AccuScore Soccer Hot Trends - April 20, 2011

  • Wednesday, April 20, 2011 4:59 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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This week’s Hot trends may not seem as impressive as previous weeks' at first glace, but these trends have been some of the best performers in the last 2 months. The Trend Value listed below refers to the performance of these trends for the entire season, but these trends represent the best performers over the past 2 and a half months that have still maintained a positive overall value. That is to say, all of these trends have returned profits over the past 2 and a half months, most of which are at a high value. Without further delay, this week’s Hot Trends:

19 Hot Trends for Investors to take Note of (Updated April 20, 2011)
League Hot Trend

Trend Record

Trend Value
EPL Birmingham Picking Under 5-0 +455
EPL Blackburn Rovers Totals 12-6 +492
EPL Everton Picking Under 6-2 +346
EPL West Brom Totals on the Road 9-2 +619
La Liga Atletico Madrid Totals at Home 8-1 +628
La Liga Hercules Value on Losing 8-8 +387
La Liga Real Zaragoza Totals at Home 10-2 +710
La Liga Valencia Side Value on Road 10-10 +586
Bundes Bayern Munich Totals at Home 5-1 +355
Bundes Borussia Dortmund Value on Winning 16-5 +1,430
Bundes Borussia Monchegladbach Totals at Home 5-1 +355
Bundes Nurnberg Value on Winning 9-8 +1,558
Bundes Schalke 04 Picking Under 4-1 +264
Serie A VfL Wolfsburg Totals at Home 7-5 +137
Serie A Cagliari Totals at Home 4-1 +264
Serie A Cesena Totals 8-5 +228
Serie A Chievo Value on Draw 7-10 +1,050
Serie A Sampdoria Value on Losing 11-15 +964
Serie A Udinese Value on Winning 13-7 +1,661
Combined Record/Value 157-90 +12,489

For those who do not understand what value situation means, there are 2 types of Value situations:

1. Totals (Overs/Unders): AccuScore identifies a value situation as the Total that results from over 50% of the 10,000 simulations that AccuScore performs for every match.

For Example (see image below): In last month’s AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur Champions League match, the Over/Under was 2.5 goals. 52.0% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations ended with the teams combining for Under 2.5 goals. As such, AccuScore found value in picking the Under 2.5 goals. The match ended 0-0.


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2.Side Value: AccuScore converts public bookies' odds for every possible result into a percentage out of 100% (identified as “Line%” in each Game Forecast). Then, AccuScore performs its simulations independently of the bookies’ probabilities to arrive at its own AccuScore probabilities for each outcome (ACC%). In every match forecast, AccuScore presents the “Line %” to be compared with the “ACC%” in the “Live Betting Predictions Box.” If the ACC% is higher than the Line% for any of the possible results, AccuScore views that result to have value (in some cases more than 1 result).

For Example (see image below): Let’s review the 1st leg of the Champions League match between Manchester United and Chelsea:
Line%: Manchester United to win – 25.5%; Chelsea to win – 44.8%, and Draw 29.7%
ACC%: Manchester United to win – 36.4%; Chelsea to win – 34.2%, and Draw 29.4%.

According to the ACC% and Line% below, AccuScore found value in picking Manchester United to win because the ACC% was greater than the line% for Manchester United to win but not for Chelsea to win or the draw. Manchester United won 1-0, so 100 units placed on Manchester United would have yielded a profit of +284 units according to the image below.


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AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($29.95/month, Try it for Free) as a reference tool to become smarter investors.

Click here for this week’s Updated Expert Trend Pick Review

Recap: AccuScore Soccer Expert Picks April 18, 2011

  • Wednesday, April 20, 2011 4:57 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Continuing on our end of the season attack, AccuScore built on last week’s successes by going 2 for 3 and returning 31% in profit this weekend.

In AccuScore’s first pick, AccuScore projected clear value in Valencia winning at Almeria, and Valencia managed a clear 3-0 victory. Then, AccuScore used trend analysis to determine that Under 2.5 goals was the correct play in the Blackburn at Everton contest, and that match ended 2-0 in Everton’s favor. The only misstep on the weekend came from AccuScore’s decision to favor Barcelona over Real Madrid, however, with Barcelona seeing +158 (2.580) odds, that pick definitely had value. Ultimately, the net result was a profit of 94 units on 300 units of investment, or 31% ROI.

With the AccuScore Super Computer’s calculations tuning up with every match, we anticipate the Super Computer will continue finishing strong from now until the end of the season.

If you’re not a member, this is the best time to get in at the Spring Special of $29.95/month, AccuScore Soccer Advisor is a must-have for any enthusiast: Try it for Free for 3 days

Recap: Expert Picks - As of April 18, 2011
Picks Investment

Return on Investment

%ROI
April 8, 2011 500 +78 +16%
April 11, 2011 100 +91 +91%
April 15, 2011 300 +94 +31%
Total 900 +263 +29%

Recap: Expert Picks April 14, 2011

  • Thursday, April 14, 2011 4:51 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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After making 10,000 units worth of Expert picks and still keeping above the positive side of the beak-even line this season, AccuScore launched a new Expert Pick series last week. This series is designed to focus on our performance during the last month and a half of the season—“winning time.” AccuScore’s Super Computer is now basing calculations on current season statistics to a greater degree than earlier in the season. Consequently, AccuScore anticipates the Super Computer will finish strong, as is the trend with our other sports.

If you’re not a member, this is the best time to get in at the Spring Special of $29.95/month, AccuScore Soccer Advisor is a must-have for any enthusiast: Try it for Free for 3 days

AccuScore made picks in 5 matches last week, and we returned profits in 3 of those 5 matches, leading to a Return on Investment of 28%. See details below:

Recap: Expert Picks - As of April 14, 2011
Picks Investment

Return on Investment

%ROI
April 8, 2011 500 +78 +16%
April 11, 2011 100 +91 +91%
       
Total 600 +169 +28%

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product as a reference tool which provides odds, individual goal scoring probabilities, and much more ($29.95/month, Click here for a FREE 3-day trial).

Click here for this week’s Soccer Hot Trends

AccuScore Soccer Hot Trends - April 14, 2011

  • Thursday, April 14, 2011 2:55 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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AccuScore Soccer continues to provide select Hot Trends for members to take note of. This week, we shared 17 Hot Trends that have not only been profitable for the season, but they have also been profitable over the past 2 months and the last 2 weeks. For a deeper understanding of what “Side Value” and “Totals” mean, please read our examples below this week’s trends.

Now, without further adieu, here are this week’s Hot Trends:

17 Hot Trends for Investors to take Note of (Updated April 14, 2011)
League Hot Trend

Trend Record

Trend Value
EPL Birmingham Picking Under 5-0 +455
EPL Birmingham Value on Draw 9-8 +1,586
EPL Everton Totals at Home 8-5 +228
EPL Liverpool Totals on Road 8-2 +528
EPL Sunderland Side Value at Home 12-11 +1,310
La Liga Atletico Madrid Totals at Home 8-1 +628
La Liga Barcelona Value on Winning 9-0 +213
La Liga Real Zaragoza Totals at Home 10-2 +710
Bundes Borussia Monchengladbach Totals at Home 5-1 +355
Bundes Hannover 96 Totals at Home 8-2 +528
Bundes Hannover 96 Value on Winning 7-5 +1,784
Bundes Nurnberg Totals at Home 10-2 +710
Bundes Nurnberg Value on Winning 9-8 +1,558
Serie A Bari Side Value - All 20-22 +1,011
Serie A Catania Totals at Home 3-0 +273
Serie A Napoli Value on Winning 9-7 +549
Serie A Udinese Side Value at Home 12-9 +1319
       
       
  Combined Record/Value 152-85 +13,745

For those who do not understand what value situation means, there are 2 types of Value situations:

1. Totals (Overs/Unders): AccuScore identifies a value situation as the Total that results from over 50% of the 10,000 simulations that AccuScore performs for every match.

For Example (see image below): In last month’s AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur Champions League match, the Over/Under was 2.5 goals. 52.0% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations ended with the teams combining for Under 2.5 goals. As such, AccuScore found value in picking the Under 2.5 goals. The match ended 0-0.


alt

2.Side Value: AccuScore converts public bookies' odds for every possible result into a percentage out of 100% (identified as “Line%” in each Game Forecast). Then, AccuScore performs its simulations independently of the bookies’ probabilities to arrive at its own AccuScore probabilities for each outcome (ACC%). In every match forecast, AccuScore presents the “Line %” to be compared with the “ACC%” in the “Live Betting Predictions Box.” If the ACC% is higher than the Line% for any of the possible results, AccuScore views that result to have value (in some cases more than 1 result).

For Example (see image below): Let’s review the 1st leg of the Champions League match between Manchester United and Chelsea:
Line%: Manchester United to win – 25.5%; Chelsea to win – 44.8%, and Draw 29.7%
ACC%: Manchester United to win – 36.4%; Chelsea to win – 34.2%, and Draw 29.4%.

According to the ACC% and Line% below, AccuScore found value in picking Manchester United to win because the ACC% was greater than the line% for Manchester United to win but not for Chelsea to win or the draw. Manchester United won 1-0, so 100 units placed on Manchester United would have yielded a profit of +284 units according to the image below.


alt

AccuScore advises Soccer investors to use our extremely reasonable priced Soccer Advisor product ($29.95/month, Try it for Free) as a reference tool to become smarter investors.

Cardinals Should Survive Matt Holliday's Absence

  • Monday, April 4, 2011 11:59 AM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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The Cardinals had already suffered an injury to a superstar losing Adam Wainwright before the season. Now leftfielder Matt Holliday is out after surgery Friday for an emergency appendectomy.

There is reason for hope however for St. Louis. Holliday could potentially be out as little as two weeks. The team did not immediately put him on the disabled list just in case he could return earlier. In the mean time, Jon Jay and Allen Craig should adequately fill in over the next two weeks.

Even if Holliday is out for a full month, it’s not the end of the world for the Cards. Below is the impact of this injury. Losing Holliday for a sixth of the season cost them only 0.8 wins and -1.7 percent at the division. If he can return earlier, those numbers would be even smaller.

  Projected  W-L DIVISION PLAYOFFS
w/Holliday 86.3 – 75.7 30% 37.8%
w/o Holliday 85.5 – 76.5 28.3% 35.5%
Impact -0.8 W -1.7% -2.3%

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