Deron Williams Trade Shakes Up Playoff Picture
- Wednesday, February 23, 2011 7:51 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
The Nets-Knicks rivalry just might come to fruition after New Jersey pulled off the shocker of the trade deadline by acquiring All-Star point guard Deron Williams from Utah. The Nets sent rookie Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, two first-round picks, and cash to the Jazz for Williams. The Nets then sent Troy Murphy and a second-round pick to the Warriors for Dan Gadzuric and Brandan Wright.
The deal came as a big surprise, and reportedly came together very quickly in the wake of the Carmelo Anthony trade. While that trade barely moved the needle with regard to AccuScore’s projections for this season, the Williams trade is much more impactful. The Jazz are currently holding on to the 8th spot in the West just half a game ahead of Memphis. In 10,000 simulations after the trade, Utah’s playoff chances dropped from 53.4 percent to just 32.3 percent.
| UTAH JAZZ | WINS | LOSS | % | PLAYOFF |
| Before Trade | 42.6 | 39.4 | 52.0% | 53.4% |
| After Trade | 40.5 | 41.5 | 49.4% | 32.3% |
| FULL SEASON IMPACT | -2.1 | 2.1 | -2.6% | -21.1% |
| UTAH JAZZ | WINS | LOSS | % | PLAYOFF |
| Current Record | 31 | 26 | 54.4% | -- |
| Rest of Season (Before Trade) | 11.6 | 13.4 | 46.4% | 53.4% |
| Rest of Season (After Trade) | 9.5 | 15.5 | 38.0% | 32.3% |
| REST OF SEASON IMPACT | -2.1 | 2.1 | -8.4% | -21.1% |
NEW JERSEY NETS
The Nets are significantly better with Williams manning the point guard position, and now have a true marquee player to anchor their move to Brooklyn and attract other players. Williams is still not eligible to sign an extension, and could potentially be a free agent after the 2011-12 season.
This season though, New Jersey has virtually no shot at the playoffs trailing the 8th seeded Pacers by 9.5 games. They would likely need to win 20 of their remaining 25 games just to reach 37 wins and have a decent chance of overtaking Indiana. While that’s not likely, the Nets do improve by about six percentage points per game with Williams at the point.
| NEW JERSEY NETS | WINS | LOSS | % | PLAYOFF |
| Before Trade | 26.6 | 55.4 | 32.4% | 0.0% |
| After Trade | 28.1 | 53.9 | 34.3% | 0.2% |
| FULL SEASON IMPACT | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| NEW JERSEY NETS | WINS | LOSS | % | PLAYOFF |
| Current Record | 17 | 40 | 29.8% | -- |
| Rest of Season (Before Trade) | 9.6 | 15.4 | 38.4% | 0.0% |
| Rest of Season (After Trade) | 11.1 | 13.9 | 44.4% | 0.2% |
| REST OF SEASON IMPACT | 1.5 | -1.5 | 6.0% | 0.2% |
PLAYOFF PAIRINGS AFTER TRADES
The Eastern Conference had no change in playoff standings but the Knicks’ chances did increase +7.6 percent.
| PLAYOFF CHANCES | 2/21 | 2/23 | +/- |
| Miami Heat | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Boston Celtics | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Bulls | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Orlando Magic | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 99.9% | 99.9% | 0.0% |
| New York Knicks | 87.9% | 95.5% | 7.6% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 88.2% | 85.8% | -2.4% |
| Indiana Pacers | 59.9% | 61.7% | 1.8% |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 27.8% | 26.6% | -1.2% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 32.0% | 27.9% | -4.1% |
| Detroit Pistons | 4.3% | 2.4% | -1.9% |
| New Jersey Nets | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Toronto Raptors | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington Wizards | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
In the West the Nuggets dipped after the Carmelo trade, but Utah’s decline resulted in an improvement overall by the Nuggets. More importantly, the Memphis Grizzlies now have the eighth highest chance at the playoffs in the West.
| PLAYOFF CHANCES | 2/21 | 2/23 | +/- |
| San Antonio Spurs | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| LA Lakers | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 99.4% | 99.8% | 0.4% |
| New Orleans Hornets | 92.4% | 94.8% | 2.4% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 86.7% | 89.7% | 3.0% |
| Denver Nuggets | 82.8% | 86.3% | 3.5% |
| Utah Jazz | 50.8% | 32.3% | -18.5% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 51.4% | 53.6% | 2.2% |
| Phoenix Suns | 20.5% | 24.2% | 3.7% |
| Golden State Warriors | 13.2% | 12.0% | -1.2% |
| Houston Rockets | 5.5% | 9.6% | 4.1% |
| LA Clippers | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacramento Kings | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
