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Projecting The Civil War For The Roses: Oregon Vs. Oregon State

Wednesday, December 2, 2009 3:41 PM
Written By: AccuScore

With more than 10,000 computer simulations in the books for Thursday's Civil War for the Rose Bowl, AccuScore has delivered a prediction: Ducks 35, Beavers 23.

In games involving Oregon and Oregon State this season, AccuScore has predicted the winner correctly 71 percent of the time, 74 percent in the Pac-10 as a whole. Of course, what matters is what real human beings do on the field so AccuScore has also projected a few different scenarios of what could happen:

First, the baseline prediction:
Oregon is a clear-cut 79 percent favorite winning by an average of 11 points.

OREGON STATE vs OREGON	ORST	OR	SCORE
Baseline Simulation	21%	79%	OR 35, ORST 23

Offensively, Oregon has the edge in both the passing game and rushing game.

PASSING	CMP-ATT	YARDS	PASSTD	INT
Sean Canfield	21-33	169	1.4	0.7
Jeremiah Masoli	16-26	181	1.6	0.4

RUSHING	RUSH	YARDS	YPC	TD
Jacquizz Rodgers	25	101	4.0	0.83
LaMichael James	20	116	5.8	1.01

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
While home field advantage makes a big difference, AccuScore would still favor Oregon in all three scenarios.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE	ORST	OR	SCORE
Baseline Simulation	21%	79%	OR 35, ORST 23
If Oregon State Home Field	35%	65%	OR 32, ORST 27
If Neutral Field	29%	71%	OR 34, ORST 26

WEATHER
Both teams are used to playing in wet conditions, but if the weather is bad for this game (heavy precipitation, windy) we do not think either team would get an edge. Poor weather would only (predictably) serve to help stymie both offenses.

OREGON STATE vs OREGON	ORST	OR	SCORE
Baseline Simulation	21%	79%	OR 35, ORST 23
Wet, Windy Conditions	23%	77%	OR 27, ORST 17

LAMICHAEL JAMES EXPLOSIVE RUNS
In AccuScore simulations an explosive run is defined as any run of at least 8 yards. This distance is meant to approximate a runner getting past the tackle box and/or getting substantial yards after contact. An average running back may have an explosive run 15 percent of the time. In simulations LaMichael James is creating an explosive run an amazing 25 percent of the time on his carries. On those carries James actually averages over 16 yards per run. Stopping these kinds of plays will obviously be key for the Beavers. If Oregon State can limit James and the entire Oregon team to half as many explosive runs then the Oregon average margin of victory goes from 12 to just 4 points.

OREGON STATE vs OREGON	ORST	OR	SCORE
Baseline Simulation	21%	79%	OR 35, ORST 23
Oregon 50% Explosive Runs	38%	62%	OR 27, ORST 23

MASOLI TURNOVERS
In addition to limiting those explosive runs, Oregon State needs to force turnovers. Jeremiah Masoli is averaging just under one turnover per game (interceptions + lost fumbles). However, with each additional Masoli turnover the Ducks chances of victory drop significantly.

If Oregon State forces three or more Ducks turnovers while turning the ball over no more than once themselves then Oregon State is favored in 53 percent of simulations.

OREGON STATE vs OREGON	ORST	OR	SCORE
Baseline (Masoli 0.9 Turnovers)	21%	79%	OR 35, ORST 23
Masoli Zero Turnovers	13%	87%	OR 37, ORST 21
Masoli 2+ Turnovers	33%	67%	OR 33, ORST 26
Masoli 3+ Turnovers	45%	55%	OR 30, ORST 28

OREGON STATE PENALTIES
Obviously, if Oregon State cuts its penalties in half, its chances improve, but it is important to determine what the penalties are. Many holding penalties on runs result in long runs that are brought back due to holding. We will assume that Oregon State will not commit as many penalties, but in the process it will not receive the ‘benefit’ of the hold (i.e. it will not get more explosive running plays because it will not hold). We will assume that the Beavers will commit fewer holds in pass protection (which could result in more sacks), fewer personal fouls, fewer off-sides, fewer pass interference calls, etc.

When you cut penalties in half, but also cut the "benefit" of the penalty as well the impact of Oregon State cutting penalties in half is significant, but not as large as you might think.