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Nicklas Bendtner starts for Arsenal in the return leg for Barcelona because Robin Van Persie is unable to recover from an injury. Cesc Fabregas is also deemed unfit. Alex song joins both on the side lines. Bendtner scores first at the Camp Nou, and Arsenal think they are on their way. Moments later, Lionel Messi scores. Then, he scores again. Then, he scores again. After a first half hat trick, he scores one final goal moments from full time as an additional gift for all the fans in attendance. A weakened Arsenal side is slaughtered in front of adoring fans at the Camp Nou despite Barcelona’s (and Spain’s) first choice center backs, Carles Puyol and Gerrard Pique, missing the contest. Is this a prediction for Tuesday’s match? No. This is what happened in last season’s Champions League quarter finals.

Last week, Gunners fans had a feeling of déjà vu when Alex Song and Robin Van Persie were ruled out of Tuesday’s return leg, with Cesc Fabregas listed as questionable. With Theo Walcott also ruled out with an ankle injury, the feeling of déjà vu quickly morphed into a damned good reason to grab hold a bottle of whiskey and prepare for another episode of the Lionel Messi show. Since then, however, Fabregas’ status was upgraded to probable, and Robin Van Persie was a shock addition to Arsenal’s travelling squad to Barcelona.

Alex Song, Gerrard Pique, and Carles Puyol will miss the second leg of this matchup for the 2nd year in a row. Nicklas Bendtner will, again, expect to start if Robin Van Persie is unable to complete his miraculous recovery. Despite the superstars, history, drama, and quality of Tuesday’s “Arselona” matchup, the focus leading up to this contest is on the injury reports and lineup changes.

Before we continue, let us reflect on the magic that was Lionel Messi against Arsenal at the Camp Nou last season. Nicklas Bendtner had put away a goal in the 18th minute, and a half-strength (if that) Arsenal were thinking they could do the impossible. Then, Lionel Messi reminded everyone in the world why he was the best. You see, Barcelona was the best club in the world, and Lionel Messi was the best player in the world. You don’t see? Well, then, have a look: Messi v Arsenal (yes, that is Andy Grey doing commentary).

Now, back to Arselona 2011…

In the 1st leg at the Emirates, Barcelona led 1-0 after David Villa scored, and the Catalonians looked like the better team in the first half. Both teams had good chances, but Lionel Messi missed a couple of chances that he routinely finishes, the type of chances that separate him from the mere mortals that play football. In the second half, Arsenal played with a renewed urgency, and despite being out-possessed 61%-39% in both halves, Arsenal dominated the final 20 minutes. Not coincidentally, these final 20 minutes followed David Villa’s substitution out of the contest and Andrey Arshavin’s introduction into the contest.

In the first leg, the turning point was in the 68th minute. At that point, Pep Guardiola, Barcelona’s manager, got his substitution wrong. He introduced Seydou Keita, a midfielder, for David Villa, a striker. With his substitution, Pep sent out the message that he was content to sit on his 1-0 lead. Simultaneously, Arsene Wenger, Arsenal’s manager, got his changes spot on. In a surprise move, Wenger put in Andrey Arshavin (attacking midfielder/winger) for Alex Song (defensive midfielder). Most experts and fans (probably Pep, too) expected the Russian attacker to come in for Theo Walcott in a straight swap. Arsenal welcomed the message from the bench to attack, and an extra attacker on the pitch allowed Arsenal to control the match and regularly create chances in the final 20 minutes.

In those final 20 minutes, Arsenal scored 2 goals and could have put away more. 19 year-old Jack Wilshire played as the main ball winning defensive minded midfielder effectively, and Arsenal ran wild on the mighty Barcelona. Still, when the final whistle blew, the match ended 2-1, and Barcelona now had the manageable task of returning home and advancing with a routine 1-0 victory at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona’s Camp Nou is the largest football stadium Europe with a capacity of 99,354. Barcelona have only lost 1 match at home this season in all competitions, and that loss came in their first home game of the Spanish season. Incidentally, that was Barcelona’s only loss of this season in 27 La Liga contests. Barcelona may still be the best team in La Liga, but the recent form of the Spanish Champions has been far from the dominance most expect from “the best team in the world” (per Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal captain).

Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 6 matches by more than 1 goal. During this 6 match stretch, Lionel Messi has only (yes, only) scored 3 goals. In his 5 appearances prior to this stretch, Lionel Messi tallied 9 goals. During the last month, Barcelona and Lionel Messi have not been the domineering and flashy force that all footballers have come to fear. Last weekend, for example, Barcelona hosted Real Zaragoza at the Camp Nou. Zaragoza were only 1 point above the drop zone and were dominated by Barcelona from start to finish. However, Barcelona were frustratingly held to only 1 goal for the 4th time in their last 6 matches. Still, a 1-0 victory on Tuesday would send Barcelona through to the quarter finals on away goals.

Although 1-0 would send Barcelona through, can the Blaugrana keep Arsenal off the scores sheet without their two best defenders? With Gerard Pique suspended and Carles Puyol injured, Barcelona may opt to place Sergio Busquets in the center of the defense (Guardiola employed this tactic against Valencia 2 weeks ago). However, if Busquets moves to the center of the defense, would Pep really trust Javier Mascherano to play in the middle of the park in such an important fixture? No, Seydou Keita would likely start over Mascherano in this scenario.

Barcelona’s other option in the defense, and the far better option, is to place Eric Abidal and Maxwell as center-halves with Dani Alves and Adriano as the full backs. Adriano had his best match of the season against Valencia 2 weeks ago and assisted on Barcelona’s only goal in that match. The former Sevilla man was rested along with Sergio Busquets on the weekend. Against Zaragoza, Eric Abidal, Andres Iniesta, and David Villa appeared as substitutes, and all 3 and Busquets are sure starters on Tuesday.

Arsenal’s selection quandary is of the attacking nature in contrast to Barcelona’s defensive uncertainties. With Walcott injured, Andrey Arshavin will feature from the start, but Robin Van Persie’s status provides more questions than answers. If Van Persie is deemed fit enough to start, he will start—without a doubt. If Van Persie is ruled out, Nicklas Bendtner has the edge on Moroccan striker Marouane Chamakh despite the former Bordeaux striker having extensive Champions League experience. Last season, Chamakh scored 5 goals in 9 Champions League starts with Bordeaux, who made it to the quarter finals. Currently, Bendtner has the edge because Chamakh has only 1 goal in his last 16 appearances across all competitions, while Bendtner scored a hat trick in the FA Cup last week.

Arsenal will hope Robin Van Persie and Cesc Fabregas have fully recovered, and the Gunners can take advantage of Barcelona’s makeshift defense. But, Barcelona know that they can overcome the loss of their two best defenders with a little Messi magic; after all, Messi did it last year. If the last 3 matches between these 2 teams have taught us anything, it is to expect greatness and goals. These teams have scored 12 goals in their last 3 meeting. As such, when Arselona happens, believe the hype.

Who’s Going to Win & Who’s Going to Score…
(Updated until final Starters are announced)

AccuScore incorporated an incredible amount of statistical data to simulate this match one pass at a time and repeat the process 10,000 times to arrive at a variety of probabilities. First, AccuScore calculated that the most likely goal scorer in this contest was, not surprisingly, Lionel Messi. Messi scored in 58% of simulations and averaged nearly 5 shots with between 2 and 3 shots on goal. Seeing as Messi has 40 goals and 17 assists in 33 appearances with Barcelona this season, nothing wrong with that prediction. Messi… best of all time, maybe; best in the world right now, definitely.

AccuScore calculated David Villa and Pedro to be the next most likely goal scorers in the match with both Barcelona forwards scoring in around 40% of simulations and averaging a combined 5 shots with 3 on goal. Robin Van Persie was the most likely Gunner to score, but the Dutch striker scored in only 27% of simulations, less than all 3 of Barcelona’s forwards. Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasir both scored in 14% of simulations to round out the top 6 most likely scorers.

AccuScore’s average score was Barcelona 2-1 Arsenal. This score line would mean extra time and a shootout, and wouldn’t that be tragic? Of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations, Barcelona won 69%, Arsenal won 11%, and the teams drew 20%. Surprisingly, these calculations still gave Arsenal and the draw a higher probability than the current odds published by bookies.

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Quote-worthy Notes

Pep Guardiola spent 3 days in a hospital last week undergoing treakment on a herniated disc but was back on the bench against Zaragoza last weekend…Lionel Messi is Barça's all-time leading scorer in the Champions League with 31 goals in 51 games…Barcelona beat Arsenal 2-1 in the 2006 Champions League final in Paris… Andrés Iniesta is within a yellow card of a ban…Barcelona completed 629 of 773 passes (81%) during the 1st leg in London.

This will be the 201st match for the Gunners in UEFA competitions, and Arsenal have won 99 of their UEFA contests…Arsenal have scored 197 UEFA Champions League goals and conceded 197 in UEFA competition…Arsenal have scored 20 goals, the highest total of any team entering the second legs this season...Arsenal completed 299 of 423 passes furing the 1st leg (71%), less than half as many passes as Barcelona.

Note-worthy Quotes

“Messi can score 100 goals in the league if he wants; that's OK, it's not our problem…but I don't want him to do what he did last year, because then he was unbelievable…He scored four fantastic goals, and showed us why he is the best player in the world.” Samir Nasri, Arsenal Midfielder

"It will be the same Arsenal as ever - an attacking team. That's the way they play and I don't think they know any other way.” Dani Alves, Barcelona Right Back

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