MLB Closer Report - Week 16 - Trade Targets

  • Tuesday, July 27, 2010 3:40 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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This week in the Closer Report: talking trade targets and both Bobby Jenks and Kerry Wood get votes of confidence from their managers.

NL

Closer

Back-Up

ARI

Juan Gutierrez

Heilman, Demel, Qualls

ATL

Billy Wagner

Takashi Saito

CHC

Carlos Marmol

Sean Marshall

CIN

Francisco Cordero

Arthur Rhodes

COL

Huston Street

Manny Corpas

FLA

Leo Nuñez

Brian Sanches

HOU

Matt Lindstrom

Brandon Lyon

LAD

Jonathan Broxton

Hong-Chih Kuo

MIL

John Axford

Trevor Hoffman

NYM

Francisco Rodriguez

Pedro Feliciano

PHI

Brad Lidge

Jose Contreras

PIT

Octavio Dotel

Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan

SD

Heath Bell

Luke  Gregerson

SF

Brian Wilson

Jeremy Affeldt

STL

Ryan Franklin

Jason Motte

WAS

Matt Capps

Drew Storen

• The most likely NL closers to be traded?  I’ll go with Matt Capps from Washington and Octavio Dotel with Pittsburgh. Both players would probably be sent to teams with established closers, and in both cases both guys would be droppable in all but the deepest formats.

In Washington I think the vacated closer job would go to Drew Storen. He was drafted as the future closer, and aside from some control issues (4.4 BB/9) he’s been solid in his rookie season. Giving the job to Tyler Clippard would seem counterproductive given their relative positions in the franchise. Clippard also has pitched very poorly over the past month allowing 16 runs in his last 13.2 IP.

Pittsburgh has two candidates for the job: Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan. While Meek currently has an ERA more than 2 runs better than Hanrahan (1.30 to 3.59) their FIPs (removing fielding from the equation) are nearly identical (2.91 to 2.76) with Hanrahan actually coming out slightly better. Hanrahan also has much better strikeout stuff sitting down 12.45 batters per 9 compared to just under 8 for Meek.  Hanrahan also has the all important “experience” with 14 career saves compared to just 1 for Meek. Even though Meek was inexplicably an All-Star this year (over deserving teammate and outfielder Andrew McCutchen) I believe Hanrahan is the better choice to take over the Pittsburgh closer role should Dotel be moved this week.

• Arizona interim manager Kirk Gibson is now trying to trust his bullpen more, and in turn appears to be using Juan Gutierrez as his de facto closer even though he has not named him officially. Gutierrez has logged the last two saves for the D-Backs, and he’s the one guy I would consider owning in a mixed league. I wouldn’t trust him however in a 10-team league, and would prefer to stay away from this situation completely.

 

AL

Closer

Back-Up

BAL

Alfredo Simon

Mike Gonzalez

BOS

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

CHW

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz

CLE

Chris Perez

Wood (DL)

DET

Jose Valverde

Phil Coke

KC

Joakim Soria

Kyle Farnsworth

LAA

Brian Fuentes

Fernando Rodney

MIN

Jon Rauch

Matt Guerrier

NYY

Mariano Rivera

Joba Chamberlain

OAK

Andrew Bailey

Michael Wuertz

SEA

David Aardsma

Brandon League

TB

Rafael Soriano

Grant Balfour

TEX

Neftali Feliz

Frank Francisco

TOR

Kevin Gregg

Scott Downs

• There doesn’t appear to be a clear trade possibility among AL closers because of Kerry Wood’s injury. Players more likely to move are middle relievers like Scott Downs or Jason Frasor from Toronto or Kyle Farnsworth from Kansas City. Any reliever that moves to the Yankees immediately loses almost all value because Mariano Rivera is the only true “lock” in the majors.

• Kerry Wood’s injury more than likely precludes him being moved at the trade deadline, and Manny Acta says he will keep the closer job when he returns from injury.  That obviously isn’t good news for Chris Perez who has performed well in a temporary role. Wood of course is still an injury risk going forward, but Perez takes a value hit for the rest of the year.  Wood is 8-for-11 in save situations and Perez is 9-for-12 this season.

• Despite rumors to the contrary Bobby Jenks never lost his closer job according to White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. "We're a better ballclub if Bobby is our closer because that makes a lot of things easier for us,” said Guillen.  It certainly sounds like Jenks will be afforded every opportunity to keep pitching in the 9th, but if he continues to struggle J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton would both be in the mix for saves. Thornton already has five saves in seven opportunities this year.

• Baltimore still has not officially gone back to Mike Gonzalez as its closer. The last save for the team though was last Friday and completed by Alfredo Simon.  Gonzo has thrown just 1.2 innings since returning from the DL, and the team probably wants him to keep him in a set-up role awhile longer. Given the fragile state of Gonzalez, I would say Simon still has value the rest of the year. I’d keep Simon over other AL set-up men like Chris Perez, Daniel Bard, and Brandon League (but not Matt Thornton). 

• Joba Chamberlain has lost the exclusive set-up role to Mo Rivera. What that means if Rivera were to ever get hurt or be unavailable to close is unclear. Both Nate Robertson and Boone Logan will be part of the mix in the 8th inning now, and it would be hard to imagine the Yankees trusting Joba to close if they don’t trust him in the 8th. I don’t think this increases the value of either Robertson or Logan.  What it does mean is that the Yankees are probably trying to find some bullpen help via trade.  A guy like Scott Downs, if he were to be acquired would probably become the set-up man/back-up closer for the Yanks.





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