved. The Over is clearly within reach, particularly if Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan return to health. Just don’t see the +8.5 difference and bet the farm.

Baltimore Orioles – 76 Line, 70.0 Projection
There is a lot of possible leeway here with Baltimore given the youth and talent in the starting rotation. Most of that talent though appears to be at least a year away from real success especially given the difficulty of the AL East. In the spring every fanbase is optimistic about the season, and the tendency is for the public to lean towards the Over. It’s virtually mathematically impossible for every team in a division to all beat their opening lines, and at this point Baltimore is clearly the fifth team in the AL East. Derek Lee and Vlad Guerrero aren’t the same players as they used to be. I like the Under.

SOUTHWEST REGION (San Antonio)

Top seed:  Kansas
Rock chalk Jayhawk: Kansas is the tournament favorite at 10.15 percent to win it all, the only team in double-digit percentage-wise.  KU is also the most likely team to reach each successive round.  Last year’s loss to Northern Illinois proved that being the pre-tournament favorite means little, but it would take another massive upset for this team to not reach at least the regional final.  And if talented freshman Josh Selby can find his misplaced offense, this team would be all the more dangerous.

Team to avoid:  Vanderbilt
Vandy finished with seven losses in the SEC and enter the tournament having lost four of its last seven games.  The Commodores are the least likely 5-seed to even win a game and advance to each successive round.  They are projected as underdogs to Richmond with the Spiders winning 58 percent of simulations. 

Underseeded:  Georgetown
While the Hoyas didn’t actually deserve a higher seed after losing four games in a row, they are capable of much more.  Point guard Chris Wright got hurt early in the 2nd half against Cincinnati, the first loss in this current slide.  Without Wright, Georgetown’s offense ground to a complete halt.  But now Wright is back and if he is healthy his team can present problems for both Purdue and Notre Dame.  Georgetown should be wary however of a potential game vs. 11-seed USC which first must beat VCU to enter the tournament proper.

Mighty mid-major:  Richmond
While Richmond is the 12-seed, you wouldn’t know it by looking at its second round simulation. The Spiders are the favorite against Vanderbilt and by a sizable margin as well winning 58 percent of the time.  They were thought to be a lock for an at-large, but the fact they were seeded 12th showed that they did have to win the A-10 tournament.  Unluckily for Vandy, the Spiders are much better than their seed indicates.

SOUTHEAST REGION (New Orleans)

Top seed:  Pittsburgh
This could finally be the year for Pitt.  Despite all the regular season success in the past decade under Jamie Dixon and Ben Howland, the Panthers haven’t made the Final Four since 1941.  While many analysts consider the Southeast to be the easiest region, our simulations simply believe that it is completely wide open.  More teams could plausibly advance here than in any other leaving Pitt the least likely one-seed to make it to Houston at 25.4 percent.  The Panthers should be cheering for Florida as they are four percent more likely to beat the Gators.

Team to avoid:  St. John’s
While the Johnnies ran off a string of impressive wins in the Big East, they did also have a stretch where they lose five of six and closed losing two of their final four games.  They will also be without D.J. Kennedy who is injured, and he leaves Dwight Hardy without much help on the wing.  St. John’s has a smaller probability of advancing to the Sweet 16 (17.7 percent) than both 8-seed Butler and 9-seed Old Dominion.

Underseeded:  Old Dominion
The Monarchs have the best chance of beating a top seed (38.6 percent) than any other 8 or 9-seed in the tournament.  They enter the tournament having won 9 straight, and are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation.  If Old Dominion can get Pitt in a slowdown slugfest, it would be very interesting to see if its rebounding strength would still manifest itself against a bigger more athletic opponent.

Mighty mid-major:  BYU
While the Cougars are hardly a mid-major, they are still the second most likely team to advance out of this region at 18 percent.  Imagine if they still had Brandon Davies to go along with Jimmer Fredette.  BYU benefits from St. John’s losing D.J. Kennedy, and a weak 2-seed in Florida.  The Cougars are forecasted to win 58 percent of simulations against the Gators.

WEST REGION (Anaheim)

Top seed:  Duke
While Duke might have preferred to stay out East like its rival North Carolina got to do as a 2-seed, the road to the Final Four is relatively simple.  Neither Tennessee nor Michigan is a tough challenge in the third round.  What the Blue Devils would really like to do is avoid Texas.  They are just 57 percent likely to beat the 4th-seeded Long Horns compared to over 69 percent against 5th-seeded Arizona.  The possibility of a virtual road game versus SDSU in Anaheim looms in the regional final, but Duke is still 30.7 percent likely to reach Houston.

Team to avoid:  Arizona
The Pac-10 regular season champions enjoyed a big bounce back year led by Derrick Williams and Coach Sean Miller.  Their stay in the tournament may not last very long however as the Wild Cats are projected to have just a 36 percent chance of beating Texas to advance to the Sweet 16.  If they were to win that game, they would be even bigger underdogs against Duke.

Underseeded:  Temple
The Owls land here by virtue of an overwhelmingly easy first round opponent in Penn State.  While Washington is the strongest 7-seed, Temple has the weakest opponent and is thus most likely to win its first game (66.5 percent).  Penn State actually has a worse projected outlook than both 13-seed Oakland and 14-seed Bucknell.  That combined with a relatively strong showing for the Owls against 2-seed SDSU (44 percent) gives Temple a better chance of winning the regional than both Arizona and Cincinnati.

Mighty mid-major:  Temple
For all of the reasons stated above.

 

EAST REGION (Newark)

Top seed:  Ohio State
The Buckeyes are the number one overall seed in the tournament, but the committee did them no favors with a stacked bracket awaiting them.  They are grouped with the best 4-seed in Kentucky and the best 7-seed in Washington as well as national powers North Carolina and Syracuse.  Despite the strong competition, Ohio State is still the clear favorite in the East and has played some of the most consistent basketball of any team in the country.  It has a 28.42 percent chance of advancing to Houston, third best among the top seeds.

Underseeded:  Washington
The Huskies played erratic basketball this season finishing third in the Pac-10, but have the talent level of a top 4-seed.  That bears out in the simulations as they have an 8.43 percent chance of winning the region which is better than all but the top 16 overall seeds.  If Washington can get by North Carolina in the third round, it would be favored against both 3-seed Syracuse and 6-seed Xavier.

Team to avoid:  West Virginia
The Mountaineers have the most losses of any 5-seed in the tournament (11) and finished 7th in the Big East.  While they are still a strong team, the tough bracket makes it unlikely for them to advance deep into the tournament.  They are just the eighth most likely team to win the East (3.86 percent) behind even 8-seed George Mason

Mighty mid-major:  George Mason
While the Patriots didn’t win the Colonial tournament, they did win the regular season title by a full two games and had won 16 straight games before losing to VCU.  They are 61 percent favorites to win in the second round against Villanova.

This week, AccuScore Expert Picks went 2-1 with a net of +197 units on 300 units of investment, a Return on Investment of 66%. AccuScore Soccer has now provided positive returns in 3 of the last 4 weeks. AccuScore Soccer started the Expert Hot Trends Picks series to demonstrate how to use our Hot Trends (updated weekly) to make smarter picks.
Click Here for this week's Soccer Hot Trends.

AccuScore instructs soccer investors on how to use our reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($9.95/month,
Try it for Free for a limited time) as a reference tool to become smarter investors, and we have been providing Expert Hot Trends picks as a long-term detailed example on how to use these Hot Trends with positive results.

Soccer Advisor membership includes Live Betting Odds, individual goal scoring probabilities, and overall betting value analysis for EVERY match in the Champions League, English Premier League, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, and the Spanish Primera Liga. This product is only available at this rate for a limited time, so try it free before we re-value this incredibly helpful betting tool.

Now, Here is this week's updated Expert Hot Trends Picks Summary:

Summary of Expert Hot Picks: As of March 14, 2011
Picks		Investment	Return on Investment	%ROI
November 21, 2010		700	-37	-5%
November 30, 2010		1200	+603	+50%
December 5, 2010		900	+389	+43%
December 11, 2010	750		-15	-2%
December 17, 2010	500		+102	+20%
December 23, 2010	200		-200	-100%
Jan 5-Jan 7, 2011	200		-200	-100%
January 9, 2011	300		+274	+91%
January 14, 2011	600		+262	+44%
January 21, 2011	700		-127	-18%
January 28, 2011	700		+20	+3%
February 4, 2011	700		-498	-71%
February 11, 2011	350		-162	-46%
February 18, 2011	300		+68	+23%
February 23, 2011	600		+120	+20%
March 4, 2011	300		-40	-13%
March 9, 2011	300		+197	+66%
Total	9,300		+756	+8.1%

This week, AccuScore Soccer's Hot Trends focused on the hottest trends in the English Premier League. After the EPL took last week off, AccuScore decided that we would double the dosage and provide our EPL investors with more of the most profitable trends from England's top flight. As always, we also included some of the better performing trends from Spain, Germany and Italy to provide investors a starting point when making their picks.

Without any further delay, here are this week's Soccer Hot Trends...

Top 18 Hot Trends (Updated March 14, 2011)
League		Hot Trend	Trend Record	Trend Value
EPL		Birmingham Value on the Road	8-11	+665
EPL		Birmingham Value on Draw	8-7	+1,445
EPL		Birmingham Picking Under	5-0	+455
EPL	Everton Value on Draws		10-3	+610
EPL	Everton Value on Draws		6-4	+1,540
EPL	Sunderland Value on Draw		11-9	+1,266
EPL	West Bromwich Value on Road		8-2	+528
EPL	Wigan Athletic Side Value - All		19-23	+2,739
La Liga	Atletico Madrid Value on Losing		10-12	+857
Bundes	Nurnberg Value on Winning		9-6	+1758
Bundes	Nurnberg Totals at Home		9-1	+719
Bundes	Bayern Munich Side Total - All		8-3	+428
Bundes	Borussia Dortmund Value on Winning		16-4	+1,530
Serie A	Brescia Value on Draw		6-7	+1,382
Serie A	Cagliari Totals at Home		4-1	+264
Serie A	Lecce Totals on the Road		8-2	+528
Serie A	Napoli Value on Winning		8-7	+491
Serie A	Udinese Value on Winning		11-6	+1,246
	Combined Record for these Trends		164-108	+18,451

AccuScore uses these Hot Trends to make its Expert Picks. Click Here to see an updated Summary of Expert Hot Trends Picks.

For those who do not understand what value situation means, there are 2 types of Value situations:

1. Totals (Overs/Unders): AccuScore identifies a value situation as the Total that results from over 50% of the 10,000 simulations that AccuScore performs for every match.
For Example: In last week’s AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur Champions League match, the Over/Under was 2.5 goals. 52.0% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations ended with the teams combining for Under 2.5 goals. As such, AccuScore found value in picking the Under 2.5 goals. The match ended 0-0.

2.Side Value: AccuScore converts public bookies' odds for every possible result into a percentage out of 100% (identified as “Line%” in each Game Forecast). Then, AccuScore performs its simulations independently of the bookies’ probabilities to arrive at its own AccuScore probabilities for each outcome (ACC%). In every match forecast, AccuScore presents the “Line %” to be compared with the “ACC%” in the “Live Betting Predictions Box.” If the ACC% is higher than the Line% for any of the possible results, AccuScore views that result to have value (in some cases more than 1 result).
For Example:Let’s review the same Champions League match between AC Milan and Tottenham Hotspur:
(Members: Click Here to view Game Forecast)
Line%: AC Milan to win – 31.5%; Tottenham to win – 40.7%, and Draw 27.8%.
ACC%: AC Milan to win – 36.0%; Tottenham to win – 36.0%, and Draw 28.0%.

According to the ACC% and Line% above, AccuScore found value in picking AC Milan to win and picking the draw. The teams drew 0-0, so 100 units placed on both the Draw and AC Milan to win would have yielded a net profit of +152 units (+252 in profit for the Draw - 100 in losses for AC Milan Winning).

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($9.95/month, Try it for Free) as a reference tool to become smarter investors.

A Quick Look at the Best Matches in European this Weekend

**Check out Free previews of all matches at Facebook.com/AccuScore **

Saturday, 12th of March, 2011

FA Cup Arsenal at Manchester United (FA Cup)
Reasons to Watch: Although AccuScore does not cover the FA Cup, this match is definitely worth watching. Arsenal and Manchester United are the top 2 teams in the English Premier League at the moment, and this match may well set the tone for who will win the league. After Arsenal crashed out of the UEFA Champions League this week, the Gunners will be desperate to end their trophy drought with a positive result. Cesc Fabregas, Rio Ferdinand, Nani, and Wojciech Szczesny are some of the players who will not be fit enough to compete.

German Bundesliga Hamburg SV at Bayern Munich
Reasons to Watch: Both Bayern Munich and Hamburg have had disappointing seasons, but these two big-time German clubs are playing for pride as much as they are playing for points. Bayern’s performance in this match will be dissected ad nauseam because of their upcoming match with Inter Milan next week. Arjen Robben is the in-form player to watch in this match.

Sunday, 13th of March, 2011

Italian Serie A Lazio at AS Roma
Reasons to Watch: This is the heated Rome derby. The history, hatred, and passion of the fans will fuel the intensity of this match regardless of the current form of either side. Lazio are only 10 points off the pace and currently sit in 4th place, while Roma are 5 points back of their local rivals in 6th place. Roma crashed out of the Champions League, but a win for Roma on the weekend will be sweet nonetheless.

Spanish Primera Liga Barcelona at Sevilla
Reasons to Watch: Sevilla have had a disappointing season, to say the least. After being knocked out of the Champions League, Europa League, and the Copa Del Rey, the team from Seville finds itself 12 points back of a Champions League berth and 2 points out of a Europa League spot. A visit from Barcelona does not provide a boost for the squad, but Sevilla vs Barcelona has been an entertaining fixture in recent years, more so in past seasons. The meeting at the Camp Nou this season was a 5-0 slaughter, so Sevilla will be playing for pride in front of their home fans.

Click Here for this week's Soccer Hot Trends

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($9.95/month, Try it for Free) as a reference tool to become smarter investors. Membership includes simulation trends, live betting odds, and individual goal scoring probabilities for ALL UEFA Champions League, Italian Serie A, English Premier League, German Bundesliga, and Spanish Primera Liga matches.

Expert Hot Trend Picks

1. Atletico Madrid at Almeria:
Atletico Madrid to win at +118

2. Athletic Bilbao at Getafe :
Split Bet: 50 units on Athletic Bilbao to Win at +201 & 50 units on Draw at +249

3. Udinese at Cagliari :
Udinese to win at +173

Click Here this weekend’s Soccer Programme (View’s Guide).

Click Here to view the Hot Trends these picks were based on