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Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
From White Hart Lane
on
Sunday, January 12, 2011

Although the English Premier League offers three major derbies(the Merceyside derby, the Tyne-Wear derby, and the Second City derby), the most exciting fixture in the English Premier League this weekend is Manchester United against Tottenham Hotspur from White Hart Lane. On Sunday, Manchester United play their first Premier League match against a top 4 opponent in over a month, and, yes, David Beckham should be in attendance.

Nearly 5 months into the season, Manchester United remain undefeated in domestic league play despite Wayne Rooney not scoring a goal from open play until United’s 19th league match on new year’s day. After 20 rounds, Manchester United comfortably hold a 2 point lead on 2nd place Manchester City, while having played 2 fewer matches than their cross-city rivals (at Blackpool and at Chelsea were postponed due to weather). After all these years, Sir Alex still continues to amaze with his consistency, and Nani has stepped into the spotlight, as many hoped he would, following Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure to Real Madrid 2 seasons ago.

In 16 domestic appearances this season, Nani has recorded 6 goals and 9 assists. The Portuguese winger has been, arguably, the most consistent and important player throughout United’s first half of the season. More, Nani has repeatedly stepped up to be United’s premier player on occasions when Rooney has been unavailable and Berbatov has simply been sub-par (far more often than his 14 goals lead on). Last weekend, for example, United were the much better side against Stoke City, but Stoke leveled 1-1 on 50 minutes with a Dean Whitehead header. United required a swift response, but Rooney was busy socializing in an Old Trafford luxury box, and Berbatov was busy chasing mosquitoes. Just past the hour mark, Nani met a pass just outside the right side of the box and put in a sublime left footed curler to the bottom left corner. United held on to win 2-1 behind Nani’s spectacular match winner. With that shot, Nani delivered 3 points and took on the role of United’s savior.

The only Red Devil offering more consistency than Nani this season has been center defender Nemanja Vidic. Vidic is the only United player to start all 20 league matches this season. Vidic was the first name on the team sheet, and Vidic has been as omnipresent on the field as Rooney has been off it. If Diego Maradona was sitting in Alex Ferguson’s seat, he would likely say, “Manchester United are Vidic plus 10.” The vertically-gifted Serbian center-half has not only been the best defender on the 2nd best defensive team in this season’s English Premier League (only Manchester City have conceded fewer goals), Vidic has also knocked in 3 goals and recorded 1 assist in his 20 league starts. For those of you keeping count, Vidic has 1 more goal than Wayne Rooney this season. Wazza?

As usual, Tottenham promise to provide a great atmosphere for Sunday’s match and guarantee stars on and off the pitch. No, David Beckham will not be playing, but he will probably be in attendance. As such, the TV cameras will likely show Becks about fifteen more times than any football fan would care for, but that is one of the 3 evils all present-day football fans must accept with modern day technology: snoods, diving, and evidence of horrific officiating being the other three. Once the cameras and announcers get past Becks, they will inevitably realize that Sunday serves up Manchester United’s toughest test of this season through 21 rounds.

To this point, the toughest fixture on Manchester United’s schedule was a trip to Manchester City. However, that match was a dull 0-0 bore-fest because Mancini and City were happy to apply negative tactics and walk away with 1 point against Manchester United. Aside from that match, United have not played away to a top-5 side all season.

Tottenham, unlike City, expect to attack Manchester United, and Spurs are an especially electric side at home. Spurs have only lost 1 match in 11 contests at White Hart Lane this season. They also won all 3 Champions League fixtures at The Lane. Further, Tottenham have a habit of scoring goals and creating exciting contests. Tottenham have scored at least 1 goal in their last 15 matches across all competitions. The last time Tottenham did not score a goal was on 30th October, 2010, against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The 30th of October meeting between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United was at a strange point in the season and presented some scary Halloween-inspired events. That 2-0 defeat was the infamous game where Nani clearly handled a ball, Gomes snatched the ball and put it down for a free kick, and Nani walked up and kicked it past the goal keeper; yes, Mark Clattenburg’s Halloween gift to Manchester United. Entering that match, Spurs had just lost 4-3 at the San Siro, but Gareth Bale’s star had risen about 3 quarters up the sky after his 2nd half hat-trick at the San Siro. With an eye on the upcoming mid-week match against Inter at the Lane, Harry Redknapp started Robbie Keane in one of Keane’s 2 starts of the season. Tom Huddlestone was rested despite being healthy at the time, and Jermaine Jenas was tossed into the midfield to manage the game.

Vidic was the only legitimate scorer in the October meeting. Not surprisingly, he headed in a well delivered Nani free-kick. Even at Old Trafford, these two teams put on a lively show that was ultimately ruined by Clattenburg’s embarrassingly bad decision in the 84th minute. The two teams combined for 32 shots but only 12 shots were on goal. Along with refereeing, the finishing on that day was frighteningly bad.

Fortunately, Tottenham quickly put that match and decision behind them, and Gareth Bale proceeded to carve up Inter Milan a few days later. Since the 2nd Inter Milan match, Gareth Bale has become the most desired commodity in Europe. Tottenham’s other star, Rafael Van der Vaart, went on to score 6 goals and pass 5 assists in the 10 appearances he has made for Spurs following the loss at Old Trafford. Although Gareth Bale suffered an injury scare last weekend, he expects to be fully fit after sitting out the FA Cup tie against Charlton. Also, Jermaine Defoe is back from suspension and expects to start.

Tottenham expect to rely on their 2 most highly publicized stars on Sunday: Rafael Van der Vaart and Gareth Bale. If either of these two players succumbs to injury or has an untimely bad game, Tottenham do not possess the caliber of players to replace their 2 most prized assets. The duo of Bale and Van der Vaart have combined for 16 goals and 6 assists this season—they directly create more than a goal a game between the two of them. Despite how simple this two man formula may seem, it works as well as Peter Crouch’s knock down header strategy.

Tottenham are currently in 4th place, 8 points behind Manchester United despite having played 1 more match than the Red Devils. At the moment, Spurs do not truly anticipate catching United despite what the players may say, but qualifying for Champions League is of the highest importance for the North London club. Chelsea are only 1 point behind Spurs for the coveted 4th place spot, so Tottenham know that holding on to fourth place requires home victories against the top 4.

For Manchester United, the motivation for a win at White Hart Lane is simpler. After nearly 5 months of unbeaten EPL football, every match is a step closer to making history. Most experts agree that the Premier League title is Manchester United’s to lose more than it is any other team’s to win. With this mindset and with Sir Alex Ferguson leading the squad, every match United don’t win, regardless of who or where they play, is magnified and scrutinized. If Tottenham manage a victory on Sunday, United may look back at this match as the one that kept this team out of the history books.

AccuScore Simulation Analysis

AccuScore incorporated an intensely detailed level of data analysis to play this match out 1 pass at a time for 90 minutes and repeated the process 10,000 times to arrive at accurate match forecasting data. Originally, AccuScore incorporated an 11 man United lineup that included Dimitar Berbatov and Wayne Rooney and anticipated Javier Hernandez coming in as a 2nd half substitute against a Hotspur lineup that included Van der Vaart and Defoe but anticipated Crouch entering in the 2nd half. With this scenario, AccuScore projected Manchester United winning 46% of simulations, losing 28%, and drawing 26% of the time.

However, most MUFC fans know that Sir Alex has a habit of putting out a 4-5-1 against tough opponents, especially on the road. As such, AccuScore re-performed simulations with an 11-man United squad featuring Rooney as the lone front man and Berbatov being left out against an 11 man Tottenham that started Defoe and Rafa Van der Vaart: excluding substitutes for both teams. In this scenario, AccuScore calculated that Tottenham won 35% of simulations, United won 37% of simulations, and match ended in a draw 28% of the time. So, with Sir Alex playing a 4-5-1 against Tottenham’s 4-5-1, Tottenham’s chances of winning increased compared to United playing a 4-4-2 against Tottenham’s 4-5-1.

In both scenarios, AccuScore projects this to be a close encounter that leans in United’s favor. This statistical favoritism makes sense considering United have not yet lost a league match and beat Tottenham 2-0 earlier this season. However, anyone who witnessed the match at Old Trafford would quickly add that Tottenham could have just as easily walked away with 3 points. This should be a great match, and, AccuScore confirmed our suspicions.

AccuScore also provided individual goal scorer predictions for this match. If Berbatov and Rooney start for Manchester United in a 4-4-2, Dimitar Berbatov was the most likely goal scorer in the match, as the Bulgarian striker scored in 42% of simulations. In the 4-4-2 scenario, Rooney scored in 30% of simulations. When Rooney started as the lone striker in a 4-5-1, the former Everton forward scored in 37% of simulations and became the most likely goal scorer for Manchester United. AccuScore projects Wayne Rooney’s probability of scoring to increase when Berbatov is on the bench, but United’s chances of winning increase when Berbatov is starting alongside Wazza.

In both scenarios, Rafael Van der Vaart was the most likely goal scorer for Totthenham Hotspur. The attacking Dutch midfielder scored in about 1/3 of simulations under both scenarios. Jermaine Defoe was considered the 2nd most likely Tottenham scorer, and Gareth Bale was 3rd most likely Spur to find the target in both scenarios.

AccuScore provides individual and team statistical data and historical trends for all English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Spanish Primera Liga, and UEFA Champions League matches. Go to AccuScore.com/Soccer for a risk-free 7 day trial.

EPL Expert Pick

Despite Manchester United being favored over 20,000 simulations, AccuScore’s record on projecting value on MUFC winning is only 6-7. Further, the Over 2.5 sounds like a good pick at first, but these teams are a combined 9-8 when AccuScore projects value on the Over. As such, AccuScore does not find much value in picking anything in this match. This match is a sure bet for a football fan but not a gambler.

AccuScore projected Newcastle to win against Sunderland at +277 to have value. Although AccuScore is only 6-10 in situations it calculated value on Newcastle winning, AccuScore is +1697units in those 16 picks (assuming 100 units were placed on each value situation). As such, AccuScore advises picking Newcastle to win at the Stadium of Light at +277.

AccuScore also advises picking Arsenal to win at -169 at West Ham United. Although these odds do not provide high ROI, AccuScore calculated value in picking Arsenal to win. Further, AccuScore is 4-1 when projecting value on Arsenal winning. As such, AccuScore advises picking Arsenal to win at West Ham at -169.

Review AccuScore's Soccer Pick Review to see how the picks have been doing to this point.

Also, click here for the Bundesliga Preview and Expert Pick for this week