Fantasy Fallout - MLB Week 7 - Ely Mania, Jeff Francis And Prospect Strategy

  • Wednesday, May 26, 2010 4:49 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Ely-mania sweeps the (fantasy) nation
John Ely was acquired by the Dodgers in the Juan Pierre deal, and what a great move it’s turned out to be. Ely had a rocky first start, but has since pitched so well Dodger fans are now extolling his virtues from virtual mountain-tops with the hash-tag #ElyMania. Over four May starts, Ely has gone 3-0 over 25.2 IP with a 2.45 ERA, 24 strikeouts, and incredibly just one walk.

The guy’s stuff doesn’t scream fantasy star, but it’s hard to argue with the results. He should continue to post a solid WHIP with an ERA around 4.00. His style keeps the Dodgers in games which should give him a good chance to continue picking up wins. Ely is a solid pick-up at the end of your rotations even in standard mixed leagues.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron return
No more Darnell McDonald for Boston in the outfield. Ellsbury made a quicker than expected return, and the reports from his rehab were good. He should be solid and safe moving forward. I worry much more about Cameron given his age, and the fact that he needed more time to recover after missing his initial return date. Ellsbury has a composite fantasy rating of 72 while Cameron is just 41 to give an idea of their relative value the rest of the season.

Jimmy Rollins heads back to the land of the injured
The Phillies SS has played in just 12 games this season with 41 at-bats. His return from the DL lasted just 5 games before another calf injury sent him down for the count once again. The initial injury cost him 31 games over 5 weeks, and he aggravated the same injury again. With the very real possibility that this issue lingers, I would be very aggressive in trying to trade him for 75 cents on the dollar. Rollins is one of the premier players at his position when healthy, but you can’t count on that the rest of the season. AccuScore projects him to hit .265 with 12 home runs and 18 steals the rest of the season, not the numbers fans would expect when they drafted him. Try to find some value in return.

Jeff Francis back doing his thing
Francis used to be a useful fantasy pitcher back in 2006-07 with 30 combined wins and ERAs in the low 4.00s. He was terrible in ’08 and missed all of last season with injury. Francis is finally back, and has had two solid starts: 13.1 IP, 9 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 1 ER. Several caveats apply namely the starts were against the Royals and Nationals. Also, Francis has been very hittable (12 allowed) and he is giving up plenty of fly balls without any of them flying out of the park yet. Basically it boils down to team needs. Francis is who he is when healthy, a solid innings-eating lefty with a career 6.20 K/9 and an ERA somewhere in the low 4.00s.

John Jaso impressing
This catcher has surprised in Tampa, and is widely available in most leagues (96.4% ESPN, 81% CBS). The rookie is hitting .328/.452/.507 and even hit third in the lineup earlier this week. He is projected to fall off a bit by AccuScore, but he is still projected to hit .298 the rest of the way. He looks like he has surpassed Dioner Navarro, and you have to believe Bud Black will find at-bats for him even when Kelly Shoppach makes his return. Turn to Jaso if you need catcher help or target him in deeper leagues from owners who think his playing time will disappear.

Mike Leake is making a strong ROY case
The young right-hander didn’t have one inning of minor league experience
Somehow, Leake is only owned in 64 percent of ESPN leagues, but 87 percent of CBS leagues. Snap him up quickly.

Mike Sweeney thinks it’s 2002
The old DH has started eight of Seattle’s past 11 games raising his average from .176 all the way to .297. Sweeney had four multi-hit games with five homeruns and 11 RBI. Even with this nova-like streak, I wouldn’t make a move. The Seattle offense is still the worst in the majors, and Sweeney is still old and injury-prone. Even through this past week there have been reports that Sweeney is suffering from his chronic back issues.

Rafael Furcal finally ready to make his return
After some starts and stops in his rehabilitation from a strained hamstring, Furcal is expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday. Jamey Carroll returns to a utility role.

Miguel Cabrera is having a baby
Or rather his wife is. Cabrera will miss the Tigers’ short two-game series with Seattle. Either Ryan Raburn or Don Kelly will fill-in at 1B.

Chris Ianetta recalled
Sent down to the minors for a month, Ianetta is back with the Rockies. While down at AAA Colorado Springs, Ianetta hit .349 with 5 home runs in 63 at-bats. It is unclear how much he will play with Miguel Olivo entrenched as the starter, but there is more upside with Ianetta. He’s a player worth watching for the next couple weeks to see if a time-share develops.

Prospect time: Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Stephen Strasburg
There’s just one week until the calendar flips to June which means there will soon be a parade of top prospects making their debuts at the major league level. In 2-3 weeks most of these prospects will safely be beyond Super Two status. If any of these four top-level rookies are available in your leagues and you have a need (Stanton for power, Posey/Santana for catching, and Strasburg for pitching) now would be the time to stash these guys on your bench.

The three position players are very widely available in ESPN and CBS public leagues, while Strasburg is mostly owned. Aroldis Chapman is a lower level alternative in my mind to Strasburg who could match the strikeout potential of Strasburg, but maybe not the other peripheral numbers. It’s been widely speculated that Strasburg could start on June 4, which has been flatly denied by Nationals management. That denial makes me think the speculation is right.





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