Twins Still Favored To Win Division Without Joe Nathan
- Thursday, March 11, 2010 2:08 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
Twins closer extraordinaire Joe Nathan likely won’t be saving games this season. The righthander has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow, an injury that typically requires Tommy John’s surgery. Minnesota will wait to make a final decision on surgery, but Nathan will probably miss the entire 2010 season.
With a healthy Joe Nathan the Twins would be sizable favorites in the AL Central with a projected record of 90-72 and a 68 percent chance of winning the division. Since 2004, the year he became the full-time close in Minnesota, Nathan has piled up a major-league best 246 saves.
HEALTHY JOE NATHAN
AL CENTRAL |
PLAYOFF |
DIV_WIN |
WINS |
LOSS |
Minnesota Twins |
74.3% |
68.4% |
90.0 |
72.0 |
Chicago White Sox |
27.1% |
19.0% |
82.9 |
79.1 |
Detroit Tigers |
12.8% |
8.7% |
79.7 |
82.3 |
Kansas City Royals |
4.9% |
3.3% |
75.9 |
86.1 |
Cleveland Indians |
0.9% |
0.6% |
70.7 |
91.3 |
With Nathan expected to miss the season, the Twins would be forecasted to take a hit, but not a massive one.
JOE NATHAN OUT
AL CENTRAL |
PLAYOFF |
DIV_WIN |
WINS |
LOSS |
Minnesota Twins |
67.6% |
62.0% |
88.5 |
73.5 |
Chicago White Sox |
29.9% |
22.1% |
83.0 |
79.0 |
Detroit Tigers |
15.1% |
10.8% |
79.9 |
82.1 |
Kansas City Royals |
6.2% |
4.4% |
76.2 |
85.8 |
Cleveland Indians |
1.0% |
0.7% |
70.7 |
91.3 |
IMPACT ON TWINS
AL CENTRAL |
PLAYOFF |
DIV_WIN |
WINS |
LOSS |
w/o Nathan |
67.6% |
62.0% |
88.5 |
73.5 |
w/ Nathan |
74.3% |
68.4% |
90.0 |
72.0 |
DIFFERENCE |
-6.7% |
-6.4% |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
The Twins would still be the favorites in the Central winning the division in 62 percent of simulations. Their playoff odds would also be very solid at nearly 68 percent. The loss of Nathan is forecasted to cost Minnesota between 1-2 wins which makes sense, even with an elite closer. The Twins would need to replace essentially 70 innings, and have some decent in-house options.
We project Jon Rauch to replace Nathan in the 9th inning role, and he is projection to do well. Fantasy Scout gives him a projected 2010 line of 34 saves with an ERA just under 3.7 and a 1.35 WHIP. Those numbers are right in-line with his career averages. Matt Guerrier is also projected to get 6-8 saves. Rauch has some experience closing doing so in Washington in 2008 when he had 17 saves with a 2.98 ERA in 48.1 innings. He performed poorly in his stint in Arizona, but bounced back strongly after getting traded to Minnesota (1.72 ERA in 15.2 innings).
The loss of a pitcher the caliber of Nathan is significant, but bullpens are built on the fly all the time in baseball. The Twins are a solid team with options to close and should still be considered contenders for the postseason.
