Andrew Bogut Injury Impact
- Monday, April 5, 2010 1:54 AM
- Written By: AccuScore
Andrew Bogut suffered a gruesome fall Saturday night resulting in a sprained wrist, broken hand, and dislocated elbow. The center had been having an All-Star caliber, and was helping lead the Bucks to a surprisingly successful season.
With only six games remaining in the regular season, the impact of the loss of Bogut is minimal. Milwaukee is currently 6th in the East, ½ game behind the Heat. With or without their center, the Bucks were projected to finish in that spot.
MILWAUKEE |
W |
L |
% |
STANDINGS |
Current Record |
42 |
34 |
55.3% |
6TH |
Before Injury |
45.1 |
36.9 |
55.0% |
6TH |
After Injury |
44.5 |
37.5 |
54.3% |
6TH |
Impact |
-0.6 |
0.6 |
-0.7% |
-- |
Per Game Impact |
-10.0% |
Per game however, the impact of the loss of Bogut is readily apparent. Bogut was averaging 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, and was one of the main reasons for Milwaukee’s terrific defense (6th in defensive efficiency) by anchoring the middle. The Bucks are 10% less likely to win a night without Bogut virtually ending any hopes for a first round upset.
Using the Playoff Simulator, AccuScore has the injury costing the Bucks any real chance of making noise in the playoffs. Their chances of a first round win went from a reasonable 21.2% to just 10.1% in a forecast match-up against Atlanta.
POST SEASON |
w/ Bogut |
w/o Bogut |
IMPACT |
Win Round 1 |
21.2% |
10.1% |
-11.1% |
Win Round 2 |
3.5% |
0.5% |
-3.0% |
Win Eastern Conf |
0.3% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
Win Championship |
0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
Milwaukee had beaten Atlanta two weeks ago at home and went to overtime in a road loss at the end of February. NBA fans have been robbed of a potentially exciting first round series because of this unfortunate injury.
