Prospect Bonanza - How to Value Strasburg, Stanton, and More
- Wednesday, June 9, 2010 3:08 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
HOW HIGHLY DO YOU VALUE STRASBURG IN FANTASY?
Even by the most optimistic expectations, Stephen Strasburg exceeded them in his scintillating debut Tuesday against the Pirates. The rookie struck out 14 batters in 7 innings mixing in a 100 MPH fastball with a knee-buckling curve, a slider that seems to take a direct left turn right in front of the plate, and a “change-up” that sits in the high 80s and dives away from bats. Yea, Strasburg was well worth the hype.
AccuScore projections are very optimistic about him putting him among such fantasy luminaries as Halladay, Jimenez, Wainwright, and Lincecum for the rest of the season. His projected line is 12 wins, 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and better than a strikeout an inning. Strasburg will only be limited by the Washington offense and management. He will likely be on both pitch and innings counts, but that shouldn’t limit his immense fantasy value until September. Treat Strasburg as a top 10 fantasy talent among starting pitchers.
MIKE STANTON MAKES QUIETEST DEBUT EVER
Florida outfielder Mike Stanton made perhaps the quietest debut for such a top prospect ever due to the Strasmas on Tuesday. Being overshadowed didn’t seem to bother Stanton though as he went 3-for-5 with 2 runs and a strikeout batting 7th for the Marlins. The rookie had been slugging an absurd .726 in the minors with 21 home runs, a rate of 1 every 9 at-bats. Stanton has a massive power and problems with strikeouts, which is what you can expect the rest of the season. Think Adam Dunn (for now). AccuScore’s projection of a .288 average might be optimistic due to his contact issues, but the 15 home runs and 50 RBI are definitely in reach.
PIRATES COMMIT TO YOUTH MOVEMENT
Pittsburgh had already given everyday jobs to Steve Pearce and Neil Walker earlier this season, and now two more youngsters are joining the major league club. Brad Lincoln, while not a Strasburg level prospect obviously, will make his debut Wednesday against the Nationals alongside outfielder Jose Tabata who was acquired from the Yankees.
Lincoln was the 4th overall pick in 2006 and was rated the 4th best Pirates prospect by Baseball America. In his last 10 starts at AAA-Indianapolis he has is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA, and a solid 3.9 K:BB ratio. Tabata has been impressive as well with a .308/.373/.424 line with 25 steals. He’s still just 21 and likely won’t hit for much power, but he should play every day and gives Pittsburgh an athletic outfield along with Andrew McCutchen and Lastings Milledge. This latest wave of call-ups likely marks the end of the Jeff Clement experiment. The C/1B was optioned back down to the minors.
BALTIMORE TRIO OF PITCHERS HAVE ARRIVED
Oriole fans have eagerly awaited the arrival of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta hoping the trio will be the new Big 3 similar to Oakland when they featured Hudson, Zito, and Mulder. Now it looks like all three will finally be together in the major league rotation as Arrieta is expected to make his debut on Thursday against the Yankees. In 73 innings at Triple-A, Arrieta is 6-2 with a 1.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts. The 34 walks he’s issued are a concern. Take a wait and see approach with Arrieta except in AL-only leagues.
Matusz and Tillman made 20 combined starts last season, but Tillman has just rejoined the big club recently. Tillman had one solid start against Toronto, but was shelled against Boston. A tall lanky righty, Tillman is still one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, but you should wait a few more starts to see if he adjusts to this level. He is still just 22 years old. Matusz started the season in the rotation and has just been ok in 12 starts. He has been a bit unlucky though as his ERA is 5.10 but his FIP is 4.06 due to an elevated BAIP. He’s also another candidate to watch for a possible late season surge. The talent is certainly there.
NEW WAVE OF CATCHERS
Buster Posey was called up May 29, and has been playing virtually every day. The odd thing is that he has made only two starts at catcher spending most of his time at first base. He is also reportedly still on track for Super Two status so it’s still a complete mystery why San Francisco kept him in the minors for so long. Either way, Posey is up now and hitting an impressive .444 with a .487 OBP. AccuScore projects him to hit .300 with a .370 OBP the rest of the way. Compare that to Bengie Molina who projects for a sub-.300 OBP and it’s even odder why he isn’t playing more at catcher.
The other top catching prospect this season is Carlos Santana, and he’s still toiling in the minors despite Lou Marson embarrassing himself with the Indians. Marson is batting just .215 in 200 career major league at-bats. Meanwhile Santana continues to rake at Triple-A Columbus sporting a line of .314/.447/.580 with 44 walks against just 38 strikeouts. In reality Santana should be up any day now, but it’s impossible to tell what the Cleveland front office is thinking here. If he’s still available I would definitely stash him on your bench and expect him to be up by the end of this month. There is no reason why he should be improving at the big league level.



