MLB Playoff Probabilities After Week 24
- Monday, September 20, 2010 12:32 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota and Texas have not mathematically clinched playoff spots, but in 10,000 AccuScore simulations there were none where the Twins did not win the AL Central and the Rangers did not win the AL West. The only playoff “race” that is up in the air is Yankees vs. Rays AL East winner. The Yankees are up 0.5 games and in simulations they are finishing one game up on the Rays because in their upcoming four-game series the Yankees have home-field advantage.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 24 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 13-Sep | 20-Sep | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Minnesota Twins | 98.9% | 100.0% | 1.1% | 100.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 99.3% | 99.9% | 0.6% | 42.2% |
| Texas Rangers | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| New York Yankees | 99.2% | 99.6% | 0.4% | 57.8% |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.6% | 0.6% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Athletics | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 2.1% | 0.0% | -2.1% | 0.0% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Last week Colorado was coming off a huge winning streak, but AccuScore forecasted a statistical correction for Colorado and a 10-9 finish. The Rockies ended up going 3-3 this week and as a result their playoff chances dipped -2.5 percentage points. They did not lose ground in the NL West because San Francisco was just 3-3 and dipped -2.2 points and San Diego was just 3-4 and dropped -15.3 points. The only NL West team that will likely make the playoffs is the division winner. All three teams play series against each other. If one team resoundingly beats the other two, then it is unlikely that these two would get a wild card. If all three beat each other “equally” then again, none would be in a great position to catch Atlanta in the wild card race.
All NL West teams lost ground to Atlanta (4-2 this week) and Philadelphia (a perfect 6-0). The Phillies jumped +10.1 percentage points and are now the heavy favorite to win the NL East at 83.6 percent and a virtual lock at making another playoff run. Atlanta may not win the NL East but the Braves actually jumped +11.8 points (more than Philadelphia) because of their two-game lead in the wild card race. Atlanta is benefiting from the round-robin NL West with San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego all hurting each other.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 24 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 13-Sep | 20-Sep | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Atlanta Braves | 77.7% | 89.5% | 11.8% | 16.4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 89.6% | 99.7% | 10.1% | 83.6% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 94.3% | 98.3% | 4.0% | 98.3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 48.4% | 46.2% | -2.2% | 42.7% |
| Colorado Rockies | 29.5% | 27.0% | -2.5% | 23.6% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 7.5% | 1.7% | -5.8% | 1.7% |
| San Diego Padres | 52.8% | 37.5% | -15.3% | 33.6% |
