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The Grizzlies were dealt a huge blow Wednesday when it was revealed that forward Rudy Gay would miss at least a month due to a shoulder injury. Gay was in the middle of a career year averaging career bests in every major category except points.

Gay’s more efficient game this season had led Memphis to a 31-26 record heading into the All-Star break, tied with the Jazz for 8th in the West, and just a game behind the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have won 8 of their last 10 games, and a 13-5 record over the last month. The injury to Gay probably knocks Memphis out of serious playoff contention.

Even with the improved overall play, AccuScore had projected the Grizzlies to only average 11.4 wins over the rest of the season even with Gay in the lineup. This is due to a schedule jampacked with playoff teams coming out of the break. Here is the projected impact of this injury:

Memphis is likely to play between 12-14 games minimum without its star forward. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies are forecasted to lose 0.8 more games, and are 9.2 percent less likely to make the playoffs. Immediately coming out of the All-Star break they will face Denver, San Antonio (twice), New Orleans, Dallas, Oklahoma City, New York (twice), and Miami in less than a 20 day span.

Expect Memphis to compensate by playing Sam Young and Tony Allen together in the starting lineup. Another option would be to play Tony Allen at the small forward spot, and reinstate O.J. Mayo, who is coming off a 10-game suspension, back to the starting five. Although Allen and Young have played some of their best basketball in recent games, any combination of those three wing players are unlikely to be able to make up for the loss of Gay.