The Value Of Darrelle Revis To The Jets
- Tuesday, August 10, 2010 4:31 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
How much is Darrelle Revis worth to the Jets? To find out, AccuScore simulated New York’s season 10,000 times with and without the star cornerback suiting up for Gang Green.
NEW YORK JETS |
WIN |
LOSS |
DIV |
PLAYOFF |
PA |
With Revis |
8.8 |
7.2 |
36.0% |
51.5% |
16.7 |
Without Revis |
8.1 |
7.9 |
26.2% |
37.8% |
18.0 |
IMPACT |
-0.7 |
0.7 |
-9.8% |
-13.7% |
1.3 |
Obviously losing one of the best defensive players in the NFL would negatively impact any team. For a team like the Jets that considers itself a Super Bowl contender, his loss is huge. Without Revis they 0.7 fewer games, allow 1.3 more points per game, and are nearly 14% less likely to reach the playoffs.
WITH REVIS |
WIN |
LOSS |
DIV |
PLAYOFF |
New England Patriots |
9.1 |
6.9 |
43.2% |
56.7% |
New York Jets |
8.8 |
7.2 |
36.0% |
51.5% |
Miami Dolphins |
7.6 |
8.4 |
16.5% |
26.0% |
Buffalo Bills |
6.1 |
9.9 |
4.3% |
7.7% |
WITHOUT REVIS |
WIN |
LOSS |
DIV |
PLAYOFF |
New England Patriots |
9.1 |
6.9 |
49.3% |
60.3% |
New York Jets |
8.1 |
7.9 |
26.2% |
37.8% |
Miami Dolphins |
7.6 |
8.4 |
19.0% |
28.7% |
Buffalo Bills |
6.1 |
9.9 |
5.5% |
9.0% |
Losing Revis negatively impacts New York, and in turn positively impacts the rest of the AFC East. The Patriots odds of winning the division rise 6.1% while the gap between New York and Miami in the playoff race closes considerably.
NEW YORK JETS |
WITH REVIS |
WITHOUT |
DIFFERENCE |
Baltimore |
50.0% |
43.7% |
-6.3% |
New England |
50.7% |
48.2% |
-2.5% |
@ Miami |
45.1% |
41.5% |
-3.6% |
@ Buffalo |
60.1% |
57.0% |
-3.1% |
Minnesota |
42.2% |
36.9% |
-5.3% |
@ Denver |
58.9% |
56.9% |
-2.0% |
Green Bay |
57.3% |
50.2% |
-7.1% |
@ Detroit |
67.3% |
64.8% |
-2.5% |
@ Cleveland |
66.2% |
61.3% |
-4.9% |
Houston |
66.3% |
62.8% |
-3.5% |
Cincinnati |
50.2% |
46.8% |
-3.4% |
@ New England |
39.0% |
32.7% |
-6.3% |
Miami |
63.6% |
59.1% |
-4.5% |
@ Pittsburgh |
37.4% |
31.3% |
-6.1% |
@ Chicago |
56.3% |
48.3% |
-8.0% |
Buffalo |
68.3% |
70.2% |
+1.9% |
TOTAL WINS |
8.8 |
8.1 |
0.7 |
Looking at the game by game schedule, Revis makes the biggest difference against Baltimore, Green Bay, at New England, at Pittsburgh, and at Chicago. His absence also makes the Jets under 50% to win the first two games meaning a potential 2-0 start could flip to 0-2.
If the Jets were to win every game it is favored in by AccuScore with Revis their record would be a sparkling 11-4-1. Taking that same tact without Revis leaves them just 8-8 and out of the postseason. Needless to say, the Jets need to get their star player in camp and on the field.
