MLB Playoff Probabilities After Week 16
- Tuesday, July 27, 2010 3:44 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Overall it was a pretty quiet week in the American League with the biggest improvement in playoff probability was just +5.7 percent by the Minnesota Twins. The Twins were just 4-3. Their improvement had more to do with the fact that the White Sox were 3-3 and the Tigers were 3-4. The Twins are 1 game behind Chicago. The reason why the Twins have a better chance of winning the division (54.3% vs 31.7% for Chicago) is the White Sox have 5 more road games than home games the rest of the season. The Tigers are falling not only because of their recent poor play but with all their key players hitting the disabled list it will be tough for them to win, especially with their 7 more road games than home games.
The Yankees may need to add a pitcher to repeat as World Series Champs, but their current roster is a virtual lock, 97.7% chance, of making the playoffs. After a 4-2 week they kept up with the Tampa Bay Rays (also 4-2). The big loser in the AL East was the Boston Red Sox who were 3-4 and suffered some tough losses in Oakland and Seattle.
The Angels acquired Dan Haren to try to keep up with Texas who picked up Cliff Lee a few weeks ago. Unfortunately after dropping 3 of 4 in Texas, the Angels have just a 3.6 percent chance of winning the division and a 5.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. Haren is helping the Angels and in full season simulations he helped LA win +4 more games but with just 12 or 13 starts the rest of the season he is only helping LA win 1 more game per simulation vs Jose Saunders.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 16 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 19-Jul | 26-Jul | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Minnesota Twins | 50.0% | 55.7% | 5.7% | 54.3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 4.3% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% |
| New York Yankees | 96.6% | 97.7% | 1.1% | 82.6% |
| Texas Rangers | 94.9% | 95.5% | 0.6% | 95.1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 15.0% | 15.1% | 0.1% | 14.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Athletics | 1.9% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 1.3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 77.8% | 77.3% | -0.5% | 15.4% |
| Boston Red Sox | 20.5% | 17.0% | -3.5% | 1.9% |
| Chicago White Sox | 37.9% | 32.9% | -5.0% | 31.7% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Unlike the American League that had minimal movement in the playoff probabilities there were huge changes in the National League. The San Francisco Giants had a great week going 6-1. It was especially good because these were all road games and 2 of the wins were against the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 4-3 but dropped -5.7 percent because they lost 2 games vs the Giants. The Giants were also helped by the Rockies who were an awful 1-6 and saw their playoff chances drop to just 14.5 percent. The Padres were solid going 4-2 and they are holding off San Francisco for the division win 43.2 to 35.4 percent.
The biggest loser this week was the New York Mets who are once again fading in the second half. After going 1-6 the Mets saw their playoff chances plummet an amazing 23 points to just 6.9 percent. Their week was bad enough that the Braves were able to pick up +11 percent despite going just 3-3. The Phillies were 4-3 and are now in a solid second place in the NL East.
The NL Central has been a two team race most of the season and only 0.7 percent of simulations have a team other than the Cardinals or Reds winning. Saint Louis went 4-3 but picked up +7 percent in the playoff race. The Reds were also 4-3, but dropped over 14 percentage points. The reason why 4-3 could have such a different impact has to do with the schedule. The Reds lost two games in which they were heavy favorites at home. They should have gone 6-1 this week. The Cardinals took care of business at home beating the Phillies 3 out of 4 times and even though they lost 2 of 3 to Chicago, these were road games. The Cardinals did as well as expected while the Reds were 2 games under expectations. Finally with 6 more road games than home games this season for the Reds, St. Louis is the 67 percent favorite to win the division. With the emergence of San Francisco and the Padres continuing to play well the Reds playoff chances, while still strong, are now under 50 percent.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 16 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 19-Jul | 26-Jul | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| San Francisco Giants | 38.6% | 60.9% | 22.3% | 35.4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 61.8% | 73.2% | 11.4% | 69.4% |
| San Diego Padres | 57.3% | 64.9% | 7.6% | 43.2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 65.7% | 72.7% | 7.0% | 67.4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 22.2% | 27.5% | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| Florida Marlins | 8.8% | 6.2% | -2.6% | 4.7% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 37.6% | 31.9% | -5.7% | 15.4% |
| Colorado Rockies | 22.5% | 14.5% | -8.0% | 6.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 54.5% | 40.2% | -14.3% | 31.9% |
| New York Mets | 29.9% | 6.9% | -23.0% | 5.7% |
