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ACCUSCORE’S 2010 NBA DRAFT PREVIEW

AccuScore could spend days running billions of simulations about the impact of different rookies on all the different teams to see which players each team should draft. However, we do not need to run these numbers to know that there are really only 5 to 10 rookies a year that actually make a significant statistical impact in their first year (i.e. double digit points and/or 4+ assists and/or 4+ rebounds). Rather than use up all of our super-computer resources for 2 or 3 meaningful findings, we decided to save some a ton of time and focus on a few key player evaluation questions that will actually make a significant impact on the teams that draft these players.

QUESTION 1: John Wall or Evan Turner?
This is not actually much of a debate. The Washington Wizards are going to draft John Wall, and AccuScore supports that as the correct decision. We wanted to evaluate the impact of these players assuming both pan out and perform up to their capabilities. General Managers, scouts, and other NBA statistical analysis services specialize in projecting how players will develop in the NBA. In doing so they are trying to determine which players will develop and perform and which players will fail to realize their potential. Our game-by-game simulation is NOT designed to project a player’s future level of play. It is designed to evaluate how a player would impact a team assuming he performs to a certain pre-determined level.

For this analysis we want to assume that John Wall and Evan Turner are terrific players from the moment they step onto an NBA court. We took data from Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo and other comparable point guards to create our virtual instant All-Star version of John Wall. We took Brandon Roy and other top shooting guards to create a virtual Evan Turner. We also wanted to make sure our virtual Turner rebounded and passed at a better rate than most shooting guards while also struggling from three-point range more than most NBA players at his position.

What is not displayed here is the impact that the players have on team defense and the shooting percentages of his teammates. John Wall is having the bigger impact defensively on the Wizards because he is capable of being an All-League defender with his combination of speed and length from the point guard position. As the lead guard his penetration will help create open perimeter shots while also helping young emerging power forward Andray Blatche get more easy baskets. Turner is a good passer as well, but a lot of assists in college does not necessarily translate to helping an NBA team get better looks and shoot a higher percentage. In college it is often more a reflection of a player dominating the ball.

In our simulations John Wall is lifting the Wizards into the playoffs in 35.6% of simulations and helping them win nearly 11 more games than the current roster would win in 2010-2011. Evan Turner is having a phenomenal year in simulations and would certainly get plenty of Rookie of the Year votes as well, but Wall improves Washington by +5.4% per game more than Turner, and in turn significantly increases the Wizards’ chances at the postseason.