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The Celtics were on the floor in Game 6 but their balls (and I don't mean basketballs) were left in Boston or fell out of the plane somewhere over the Rocky Mountains. It is kind of amazing to see how psychologically fragile NBA players who make millions of dollars a year really are. When 20,000 people are supportive of their efforts they will give 100 percent for every loose ball, defend with a passion and rebound with a vengeance. When 20,000 people call you names and yell at you, they respond like a child who peed himself after getting bullied in a school yard.

If you use money line odds as an indicator of a team's chances of winning, the Lakers had a 43 percent chance of winning Game 5 in Boston and a 73 percent chance of winning Game 6 at home. That is a 30 percentage point difference! In other sports like football, hockey and baseball, the swing is only 10 to 15 percentage points. With Game 7 in Los Angeles, the odds are clearly with the Lakers to win Game 7.

The Kendrick Perkins injury does have a major impact on the game. The Celtics' interior defense and rebounding were horrible after Perkins got hurt. In Game 7 if he is healthy, the Celtics have close to a 33 percent chance of winning vs. just 27 percent if Perkins is out.

Of course as Games 2 and 3 showed, these teams are good enough to win on each other's home court. The Celtics shot under 35 percent in the first half of Game 6. If the Celtics expect to win Game 7, they need to shoot more than 45 percent from the field and both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce need to hit at least 40 percent of their three-point shots. Besides shooting at least 45 percent from the field, the Celtics need to at least stay even with the Lakers on the boards if they want to pull off the upset. When the Celtics upset the Lakers, the rebounding battle is Boston 43, Los Angeles 42.

When the Lakers are at least +5 on the boards and hold Boston to under 43 percent shooting they win by an average score of Lakers 99, Celtics 88. In simulations that the Lakers win Pau Gasol shoots 54 percent and averages 20 points and 12 rebounds. In simulation losses he shoots under 50 percent from the field. Kobe did not need to score a ton in Game 6 but in Game 7 he does average over 30 points in simulation wins vs. just 26 and sub-40 percent shooting from the field in losses.