MLB Playoff Probabilities After Week 18
- Monday, August 9, 2010 1:42 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AMERICAN LEAGUE
After dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees the Red Sox find themselves with just a 14.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. New York, meanwhile, went back over the 90 percent mark in playoff probability with a nearly 75 percent chance of winning the AL East. The Rays have been strong all year on the road this season, but they dropped 5 in a row costing them 13 percent. The Rays are in a battle with the Twins and White Sox for the Wild Card. Currently less than 0.6 wins per simulation separates the 3 teams in projected win total.
The Twins are AccuScore's slight favorite to win the AL Central at 56.7 percent vs 43.3 percent for Chicago, but the White Sox had a great week. The White Sox were 4-2 (all road games) and by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit they basically eliminated them from the playoff picture. With Tampa Bay and Boston both having bad weeks, the White Sox vaulted near 22 percentage points in the playoff race.
The AL West has been largely settled for a month now. Even though they were just 3-3 the Rangers still hold a 97.6 percent chance to win the division and make the playoffs. The A's were the only AL West team with a winning record this past week (4-2) but they only have a 1.7 percent chance of catching Texas who is projected to win the division by a full 10 games.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 18 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 2-Aug | 9-Aug | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Chicago White Sox | 35.9% | 57.7% | 21.8% | 43.3% |
| New York Yankees | 86.3% | 92.2% | 5.9% | 74.6% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Oakland Athletics | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.9% | 0.8% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 69.6% | 68.5% | -1.1% | 56.7% |
| Texas Rangers | 98.7% | 97.6% | -1.1% | 97.6% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 78.5% | 65.1% | -13.4% | 22.3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 28.8% | 14.3% | -14.5% | 2.8% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Phillies had a tremendous 5-1 week and have now improved their playoff chances by over 30 percentage points over the past 2 weeks. They have closed the gap from 67 to 33 percent to win the division vs Atlanta down to 56 to 43 percent. The Phillies also have the advantage of playing 7 more home games than road games the rest of the season.
The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with a +20 percentage point improvement. They currently hold a 2 game lead over the Cardinals. AccuScore still sees the Cardinals as the favored team to win the division but the difference is minimal with the Cardinals at 52.6 percent and Cincinnati at 47.4 percent.
The only team to drop more than St. Louis (-11.5 percentage points) this past week were the 2-4 Giants who were rolling before struggling on this road trip. The Giants dropped to just a 27 percent chance of winning the division, down from nearly 38 percent the prior week. The Dodgers and Rockies also saw their playoff chances drop this week while the Padres were up slightly, despite going just 3-4. The Padres benefited from the Giants bad week and the whole division suffered because the Phillies and Reds are the front-runners for the Wild Card if they do not win their respective divisions.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 18 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 2-Aug | 9-Aug | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 36.7% | 60.1% | 23.4% | 42.7% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 41.3% | 61.4% | 20.1% | 47.4% |
| San Diego Padres | 70.5% | 72.3% | 1.8% | 60.4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 68.2% | 69.3% | 1.1% | 56.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 21.6% | 19.8% | -1.8% | 10.2% |
| New York Mets | 4.5% | 1.1% | -3.4% | 0.7% |
| Colorado Rockies | 10.3% | 4.8% | -5.5% | 2.4% |
| Florida Marlins | 6.3% | 0.8% | -5.5% | 0.5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 76.1% | 64.6% | -11.5% | 52.6% |
| San Francisco Giants | 64.6% | 45.8% | -18.8% | 27.0% |
