MLB Playoff Probabilities After Week 12
- Tuesday, June 29, 2010 3:26 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The White Sox's winning streak finally came to an end but they still had a 5-1 week and saw their playoff probability jump nearly 16 percentage points. The Twins still lead the AL Central but after going just 1-5 their playoff chances dropped nearly 14 points. While these playoff percentage swings are substantial, they are not as big as they would have been had the 5-1 White Sox and 1-5 Twins played within the AL or in the AL Central. The upcoming week could have huge AL Playoff ramifications. The Twins are at home vs the Tigers and Rays. The Twins must go 4-2 against their main division rival and a key Wild Card rival if they want to continue to lead the AL Central. Even a respectable 3-3 week could result in a drop of 10 playoff points because the match-ups are so important.
The Rangers continue to roll and their playoff chances jumped 14 percentage points all the way to 95 percent. They have had the easiest schedule in the league based on their opponent's combined winning percentage, but it's not like they should be 'ashamed' of this. They did what they were supposed to do when the schedule is on your side --- you beat the bad teams. Texas' success hurt the Angels lowering their chances by 8.5 points despite the fact the Angels' 4-2 record.
The New York Yankees scored 4 in the 9th inning against Jonathan Broxton to come back and take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers. This capped a 4-2 week and the Yankees have re-established themselves as the clear leader in the AL East with a 71 percent chance of winning the division. The Red Sox were just 3-3 and saw their playoff chances drop nearly 6 percent. Even though the Red Sox won 2 games without Dustin Pedroia AccuScore indicates that the Red Sox's playoff chances take a minus 10 hit if Pedroia is out around 6 to 8 weeks. The Rays are clearly struggling but they are going back on the road where they have dominated with a 24-12 record. There is a huge 2 game series in Boston and the Rays could turn things around quickly if they can take 2 in Boston.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 12 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 21-Jun | 28-Jun | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Chicago White Sox | 1.3% | 17.0% | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| Texas Rangers | 81.0% | 95.0% | 14.0% | 94.7% |
| New York Yankees | 80.0% | 89.8% | 9.8% | 71.2% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3.9% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 41.2% | 40.4% | -0.8% | 35.3% |
| Oakland Athletics | 5.6% | 1.3% | -4.3% | 1.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 56.6% | 50.8% | -5.8% | 15.9% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 48.2% | 40.8% | -7.4% | 12.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 13.9% | 5.4% | -8.5% | 4.3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 68.1% | 54.3% | -13.8% | 49.8% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Phillies got a real gift when they got to play their road games vs Toronto at home. Their 5-1 week was timed perfectly with 2-4 weeks from a key NL East competitor, Atlanta, and two key Wild Card competitors, the Dodgers and Giants. The combined winning percentage of the Phillies' remaining opponents is significantly lower than their opponents to date and AccuScore expects Philadelphia to close the 2.5 game gap in the NL East over the next month and eventually take the division. The Mets also had a good +8.7 percentage point improvement, but with 5 more road games than home games this season their remaining schedule is not as favorable as the Phillies' remaining schedule.
There were some unexpected results in the NL Central. The Reds were 5-1 and re-took the division lead but saw their playoff chances dip slightly by -2.7 percentage points and the Cardinals were just 3-3 but saw a 8.2 point improvement. Both teams performed to expectations this week with the Cardinals going 3-3 on the road and the Reds going 5-1 vs losing teams like Oakland and Cleveland. The reason why St. Louis is our favorite in the division is the fact that the Cardinals have 5 more home games than road games the rest of the season while Cincinnati has 10 more road games. This +15 home game advantage for the Cardinals should ultimately translate into a 4 or 5 game lead at the end of the season.
AccuScore has to finally accept that the Padres are for real after a 5-1 week and a +17.7 point improvement. It was especially impressive that the 5-1 came on the road. The Padres were helped out by the struggles of the Dodgers and Giants who were both 2-4. The Dodgers and Giants play a series that starts Monday and the Rockies and Padres play a series. By Thursday it is possible that our top 4 in the NL West could be re-arranged significantly based on the outcome of these series.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 12 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 21-Jun | 28-Jun | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 42.5% | 63.6% | 21.1% | 51.2% |
| San Diego Padres | 23.8% | 41.5% | 17.7% | 31.9% |
| New York Mets | 26.7% | 35.4% | 8.7% | 23.4% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 73.9% | 82.1% | 8.2% | 74.1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 23.6% | 28.9% | 5.3% | 21.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Marlins | 9.8% | 8.7% | -1.1% | 5.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 5.4% | 2.8% | -2.6% | 1.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 43.2% | 40.5% | -2.7% | 23.7% |
| Chicago Cubs | 4.0% | 1.2% | -2.8% | 0.7% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.5% | 45.0% | -5.5% | 35.8% |
| San Francisco Giants | 38.6% | 16.2% | -22.4% | 11.2% |
| Atlanta Braves | 56.8% | 31.2% | -25.6% | 18.8% |
