MLB Playoff Probabilities After Week 15
- Monday, July 19, 2010 2:01 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Twins 9th inning comeback against division leader Chicago had a major playoff impact. The win helped the Twins improve their playoff chances by over 15 percent as they not only beat Chicago 3 out of 4 but also benefited from Detroit's 0-4 week. If the Twins lost on Sunday their playoff chances would only have been 36.7%, instead of 50%. Not all wins are created equal. The Tigers 0-4 record was especially bad because they came against Cleveland at home. These are about as close to 4 "sure wins" as you can get and to go 0-4 instead of 3-1 (as the odds indicated) has a drastic impact. The White Sox are leading the division but AccuScore is currently giving the Twins the best shot at winning the division at 34.7% because they have done best within the AL Central.
The Tampa Bay Rays were just 1-2 but they actually saw their playoff chances increase 5.6 percent because they were 'supposed' to go just 1-2 in New York and more importantly, the Red Sox were 1-3 at home. The Rays now have a solid 3.5 game lead on Boston and Boston has 8 more road games than home games the rest of the season. The Yankees are projected to ultimately finish with a 5 game lead despite Andy Pettitte going on the DL for at least a month.
The Angels were 3-1 but the Rangers also posted a 3-1 record. The Rangers also had more impressive wins taking 3 of 4 in Boston while Los Angeles was at home vs the Mariners. Despite picking up some ground on Texas in the current simulations, Texas is still a overwhelming favorite in the division with a 94.9% chance. Cliff Lee may not have won either of his first 2 starts, but his addition certainly should help Texas maintain their 4.5 game lead (6 games in the more important loss column).
| TEAM | 12-Jul | 19-Jul | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Minnesota Twins | 34.7% | 50.0% | 15.3% | 48.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 72.2% | 77.8% | 5.6% | 19.2% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| New York Yankees | 95.2% | 96.6% | 1.4% | 77.8% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Oakland Athletics | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 41.0% | 37.9% | -3.1% | 36.8% |
| Texas Rangers | 98.1% | 94.9% | -3.2% | 94.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | 24.5% | 20.5% | -4.0% | 2.9% |
| Detroit Tigers | 31.7% | 15.0% | -16.7% | 14.3% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The San Diego Padres had a strong 3-0 week although their wins were just against Arizona at home. The reason why the Padres picked up so much ground was the Dodgers were 0-4 and Colorado just 1-2. Their futility opened things up for San Francisco as well who picked up +13 percentage points after going 3-1. In our season forecast less than 4 wins separate these 4 teams so ultimately head-to-head match-ups will dictate the division winner. The Dodgers plummeted nearly 30 percent but a great week vs the Giants and D-Backs could help them bounce right back to the top if San Diego does not continue to play great on the road. The Padres are 24-18 on the road this year, but they will have their hands full with Atlanta and even Pittsburgh who is a respectable .500 at home.
The Cincinnati Reds may have fallen 0.5 a game back of the Cardinals, but they actually improved their playoff chances by 12 percent. The Cardinals were 4-0 but actually dipped -1.6 percent. How is this possible? How did the Reds gain so much ground in this scenario? The healthy return of Edinson Volquez (1 ER in 6 IP with 9Ks) bodes well for the rest of the season. The Cardinals took care of business at home vs the Dodgers and should be able to out-last Cincinnati. The Cardinals have a 65.7% chance of winning the division.
The Mets were just 1-3 but they actually saw their playoff chances improve +11 percent. Their losses were not that costly because they were road games against a good team (San Francisco). The main reason why the Mets could gain was the Phillies were just 1-3 and even though they were road games, the Cardinals were actually favored in 3 of the 4 games. The Mets also benefited by the struggles of Wild Card competitors, the Rockies and Dodgers. The Braves further solidified their division lead and now are up to having a 62% chance of winning the NL East despite going just 2-2.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 15 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 12-Jul | 19-Jul | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| San Diego Padres | 38.3% | 57.3% | 19.0% | 41.7% |
| San Francisco Giants | 25.2% | 38.6% | 13.4% | 23.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 42.3% | 54.5% | 12.2% | 42.6% |
| New York Mets | 18.7% | 29.9% | 11.2% | 22.9% |
| Atlanta Braves | 58.8% | 61.8% | 3.0% | 54.7% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.6% | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| Washington Nationals | 1.6% | 0.5% | -1.1% | 0.4% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 67.3% | 65.7% | -1.6% | 56.8% |
| Florida Marlins | 13.2% | 8.8% | -4.4% | 6.5% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 32.2% | 22.2% | -10.0% | 15.4% |
| Colorado Rockies | 34.4% | 22.5% | -11.9% | 11.7% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 67.2% | 37.6% | -29.6% | 23.6% |
