Is Derrick Favors A Better Fit For Philly Than Evan Turner?
- Friday, June 18, 2010 3:46 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
ACCUSCORE’S 2010 NBA DRAFT PREVIEW
AccuScore could spend days running billions of simulations about the impact of different rookies on all the different teams to see which players each team should draft. However, we do not need to run these numbers to know that there are really only 5 to 10 rookies a year that actually make a significant statistical impact in their first year (i.e. double digit points and/or 4+ assists and/or 4+ rebounds). Rather than use up all of our super-computer resources for 2 or 3 meaningful findings, we decided to save some a ton of time and focus on a few key player evaluation questions that will actually make a significant impact on the teams that draft these players.
QUESTION 2: Should Philadelphia Take Derrick Favors or Evan Turner?
Derrick Favors stock was already high despite relatively modest numbers in his one year at Georgia Tech, but with measurables that match him closely with Dwight Howard Favors is now being viewed as a legitimate possibility as the number two overall draft pick. The Sixers just traded Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni. Some think that this indicates they will draft Derrick Favors over Evan Turner in order to replace much of what they lose with Dalembert.
The positive scouting reports for Favors make him seem like a combination of Dwight Howard and maybe Antonio McDyess (pre-injuries). For this “best possible scenario” forecast we took a combination of Howard and McDyess in their second seasons to create Derrick Favors. We used the same virtual Evan Turner that we used in our first scenario comparing him to John Wall.
FORECASTED STATS |
PTS |
REB |
AST |
TO |
BLK |
FG% |
FT% |
3P% |
Derrick Favors |
14.1 |
10.3 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
51.1% |
65.0% |
-- |
Evan Turner |
16.4 |
5.7 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
0.4 |
49.0% |
77.0% |
30.6% |
Before the Dalembert trade Turner had a more positive impact on the Sixers than Favors. However, after the trade the situation has been reversed and now Favors is the recommended pick for the Sixers assuming both Turner and Favors live up to high expectations. The Sixers need an athletic PF/C who can rebound, block shots, and use his athleticism to score 12 to 15 points on 50%+ shooting.
SIXERS FORECAST |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
PLAYOFF% |
Current Roster |
31.1 |
50.9 |
37.9% |
22.4% |
Derrick Favors |
36.7 |
45.3 |
44.8% |
37.1% |
Evan Turner |
33.9 |
48.1 |
41.3% |
32.5% |
Favors Advantage |
2.8 |
|
3.4% |
4.6% |
