AccuScore On SportsFanLive

My opinion is obviously heavily influenced by the AccuScore forecast and I'll be periodically pointing out a few NFL Futures picks starting today and leading up to the start of the actual season. My first pick of the season is the New York Jets under 9.5 Wins. AccuScore does think the Jets have a good team and they have a 51 percent chance of making the playoffs (tied for 6^th best in the AFC), but they are averaging 8.7 wins per 10,000 season simulations. The computers say under and there are 4 more reasons why I think the Jets do not live up to the high expectations surrounding the team:

• They really only won eight games last year. When they set these lines odds-makers don't necessarily run a ton of fancy statistical models They take last year's win total and if they think the team is better this year they add a half a win, if they think they're worst they subtract half a win. I know they officially won nine games but I do not include their 'win' over Indianapolis as a real win. To lose this bet they need to win 10 games which would be +2 above last year's 'real' win total. No other team with a winning record last year has a line that is two games more than last year's win total.

• Big Talk Does Not Equal Quality Results: Odds-makers can capitalize on the New York fan, players, and coaches' bravado. Odds-makers don't want to be right about anything. They just want to have 50 percent of action on both sides of the line and make their vig profit. They know that the bluster and big talking that comes from the New York media, fans, and Coach Rex Ryan has led to millions of New York fans to be talking Super Bowl this season. If the same Jets team played in Buffalo the lack of press would result in a line of 8.5 – I guarantee it. But if they put out a line of 8.5 on the Jets there would probably be 70 percent of early action on the Over due to the energized NY fan base. The sports books would rather have 50/50 action and pass on the benefits of having 70 percent of their bettors lose.

• Tough, Tough Schedule: The Jets have a good team, but they have a bear of a schedule. If this year's team played last year's schedule they probably would have a 50 percent chance of winning 10+, but this season, that will be tough. There are two other playoff contenders in the AFC East alone. How many nine-win teams can come from the AFC East when there are really good teams throughout the conference? The Patriots line is also 9.5, the Dolphins are at 8.5. Besides 4 games vs these tough division opponents the Jets also play legit playoff contenders: Baltimore, Minnesota, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver. They only have 3 games (@Detroit, @ Cleveland, Buffalo at home) where they would be more than a six-point favorite. Last season they lost to the Bills at home. The Jets were 1-2 vs. playoff teams if you do not include Weeks 16 and 17 when the Colts and Bengals rested players.

• Sanchez Has a Really Long Way to Go: You cannot expect Mark Sanchez to make a huge leap in Year 2 but even if he does, he may still just be an average QB. Don't let a surprise run to the AFC Championship game and a few clutch plays fool you. Mark Sanchez was a bad QB last season. He had a passer rating of 63 and his TD to INT ratio was 12 to 20. Joe Flacco had a much tougher schedule as a rookie and had a rating of 80. Matt Ryan's rating was 87.7. Both Flacco and Ryan passed for more TDs in Year 2 and even if Sanchez is much better Year 2, the best you can reasonable expect, considering the quality of the defenses and bad weather he will face, is a 16 TD, 16 INT season with a completion percentage of 60. This is not an elite QB. A few breaks and clutch plays can get you a surprise AFC Championship run, but to repeat that type of performance you need to have a great Quarterback and Sanchez has a long way to go.

-- STEPHEN OH