Preliminary MLB Win Total Projections
- Tuesday, March 22, 2011 6:59 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
AccuScore is still undergoing our preparations for the Major League Baseball season, but we now have our early win total forecasts for every team. Keep in mind these numbers are preliminary so check back after the weekend for up-to-date information before the start of the season.
| TEAM | LINE | ACC | DIFF |
| Minnesota Twins | 86.0 | 94.5 | 8.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 84.5 | 89.0 | 4.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 84.5 | 88.8 | 4.3 |
| Texas Rangers | 86.5 | 90.4 | 3.9 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 84.0 | 87.5 | 3.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 88.0 | 91.2 | 3.2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 72.5 | 75.4 | 2.9 |
| Detroit Tigers | 83.5 | 86.3 | 2.8 |
| San Diego Padres | 76.0 | 78.6 | 2.6 |
| Chicago White Sox | 85.5 | 86.7 | 1.2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 88.0 | 89.0 | 1.0 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 85.5 | 86.2 | 0.7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 97.0 | 97.6 | 0.6 |
| Boston Red Sox | 95.0 | 95.0 | 0.0 |
| Florida Marlins | 82.0 | 82.0 | 0.0 |
| Washington Nationals | 71.0 | 71.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland Athletics | 83.5 | 83.2 | -0.3 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 85.0 | 84.7 | -0.3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 70.0 | 68.9 | -1.1 |
| Houston Astros | 71.5 | 69.8 | -1.7 |
| New York Yankees | 91.5 | 89.5 | -2.0 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 76.5 | 73.9 | -2.6 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 68.0 | 64.9 | -3.1 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 83.0 | 79.6 | -3.4 |
| Colorado Rockies | 86.0 | 82.2 | -3.8 |
| New York Mets | 77.5 | 73.6 | -3.9 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 76.0 | 70.0 | -6.0 |
| Cleveland Indians | 71.0 | 64.2 | -6.8 |
| Chicago Cubs | 81.5 | 74.2 | -7.3 |
| Kansas City Royals | 69.5 | 62.2 | -7.3 |
Some quick thoughts on the lines looking at the AccuScore projections:
Philadelphia Phillies – 97 Line, 97.6 Projection
The Phillies are the massive favorite in the National League with their win total set at 97. No other NL team has a line set within 8.5 wins of them (the Giants and Braves are second at 88). This is because of the four aces at the top of the rotation. While the starting pitching will be dominant barring injury, there are plenty of worries in the lineup. Chase Utley’s injury status is completely up in the air, and with Domonic Brown also out to start the season there is little depth on the bench. If Ben Francisco struggles in a full-time role, there is nobody else to replace him. Fans should also be concerned about the declines of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez. Given these risk factors, the under is probably a better bet.
Minnesota Twins – 86 Line, 94.5 Projection
The Twins have the biggest difference between their betting line and their projected line at 8.5 wins. I would caution going overboard with this pick because a big part of this projection is based on health for the five starters. There is some leeway there with Kevin Slowey being a very good sixth option that many teams would fight to include in the middle of their rotations, but there are also other question marks. Alexi Casilla will be playing shortstop full-time for the first time, and it remains to be seen how well Tsuyoshi Nishioka adjusts to the majors. Still, this franchise seems to find a way to win games every year and their status as AL Central favorites is well deserved. The Over is clearly within reach, particularly if Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan return to health. Just don’t see the +8.5 difference and bet the farm.
Baltimore Orioles – 76 Line, 70.0 Projection
There is a lot of possible leeway here with Baltimore given the youth and talent in the starting rotation. Most of that talent though appears to be at least a year away from real success especially given the difficulty of the AL East. In the spring every fanbase is optimistic about the season, and the tendency is for the public to lean towards the Over. It’s virtually mathematically impossible for every team in a division to all beat their opening lines, and at this point Baltimore is clearly the fifth team in the AL East. Derek Lee and Vlad Guerrero aren’t the same players as they used to be. I like the Under.
