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ACCUSCORE’S 2010 NBA DRAFT PREVIEW

AccuScore could spend days running billions of simulations about the impact of different rookies on all the different teams to see which players each team should draft. However, we do not need to run these numbers to know that there are really only 5 to 10 rookies a year that actually make a significant statistical impact in their first year (i.e. double digit points and/or 4+ assists and/or 4+ rebounds). Rather than use up all of our super-computer resources for 2 or 3 meaningful findings, we decided to save some a ton of time and focus on a few key player evaluation questions that will actually make a significant impact on the teams that draft these players.

QUESTION 3: Comparing Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins
The other prized big man at the top of this draft is DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is not as athletic as Favors, and his commitment to both the game and staying in shape is questionable. His potential however, as a low post scorer, rebounder and defender are as high as anyone in the draft. His skill set if not found very often even in the NBA which makes him so tantalizing as a prospect despite his off-court issues. Offensively and on the boards we drew from players like Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson to create our virtual Cousins. We also made him a better defensive player than Boozer and Jefferson. Remember, the goal of this analysis is to evaluate the impact of these top players if they fulfill their potential.

Cousins likely could not co-exist with Elton Brand, but if Cousins was as good as his stats would indicate and he gets the bulk of minutes at the PF spot he has a larger positive impact on the Sixers than Favors. You can see why a number of stats-focused analysis rates Cousins as the top prospect in the draft. His impact is slightly greater than Favors’ on the Sixers.

The one thing the Nets are happy with after last year is the play of Brook Lopez. He is a skilled low post scorer, and there may not be space down low for both Lopez and Cousins to operate. While the overall impact is virtually the same the slightest edge in impact goes to Favors whose presence on the offensive boards could be a nice pairing with Lopez.

The T-Wolves may also look to add one of these two big men. This would definitely come with a trade of Al Jefferson and/or Kevin Love. Adding either Favors or Cousins to the current roster would not make much of an impact since Jefferson and Love are still on the team. The impact for both players is nearly half the impact they have on the Nets with the slight edge going to Cousins.

The Kings have drafted some big men the past few years (Spencer Hawes, Jon Brockman, Jason Thompson), and traded for undersized power forward Carl Landry last year. If Favors or Cousins performed to his potential, they would be clear upgrades over these current Kings big men. Again, the impact is very similar but Cousins ability to score with his back to the basket and draw double teams seems to help the Kings win slightly more than they win with Favors.