AccuScore On SportsFanLive

AccuScore favored the Lakers to win the series at 63 percent after their Game 2 loss because the Celtics won through aberrant occurrences (Ray Allen 8-11 from three point range, Kobe's foul trouble). We expected the Lakers to take at least one game in Boston when things "went back to normal" and that is what happened. We did not expect Allen to shoot as poorly as he did, but the Lakers did win and now they are again solid favorites to win the series.

If the Lakers want to take two or even all three games in Boston (23 percent chance) then they will need to stop shooting so many three-pointers, and instead pound the Celtics inside. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum only had 20 FGAs in Game 3. The Celtics are in trouble if L.A. ever decides to give Gasol 18 to 20 shots a night. For the Celtics to win they need to hit their threes; they hit 37 percent in simulation wins and only 30 percent in simulation losses. They also need to hit the boards much harder than the Lakers (+4 in sim wins, -2 in sim losses).