MLB Playoff Probabilities After Week 6
- Monday, May 17, 2010 4:57 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here is the AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2010 MLB season after six weeks of play.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Tigers led the AL in playoff probability improvement with a +18 percentage point week. They were 5-2 with quality wins over the Yankees and potential Wild Card competitor Boston. The Tigers rise also took a -10.8 percentage point chunk out of the Twins’ chances who despite their grand-slam off of Mariano Rivera still finished just 2-3 this week. Despite the down week the Twins are still heavy 73 percent favorites to win the AL Central. Both teams benefit from lackluster efforts so far from the White Sox, Royals and Indians.
The Angels had a good 4-2 week and more than doubled their playoff chances, but considering they are still 3 games under .500 they still have under a 15 percent chance. The rest of the AL West was amazingly stable this week with no team rising or falling more than a couple of percentage points.
The NY Yankees were just 3-4 with losses in Detroit and the shocking loss to the Twins. While their playoff chances took a -8.6 percentage point hit they are still clearly in control of their playoff destiny with a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 53 percent chance of catching the Rays despite being 2 games back currently. The Rays parlayed a 4-2 week into a solid +5 percentage point increase and they have the 2nd highest playoff percentage despite being in the same division as the Yankees, the #1 in playoff percentage.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 6 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 10-May | 17-May | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Detroit Tigers | 20.7% | 38.8% | 18.1% | 26.3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 7.1% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 14.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 76.2% | 81.1% | 4.9% | 43.9% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 7.2% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% |
| Seattle Mariners | 7.1% | 7.2% | 0.1% | 7.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| Chicago White Sox | 1.8% | 0.6% | -1.2% | 0.4% |
| Texas Rangers | 59.1% | 56.8% | -2.3% | 56.6% |
| Boston Red Sox | 8.7% | 6.0% | -2.7% | 1.2% |
| Oakland Athletics | 28.2% | 21.7% | -6.5% | 21.5% |
| New York Yankees | 93.6% | 85.0% | -8.6% | 52.9% |
| Minnesota Twins | 89.7% | 78.9% | -10.8% | 73.0% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
While the AL was marked by its lack of playoff shifts, the NL is marked by a major shift of 10+ percentage points (positively and negatively) for 8 teams and only two teams shifted by less than 2 percentage points. The Dodgers continue stay hot and after an undefeated week their playoff chances have skyrocketed by +32 points. While the Giants were a decent 3-3 they still lose over 25 points because they were swept by division leader San Diego at home, instead of taking 2 of 3 as the odds would expect. The Padres were not able to capitalize on this sweep because they were in turn swept by the Dodgers. The Rockies also had a big 4-2 week and wins over Washington are no longer considered easy wins but rather quality wins.
The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with an impressive series vs the Cardinals. The Reds may have been home underdogs in these games but they won 2 of 3 and saw their playoff chances jump 25 points, primarily at the expense of the Cardinals who plummeted over 25 percentage points.
The Atlanta Braves were 5-1 but only saw a minor +2.4 percentage point improvement. They were expected to go 4-2 this week so a 5-1 week is only +1 better than expected. They are still 5.5 games back. The Phillies and Marlins were our pre-season picks to lead the NL East and the Mets 1-6 week have brought them back down to earth with a -6 point drop.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 6 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 10-May | 17-May | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 9.3% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 31.4% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 8.4% | 33.7% | 25.3% | 19.4% |
| Florida Marlins | 7.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% | 6.5% |
| Colorado Rockies | 12.6% | 23.0% | 10.4% | 15.8% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 88.4% | 92.1% | 3.7% | 86.6% |
| Atlanta Braves | 1.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| San Diego Padres | 19.0% | 16.1% | -2.9% | 10.2% |
| Washington Nationals | 23.8% | 18.8% | -5.0% | 5.4% |
| New York Mets | 7.2% | 1.2% | -6.0% | 0.4% |
| Chicago Cubs | 16.5% | 9.9% | -6.6% | 5.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 15.9% | 4.8% | -11.1% | 2.7% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 20.3% | 7.4% | -12.9% | 4.6% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 94.9% | 80.5% | -14.4% | 72.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 73.8% | 48.2% | -25.6% | 38.1% |
