NFL Playoff Preview
- Monday, January 4, 2010 6:10 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.
These simulations obviously cannot include the data that is generated throughout the playoffs. The NY Jets may only have a 2.5 percent chance of winning and an average of a 40 percent chance of beating an NFC opponent in the Super Bowl, but chances are if the Jets were to advance to the playoffs, the data that would be generated throughout a playoff run would result in the Jets having a better than 40 percent chance if they were to actually advance to the Super Bowl.
AFC
In the AFC the first-round playoff games are all very close with the injured Patriots having a 53.7 percent chance of beating the Ravens, and the Bengals having a 52.4 percent chance of beating the Jets. The Colts are solid 63 percent favorites in their Round 2 match-up vs the Ravens (if they upset New England), Bengals or Jets. The Chargers have a tougher second-round match-up with their most likely opponent being the Patriots. That said, the Chargers would be substantial 60+ percent favorites in their second round match-up as well.
The Colts and Chargers’ chances of making the AFC Championship Game is nearly three times as high as the rest of the field because they have the first-round bye and are simulation favorites vs all their Round 2 opponents. The Colts hold a slight 34.8 to 32.9 percent chance over the Chargers in winning the AFC. This edge is the result of the Colts home-field advantage should they meet.
In past years one conference was often the clearly superior conference resulting in the NFC dominating the mid 1980s into the 1990s and the AFC dominating most of the last decade. This year there are a number of teams in both conferences that are legitimate contenders who have all taken turns at the top of various Power Rankings or were pre-season Super Bowl picks. With the exception of the Jets, who are beating the NFC opponent around 40 percent of the time, the rest of the AFC is winning between 47 and 51 percent of Super Bowl simulations.
| AFC | ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | AFC CHAMP | SUPER BOWL |
| Colts | 100.0% | 63.0% | 34.8% | 17.4% |
| Chargers | 100.0% | 61.0% | 32.9% | 16.5% |
| Patriots | 53.7% | 21.5% | 10.5% | 5.1% |
| Bengals | 52.4% | 20.4% | 8.8% | 4.2% |
| Jets | 47.6% | 14.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Ravens | 46.3% | 19.4% | 8.3% | 4.1% |
NFC
In the NFC, the Cowboys are solid 66 percent favorites vs. the Eagles. While many would say it is hard for a team to beat another quality team three times in a season, last year the Steelers beat the Ravens three times, and you cannot discount how much the Cowboys dominated the Eagles in Week 17 despite the Eagles playing for a No. 2 Seed, first-round bye and home-field advantage in the second round. The Cardinals did not put forth a maximum effort in getting throttled by the Packers in Week 17, and the playoff rematch should be much closer, but the Packers are still slight 52 percent road favorites. The Cardinals are slight underdogs because Anquan Boldin is questionable, and if he does play will likely be slowed by injury. They also have to deal with Aaron Rodgers who has rarely thrown interceptions this season while the Packers defense has led the league in forcing turnovers. If the Cardinals passing game is not 100 percent and the Packers continue to play as they have the second half of the season Green Bay should win for the second straight week.
The Saints and Vikings dominated the first 12 weeks of the season and if this Super Bowl forecast had been done then, their chances of winning round 2 would be well over 60 percent. However, the significant improvement from the rest of the NFC playoff field combined with some of the late season struggles, especially by the Saints, results in a far closer second round forecast. Both the Saints and Vikings would still be clear 10+ percentage point favorites in second round.
| NFC | ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | NFC CHAMP | SUPER BOWL |
| Saints | 100.0% | 56.9% | 30.2% | 15.7% |
| Vikings | 100.0% | 55.7% | 29.5% | 15.4% |
| Cowboys | 66.0% | 29.4% | 14.4% | 7.2% |
| Cardinals | 48.0% | 19.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
| Packers | 52.0% | 23.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Eagles | 34.0% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"
Overall, the Saints and Vikings, like the Colts and Chargers have the best chances of meeting in their conference championship games because they have that first round bye. The Colts currently have the best overall chance of winning the Super Bowl. This forecast is statistics based and does not penalize the Colts for their losses in Week 16 and 17 because the players that performed in most of those games are not the ones playing in simulations. The forecast also does not assume that the time off will negatively impact their team chemistry.
The Colts are not necessarily the best team in AccuScore’s simulations. They have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl because of their higher Round 2 probability. They are even money vs. the Saints, Vikings, Cowboys and Packers in Super Bowl simulations on a neutral field. They are slight 51 percent favorites vs the Chargers at home. So the numbers are not necessarily the right indicator of how good each team is, but they do show just how important home-field advantage and a first-round bye are to helping a teams’ chances of winning the Super Bowl.
