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For the next 3 weeks, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United take turns playing each other to decide the top club in England entering 2011. With Round 1 of El Clasico settling the matter of the best team in Spain in favor of Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund dominating Germany and sitting 10 points clear in the Bundesliga, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic driving AC Milan to the top of the Italian Serie A, the next 3 weeks of the EPL provide the top of the table excitement the rest of the top European leagues simply cannot offer at this point in the season. December is the month Premier League fans have been patiently waiting for since the start of the season: Let the games begin!

Chelsea at Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, December 12, 2010

Chelsea only lead Tottenham by 4 points and face the toughest month of the top 3. Chelsea travel to 5th place Tottenham Hotspur this weekend, host 2nd place Manchester United next weekend, and finish off 2010 with a trip to the Emirates to face a young and dangerous 1st place Arsenal. With Chelsea’s recent dismal form, Chelsea could fall out of the top 5 and parallel the dip of Italian Champions Inter Milan by the time 2011 calendars hit the wall.

To those who have not been following the Premier League too keenly in recent years, Tottenham are no longer the side that was routinely thrashed by Chelsea in the early part of the decade. Entering Sunday, Tottenham boasts 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches against the Blues. Earlier this week, both these teams qualified for the Champions League round of 16 and won their respective groups, so the Champions League draw will considers these teams as 2 of the best 8 sides in Europe.

With Gareth Bale’s complete demolition of Internazionale, Tottenham have been best English football story in Europe. Sure, Chelsea's lack of form, England’s embarrassment at the hands of FIFA, and United’s Rooney drama used up all the ink in Newspaper factories across Britain, but Tottenham’s dismantling of Internazionale’s treble winning defense was the best football story English football provided Europe since the start of the season.

Against Inter Milan, Gareth Bale's pace and form were unparalleled, and the 21 year-old Welshman’s record of 3 goals and 2 assists in 135 minutes against Inter Milan’s treble winning back 4 quickly made him the most coveted commodity in Europe.

Let’s consider what Gareth Bale did to the previously invincible Maicon over 180 minutes. Maicon was generally regarded as the best right back in the world (or close to it) before Bale’s 3 goal second half at the San Siro. After another 90 minutes at White Hart Lane, Maicon was written off as too old, too slow, and finished in every newspaper from London to Milan. Maicon’s drastic decline in world football was balanced with the astronomic ascendance of Gareth Bale, and the Welshman did everything short of deliver Maicon’s retirement speech.

Chelsea have provided few highlights recently. The defending English champions have only won 1 of their last 6 league matches, and Chelsea’s prolific goal scoring frontline has only put together 1 multi-goal match in their last 8 contests. After losing 1-0 at Marseille on Wedensday in the Champions League, manager Carlo Ancelotti shared his thoughts on the fragile mental state of his defeated side. “I think we lost confidence,” he said. “Now, we are a little bit afraid to play football.”

As his words suggested, Carlo was not exactly exuding the confidence of a championship winning side. Nevertheless, Frank Lampard was back in training, and the goal scoring midfielder may be the spark Chelsea need to get off the canvas and land a few good blows to retake charge of the Premier League. Early reports point to Ancelotti using the attacking midfielder on Sunday in a desperate attempt to break Chelsea’s poor form.

Note this match in your PDA calendar because it should be a good one. Tottenham promises goals as they have not recorded a scoreless draw in their last 24 matches across all competitions and have scored 2 or more goals in 5 or their last 6 matches.

So, who’s going to score, then?

AccuScore simulated Chelsea vs Tottenham 10,000 times to predict the most likely goal scorers for each side. AccuScore projected Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard as the most likely goal scorers for Chelsea with Drogba as the only player to score in 40% of simulations. This Chelsea duo combined for an average of 0.9 goals across 10,000 simulations, so AccuScore forecasted Lampard and Drogba scoring a goal between them. Jermaine Defore, Roman Pavlyuchenko, and Gareth Bale were the most likely scorers for Tottenham. The 3 of them combined for 7 shots with 3 on target. AccuScore assumed Rafael Van der Vaart would not be available for this match.

Quote:"I see Tottenham as genuine title rivals. They're having a good season and there is no reason why they can't challenge.” Didier Drogba, Chelsea striker

Injury Round Up:

Unfortunately for Spurs, injuries have hit the North London side harder than the cold winter. Dutch midfielder Rafael Van der Vaart tore his hamstring late last month and was expected to miss the trip to Chelsea, but the former Real Madrid man has not been officially ruled out because he was recovering faster than expected. Tom Huddleston, Ledley King, Younes Kaboul, and Giovanni Dos Santos, however, are definite absentees on the weekend. Luckily for Harry Redknapp’s team, Jermaine Defoe is fully fit again and played a full 90 minutes for the first time since August in Tuesday’s Champions League match. The England international scored a brace and helped win Group A over Inter Milan, Werder Bremen, and Twente Enschede.

Chelsea’s decline in the Premier League coincided with key injuries and suspensions. Between Drogba’s mysterious malaria, Lampard missing 3 months due to a hernia surgery that had a 2 week recovery time-table, and Michael Essien getting a red card in his first match after a short injury bout, Chelsea have rarely produced a first-choice XI. Well, with Frank Lampard returning to practice this week, Chelsea’s squad is almost completely fit, (ignoring the long term injuries to Yossi Benayoun and Alex). Chelsea are gambling on Lampard’s return to spark the squad, so Lampard will be risked against Spurs. Whatever the remedy, Chelsea better snap out of it in a hurry. United and Arsenal are not providing any holiday gifts in the coming weeks. Bosingwa picked up a knock during the Champions League, so Paulo Ferreira will likely start at right back…[enter Gareth Bale stage left]

Check back Tomorrow: Preview - #1Arsenal at #2Manchester United

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