Waiting For Brett Favre Worth The Drama
- Tuesday, July 27, 2010 3:47 PM
- Written By: AccuScore
Every year NFL news outlets have to focus on Brett Favre and whether he will return for another year. Even if those of us who are sick of this annual "will he or won't he" story wanted to ignore this story, the fact is, Favre's impact on the Vikings is gigantic and they are AccuScore's pick to win the NFC.
Favre had his best statistical season in 2009 with a completion percentage of 68.4 to go along with 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 interceptions. AccuScore has simulated the entire 2010 season 10,000 times and based on his average simulation we expect Favre to have a very good year, but not quite as good as last season's great aberrant season.
| BRETT FAVRE | CMP% | YARDS | TD | INT |
| Current Forecast | 65.8% | 3905 | 31 | 14 |
With Favre playing this well (a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio) the Vikings are once again the heavy favorite to win the NFC North despite the upgrades that the rest of the division have made in the off-season.
| WITH BRETT FAVRE | WIN | LOSS | DIV | PLAYOFF |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.4 | 4.6 | 73.2% | 91.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | 6.5 | 22.4% | 60.8% |
| Chicago Bears | 7.3 | 8.7 | 4.2% | 18.1% |
| Detroit Lions | 4.7 | 11.3 | 0.2% | 1.0% |
What if Favre Regresses?
However, given his advanced age and his overall career statistics (around 1.5 to 1 TD to INT ratio, 62% completion percentage) it is not unrealistic that Favre could regress this year. AccuScore disregarded his phenomenal 2009 statistics and re-simulated the season with a "regressed Favre."
In this simulation Favre has more than 20 interceptions. [Interestingly, his passing yards is the same because when Favre is not playing as well the Vikings are not playing from ahead as much as they did in the baseline simulation. When a team is playing from ahead they run the ball more and pass less. So Brett Favre can actually have more passing yards the worst he plays.]
| BRETT FAVRE | CMP% | YARDS | TD | INT |
| Regressed Forecast | 64.5% | 3904 | 27 | 23 |
The Vikings win just over 10 games per simulation and their chances of winning the NFC North drops over 20 percentage points.
| W/ REGRESSED FAVRE | WIN | LOSS | DIV | PLAYOFF |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.1 | 5.9 | 51.5% | 74.8% |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.6 | 6.4 | 38.5% | 64.7% |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.4% | 22.6% |
| Detroit Lions | 4.9 | 11.1 | 0.6% | 1.8% |
However, the reason why there is so much fuss about Brett Favre is that even if he is not nearly as good as he was last year with him the Vikings are still the favorite to win the division and are one of 6 teams projected for double digit victories in the league.
If Favre is not at QB and Tarvaris Jackson is the starter the Vikings drop to No. 2 in the division and their playoff chances drop from 91 to 48.5 percent. This is why the Vikings are willing to put up with the drama, slow decision making and all the other distractions – even when he's not great, Favre makes
| TARVARIS JACKSON | CMP% | YARDS | TD | INT |
| Starting for MIN | 57.1% | 3360 | 17 | 13 |
| W/ TAVARIS JACKSON | WIN | LOSS | DIV | PLAYOFF |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.8 | 6.2 | 54.2% | 70.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.7 | 7.3 | 30.0% | 48.5% |
| Chicago Bears | 7.7 | 8.3 | 14.6% | 28.7% |
| Detroit Lions | 5.0 | 11.0 | 1.1% | 2.3% |
