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EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland has home-court advantage and that is a big factor as to why it has the best chance of winning the Eastern Conference and the NBA Championship.  AccuScore gives Cleveland a 52% of beating Orlando in the Conference Finals, but if Orlando had home-court advantage, it would have had a 56% chance of beating the Cavs.  That means finishing with the best record was worth 8% in win probability to Cleveland.

The biggest thing to note is that the top three seeds are massive favorites with each being at least 92 percent to win in the opening round.  Boston is also a pretty sizable favorite winning the series over Miami nearly 2 out of 3 times. Moving on to the 2nd round, it becomes readily apparent that the class of the East is again Orlando and Cleveland. Atlanta has had a nice season but has just a 27 percent chance of reaching the Conference Finals because the Hawks would more than likely have to go through the Magic.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
The West probabilities are much more even across the board because of the quality of every team in the field.  All eight seeds won at least 50 games with the Lakers finishing just 7 games ahead of Oklahoma City.  By contrast, Cleveland finished 20 games ahead of 8th seeded Chicago.  The late-season surge by Phoenix was key because now it is the second overall favorite in the West behind L.A. The Lakers, despite playing poorly down the stretch, are still the clear favorites at nearly 37 percent to win the conference.

AccuScore is predicting a first-round upset with the Spurs getting the slight 50.8% chance of beating the Mavericks in the first round.  Interestingly, the Mavs still have a better shot than San Antonio of winning the West and the title despite being slight first-round underdogs. This is because AccuScore believes Dallas matches up better against the rest of the top teams in the conference than San Antonio. The Spurs, though, are favored in this one particular match-up.

WEST IS BEST, BUT CHAMPIONSHIP LIKELY GOES EAST
AccuScore simulated each team playing every other team home and away (870 total combinations).  The eight Eastern Conference playoff teams won 63.9% of simulations.  The eight Western Conference playoff teams won 73% of simulations.  The Western Conference playoff teams are clearly better collectively based on simulation winning percentage.

The West may be the stronger conference, but there is a 66% chance that the NBA champion comes out of the East because there is such a high chance that Cleveland or Orlando reaches the Finals and both teams will have home-court advantage. This gives both Cleveland and Orlando a solid advantage over any potential opponent in the Finals including the Lakers.

One other thing to note is the fact that Orlando is actually a bigger favorite than Cleveland against everyone except Denver and Oklahoma City. The Magic appear to be underrated heading into the postseason.

HOTTEST TRENDS IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS
AccuScore racked up an impressive 1193-1071, 52.7% +1490 on all point spread and totals picks this season.  Few people bet on every single game, so we do track key trends and these are some you should be aware of heading into the playoffs.  Our NBA Advisor product updates these trends and makes pick recommendations using these trends.  Make sure to sign up now.

SEASON LONG TRENDS
POINT SPREADS
Simulation and Betting line is < 2 Pts Different:   272-202, 57.4% +4980
Home Team is Favored:  422-344, 55.1% +4360
Eastern Conference Games:  188-158, 54.3% +1420
Top Team Trends

TOTALS
Simulation and Betting line is 4.5 to 6 Pts Different:  171-143, 54.5% +1370
Total Betting Line is 205.5 or More:  207-162, 56.1% +2880
Southeast Division Game Totals:  25-13, 65.8% +1070
Western Conference Game Totals:  202-174, 53.7% +1060