AccuScore On SportsFanLive

By Jonathan Lee

The Niners were the preseason favorites to take the NFC West, but are facing the daunting task of trying to avoid a 0-2 start against the defending Super Bowl champions. Even with the advantage of being at home, winning might be tougher than San Francisco fans would like to admit. 

AccuScore simulations project the Saints to be heavy favorites covering the five-point spread 59 percent of the time, and winning outright almost 72 percent of the time.  On the bright side for the Niners, each of their division counterparts has already lost this week. The Saints are looking to match the surprising Bucs in the NFC South at 2-0.

The play of quarterback Alex Smith will be a critical key for San Francisco. He is projected for 215 passing yards, but just a 73 rating. In the 28 percent of simulations where he leads his team to a victory his TD-INT ratio is 2.3-1 compared to a dismal 0.76-1 in forecasted losses. Running back Frank Gore also averages 44 more rushing yards and nearly twice as many touchdowns in wins as compared to losses. All of this basically means that the Niners offense must perform very well to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints to have a realistic shot at winning.  Brees is projected for nearly 270 yards passing and a 102 passer rating in average simulations.

Both teams actually performed very well defensively in Week 1. San Francisco held Seattle to just 242 total yards, but lost by 25 due to an interception returned for a score. Another interception led directly to another Seahawks touchdown off a short field. If the Saints are able to force two or more turnovers their winning percentage in simulations rises to 81% and their average margin of victory jumps up to 12 points. If Smith were to protect the football and not throw an interception, San Francisco is projected to win 42% of the time and cuts its average deficit to a very manageable 2 points.

One thing to remember is that New Orleans has had extra time to prepare for this game having last played the Vikings on Sept. 9 to kick-off the season. The Saints have beaten San Francisco five times in a row.  Last season in games involving either New Orleans or San Francisco AccuScore correctly picked the game winner 26 out of 35 times.