Anquan Boldin's Value to the Raves
- Monday, March 8, 2010 1:02 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
The Ravens made the AFC Championship Game in 2008 and won one playoff game in 2009 without a true #1 Wide Receiver. WR Derrick Mason is a solid WR, but at 36 years old, the 5’10” Mason is not in Boldin’s class. While Mason deserves credit for having 73 catches, 1028 yards and 7 TDs in 2009, one could argue that this shows just how good Ray Rice and Joe Flacco can be. They are good enough to help Mason nearly make the Pro Bowl despite his obvious limitations.
To evaluate Anquan Boldin’s value we went back to the 2009 Season and “re-simulated” the entire season. The Ravens were 9-7 in 2009, but in our re-simulation they averaged 9.9 wins, made the playoffs nearly 70% of the time and won the AFC North a shade over 40% of the time. When we added Anquan Boldin to the team and assumed Mason (a free agent) would become the #2, and the newly acquired Donte’ Stallworth #3 WRs we found that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs increased to over 76%.
RAVENS REPLAY 2009 |
WINS |
LOSS |
% |
DIV |
PLAYOFF |
PPG |
With Boldin |
10.4 |
5.6 |
65.0% |
46.8% |
76.1% |
25.2 |
Without Boldin |
9.9 |
6.1 |
61.9% |
40.3% |
69.8% |
23.8 |
IMPACT |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
3.1% |
6.5% |
6.3% |
1.4 |
If Boldin stays healthy he improves the Ravens chances of making the playoffs by over +6 percentage points. On a per game basis he helps the Ravens average 1.4 more points and provides a +3.1 percentage point impact per game. Just how valuable is +3.1%? It translates to around a +2 point difference in average margin of victory. It takes the Ravens from being a slight underdog to teams like the Colts at home, to being a slight favorite vs the Colts at home. In other words, it could be exactly what the team needs to get over the hump in the AFC and make it to the 2011 Super Bowl.
