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The latest major free agent to sign in baseball was third basemen Adrian Beltre to the Rangers.  Beltre posted one of his best seasons ever at the plate last season and parlayed that into a six-year $96 million deal.

Beltre’s 2010 line of .321/.365/.553 easily outpaced incumbent third baseman Michael Young’s line, and also provides a sizable boost on defense.  The Rangers should now have one of the best defensive infields in baseball with Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Moreland/Davis.

This acquisition boosts the Rangers over three wins over a full season, and improves both their division and playoffs chances significantly. With Beltre now manning third, Young will move into a super-utility role likely filling in all around the diamond as well as at DH. Texas should have no problem keeping his bat in the lineup, and providing rest for their infield starters throughout the season.

By Jonathan Lee and Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

The word floating around is that LeBron James, on his televised “Decision” Thursday night, will choose to sign with Miami Heat and form a super team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  This type of superstar trio is unprecedented, and would obviously make the future of the NBA very intriguing.

With the Heat having just four players under contract before LeBron (Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Beasley) we had to make assumptions based on average players that could be signed at the minimum to fill out the rest of the roster. The trio signing with an Eastern Conference team allows it rack the victories more easily as the last team with the best record, Cleveland, becomes significantly worse and creates more available “easy” wins.

Full NBA seasons were projected 10,000 times with all the current free agents moves and LeBron in Miami. Here are some interesting numbers for the Heat:

1. The average record is 67-15, best in the NBA
2. Best record in any simulation was 79-3 (1 in 10,000)
3. Worst record in any simulation was 40-42
4. Chance of winning 73+ games is 19.3% (NBA win record)
5. Chance of winning 72+ games is 24.6% (ties Bulls win record)
6. Chance of winning 60+ games is 79.4%

In our simulations when a game is a complete blowout the starters end up playing fewer minutes which limits the statistical output of this trio.  In simulations AccuScore uses player performance stats based on their career numbers so the statistical line for the three stars are comparable to previous years with a slight reduction. All three could post more impressive lines if they went for numbers, but this is unlikely.

1. Lebron James:  27.8 Points, 7.5 Rebounds, 7.7 Assists
2. Dwyane Wade:  27.0 Points, 4.8 Rebounds, 7.0 Assists
3. Chris Bosh:   22.3 Points, 9.6 Rebounds, 1.8 Assists

Chris Bosh took an errant shot to the face from Antawn Jamison on Tuesday night, suffering what amounts to a broken face. Officially Bosh had surgery to repair a displaced nasal fracture, and will be “re-evaluted” in 7-10 days. His regular \ season is over, and more than likely would be out for any playoff series.

With only five games left in the regular season and a one-game lead on the Bulls, AccuScore still projects the Raptors to make the postseason. With Bosh, Toronto’s playoff probability was 81 percent. Now it is 75 percent. Toronto plays Chicago at home on Sunday so that game could ultimately determine who wins the 8th spot.

Even if the Raptors sneak into the postseason, they would have to play LeBron James and the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. With Bosh there was less than a 3 percent chance of taking that opening-round series. Without him the probability drops to just 2 percent, and just a tenth of a percent chance of winning a subsequent round.

Free agency looms this summer for Chris Bosh so Toronto fans may have already seen the last of him in a Raptors uniform.

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.