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AccuScore is still undergoing our preparations for the Major League Baseball season, but we now have our early win total forecasts for every team. Keep in mind these numbers are preliminary so check back after the weekend for up-to-date information before the start of the season.

Some quick thoughts on the lines looking at the AccuScore projections:

Philadelphia Phillies – 97 Line, 97.6 Projection
The Phillies are the massive favorite in the National League with their win total set at 97. No other NL team has a line set within 8.5 wins of them (the Giants and Braves are second at 88). This is because of the four aces at the top of the rotation. While the starting pitching will be dominant barring injury, there are plenty of worries in the lineup. Chase Utley’s injury status is completely up in the air, and with Domonic Brown also out to start the season there is little depth on the bench. If Ben Francisco struggles in a full-time role, there is nobody else to replace him. Fans should also be concerned about the declines of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez. Given these risk factors, the under is probably a better bet.

Minnesota Twins – 86 Line, 94.5 Projection
The Twins have the biggest difference between their betting line and their projected line at 8.5 wins. I would caution going overboard with this pick because a big part of this projection is based on health for the five starters. There is some leeway there with Kevin Slowey being a very good sixth option that many teams would fight to include in the middle of their rotations, but there are also other question marks. Alexi Casilla will be playing shortstop full-time for the first time, and it remains to be seen how well Tsuyoshi Nishioka adjusts to the majors. Still, this franchise seems to find a way to win games every year and their status as AL Central favorites is well deserved. The Over is clearly within reach, particularly if Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan return to health. Just don’t see the +8.5 difference and bet the farm.

Baltimore Orioles – 76 Line, 70.0 Projection
There is a lot of possible leeway here with Baltimore given the youth and talent in the starting rotation. Most of that talent though appears to be at least a year away from real success especially given the difficulty of the AL East. In the spring every fanbase is optimistic about the season, and the tendency is for the public to lean towards the Over. It’s virtually mathematically impossible for every team in a division to all beat their opening lines, and at this point Baltimore is clearly the fifth team in the AL East. Derek Lee and Vlad Guerrero aren’t the same players as they used to be. I like the Under.

The latest major free agent to sign in baseball was third basemen Adrian Beltre to the Rangers.  Beltre posted one of his best seasons ever at the plate last season and parlayed that into a six-year $96 million deal.

Beltre’s 2010 line of .321/.365/.553 easily outpaced incumbent third baseman Michael Young’s line, and also provides a sizable boost on defense.  The Rangers should now have one of the best defensive infields in baseball with Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Moreland/Davis.

This acquisition boosts the Rangers over three wins over a full season, and improves both their division and playoffs chances significantly. With Beltre now manning third, Young will move into a super-utility role likely filling in all around the diamond as well as at DH. Texas should have no problem keeping his bat in the lineup, and providing rest for their infield starters throughout the season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota and Texas have not mathematically clinched playoff spots, but in 10,000 AccuScore simulations there were none where the Twins did not win the AL Central and the Rangers did not win the AL West. The only playoff “race” that is up in the air is Yankees vs. Rays AL East winner. The Yankees are up 0.5 games and in simulations they are finishing one game up on the Rays because in their upcoming four-game series the Yankees have home-field advantage.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Last week Colorado was coming off a huge winning streak, but AccuScore forecasted a statistical correction for Colorado and a 10-9 finish. The Rockies ended up going 3-3 this week and as a result their playoff chances dipped -2.5 percentage points. They did not lose ground in the NL West because San Francisco was just 3-3 and dipped -2.2 points and San Diego was just 3-4 and dropped -15.3 points. The only NL West team that will likely make the playoffs is the division winner. All three teams play series against each other. If one team resoundingly beats the other two, then it is unlikely that these two would get a wild card. If all three beat each other “equally” then again, none would be in a great position to catch Atlanta in the wild card race.

All NL West teams lost ground to Atlanta (4-2 this week) and Philadelphia (a perfect 6-0). The Phillies jumped +10.1 percentage points and are now the heavy favorite to win the NL East at 83.6 percent and a virtual lock at making another playoff run. Atlanta may not win the NL East but the Braves actually jumped +11.8 points (more than Philadelphia) because of their two-game lead in the wild card race. Atlanta is benefiting from the round-robin NL West with San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego all hurting each other.

This week in the Closer Report: Hensley cleaning up for the Marlins, Takahashi, Lyon and Uehara still under-owned, and Kuo stabilizes the Dodger bullpen.

• Brandon Lyon was signed to be the closer, and since assuming the role from Matt Lindstrom he has performed well. His pitching line since August 1: 2.59 ERA, 16 strikeouts, 10 walks, 24.1 innings, 14 saves.  The walks are still higher than you’d like, but he’s been getting the job done. He’s probably the Astros closer for 2011.

• Since being promoted to the closer role, Clay Hensley has allowed just 3 hits in 6.1 innings with 3 saves.  That was on the heels of a great August when he went 2-0 with 12 strikeouts in 13 IP.  Hensley has a 2.42 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts on the season.  Pick up Hensley if you need a strikeouts and saves.  Leo Nunez has been very poor since August (8.03 ERA, 7 walks in 12 IP) so the 9th inning job will likely be an open battle next spring.

• Hisanori Takahashi is still available in 60% of ESPN standard leagues. He already has four saves in September and hasn’t allowed a run in 11 appearances.  What are you waiting for?

• The Dodgers are having a lost season, but at least Hong-Chih Kuo has been consistently dominant.  He has only been scored upon five times this year in 50 outings with a 1.36 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.  His only blown save( in 10 chances) was on 6/4, and even so he got the win. With Jonathan Broxton relegated to middle relief the rest of the year converted catcher Kenley Jansen is the back-up closer. He’s got amazing stuff with 29 strikeouts in just 18.2 innings. His inexperience (he converted to pitching in the middle of last year) is evident in his 11 walks, but he’s only allowed two runs without a home run. It will be very interesting to see what the Dodgers do with Broxton in the offseason and spring training.

• Evan Meek will get some save chances as the season winds down according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. With essentially a timeshare and less than  month’s worth of games remaining this decision effectively kills the value of both Meek and Joel Hanrahan in mixed leagues. Both are under contract for 2011 so the duo will likely battle next spring for the job.

• Being a closer suits Koji Uehara. Since recording his first save August 21 Uehara has pitched 10.1 innings. In that span he’s converted 9 of 10 saves with 11 strikeouts. Subtract a blip on 9/8 against the Yankees when he surrendered 2 runs while getting just 1 out and his ERA is 2.70.  He’s still available in far too many leagues so go get him if you need to make up ground in saves.

• Chris Perez since August 1: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 20 strikeouts, 4 walks, .185 SLG against, 8 saves. Why did the Indians sign Kerry Wood again? (I will continue to answer this question until 2011 starts)

• David Aardsma had a rough June and first half of July, but he’s been pretty much nails since giving up two runs on 7/8. Since then he’s made 20 appearances pitching 19.1 innings with a 0.93 ERA converting 13 of 14 saves. In that span he’s struck out 21 batters with 10 walks, both numbers right in line with his career numbers. While it looked like Aardsma could have been on the way out of the closer job in Seattle midseason, he looks fine going forward to keep his job heading into next season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AccuScore does not see a lot of drama going down the stretch in the American League, at least in terms of who makes the playoffs. The Rays, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins all have at least a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Red Sox were 3-3 this week but after losing two of three in Tampa Bay, their chances dropped in half from 12.6 to 6.4 percent.

The White Sox are a long shot to catch the Twins. While they are just 4.5 games behind, the Twins have the advantage of playing 19 home games vs just 12 on the road. Even if the White Sox get Manny Ramirez he only helps improve their chances of catching Minnesota by around 1 percentage point.

In terms of who wins the AL East, AccuScore is still favoring the Yankees at 57.8 percent over the Tampa Bay Rays at 41.3 percent. The Yankees have a tough schedule but they do have the advantage of playing more of their remaining games at home than on the road.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Unlike the AL, only two NL teams have a better than 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The San Diego Padres are at 95.8 percent despite only having a 2-4 week including dropping 4 in a row and getting swept at home by the Phillies). They still hold a 5 game lead in the division and have the best record in the NL.

The Phillies sweeping the Padres did not have as big an impact as you would expect with Philly only seeing a +1.5 percent increase in playoff probability. The Phillies started by dropping 4 in a row at home vs the Astros which pretty much off-set any positives. By losing 4 at home to the Astros, the Phillies helped Atlanta improve their chances by 0.7 percent despite going just 2-4.

The big loser this week was the St. Louis Cardinals who are now 5 games behind the Reds with just a 15.8 percent chance of winning the division. The Cardinals saw their playoff chances cut in half from 55.5 to just 28 percent after going 2-5. The San Francisco Giants could not capitalize on the Cardinals and Phillies sub-.500 weeks because they were just 3-3 and lost 2 of 3 at home to the Diamondbacks.

This week in the Closer Report: Takahashi, Lyon, Gonzalez worth pick-ups and Jenks solidifies his role through attrition.

• Brandon Lyon has taken over for the injured Matt Lindstrom, and now has 7 saves on the season and has been very solid recently. In his last 19.1 innings Lyon has allowed 5 runs but all 5 came in a single outing against the Braves on 8/11. A couple worries for Lyon would be his 10:10 K:BB ratio in that span, unsustainable .229 BABIP (career .304), and his shaky history.  But any player can be lucky for a short period of time especially in a small sample.  There’s no real reason why Lyon can’t be fine for the rest of the year. An interesting name to watch for Houston in 2011 would be Wilton Lopez who has had a solid rookie season with a 2.61 FIP and 1.1 WAR in 56.1 IP.

• With Francisco Rodriguez out for the year, Hisanori Takahashi has taken over as closer for the Mets. Since 7/28 Takahashi has a 1.62 ERA in 16.2 IP with 19 strikeouts (0 HR allowed). His job is safe, and his performance warrants a pick-up for those needing saves in all formats.

• Juan Gutierrez came off the DL on 8/19 and promptly got a save on 8/21. I’d say he has the lead in this committee situation.

• Honestly I have no idea what Joe Torre is doing day-by-day with this entire roster in Los Angeles not to mention the closers. The good news is that Broxton and Kuo are still both terrific pitchers no matter what the yelling heads say on TV, and both are worth owning in fantasy because of strikeouts and save potential.

• Braves set-up man Takashi Saito is reportedly having trouble with his vision at night, but he is still the top option behind Wagner.

• Both Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz were put on the DL Wednesday.  Bobby Jenks never truly lost his job, but this latest news makes sure he gets the most saves for the White Sox from here on out.  Jenks has actually pitched very well recently only allowing a run in one of his last 11 appearances (11.2 IP with 15 strikeouts and 3 ER) converting 4 of 5 save opportunities. My guess would be Scott Linebrink would back up Jenks for now, but with Ozzie Guillen it wouldn’t surprise me if either Sergio Santos or Chris Sale were used despite their youth and inexperience.

• It’s still unclear who the closer in Baltimore “officially” is.  Since 8/8 when Alfredo Simon recorded his last save Simon has allowed 4 ER (3 HR) with 7 strikeouts in 6.1 IP with a blown save. Mike Gonzalez has allowed just 1 ER in 4.0 IP with 7 strikeouts. Koji Uehara actually notched a save on 8/21 and protected a 4 run lead on 8/19. If I had to own one Baltimore reliever for the rest of the season it would be Gonzalez and then Uehara.

• Chris Perez in August: 8.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 4 saves.  Why did the Indians sign Kerry Wood again?

• Andrew Bailey returned Sunday and pitched a perfect 9th in a loss to Tampa Bay. He had two strikeouts, and is fine going forward. Michael Wuertz was solid as a replacement. In 11.1 IP he had 5 saves and 16 strikeouts with a 3.97 ERA.

Troy Glaus still leads Braves with 70 RBI, but has been an offensive sinkhole since the All-Star break. In 102 at-bats Glaus has a .595 OPS and just 2 home runs. Enter Derrek Lee whom Atlanta acquired Wednesday for three minor league players. Lee had earlier rejected a trade to the Angels, but will now take over as the full-time first basemen with the Braves.

Before the trade, the Braves were projected as near locks to make the playoffs at 91.7% and 3:1 favorites to win the NL East.

Despite Lee having a disappointing year by his standards, he is hitting a robust .313 since the All-Star break with a .939 OPS. He certainly represents an upgrade over Glaus at first.  With only 43 games left in the season not much changes in the projected final standings in terms of wins and losses, but Atlanta improved its chances of a division title by 5.6%.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

A week after jumping more than 20 percentage points, the Chicago White Sox’s playoff chances suffered a severe market correction with a 34 percentage point decline in playoff probability. While a 2-5 week is always going to hurt, this week was especially bad because the White Sox were at home for six games and lost two of three to the Twins. The Twins were 5-1 and saw their playoff chances jump 20 percentage points. The Twins have a better than 88 percent chance of winning the division because they hold a three-game lead and they have six more home games than road games the rest of the season.

The Yankees were just 3-4 and their playoff chances dipped below 90 percent. The Rays were 4-2 and picked up seven percentage points as they are just one game behind. Even though they hold just a one-game lead in the AL East, AccuScore forecasts the Yankees to finish three games up. The Red Sox had a solid bounce-back week but are still a long shot to make the playoffs at just 23 percent.

The Rangers have run away with the AL West holding an 8.5 game lead. The Rangers could very well be the only team over .500 in the division by the end of the season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The San Francisco Giants may have done all the talking before their three-game series with San Diego, but the Padres clearly won that series taking two of three. The Padres went 5-1, beat their main competitor for the division, and the Dodgers and Rockies continued to play mediocre baseball. As a result the Padres led the NL with an 18.5 percentage point increase in playoff probability and everyone’s pre-season pick for last place in the division now have an 84 percent chance of winning the division.
The Braves were a solid 4-2 and hold an 86.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. The loss of Chipper Jones had no negative impact on the team’s playoff chances. The Phillies were also 4-2, but saw their playoff chances slightly dip. The Phillies chances will improve if Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return a week or two sooner than originally expected.

In the Central, the Cardinals are one game back of Cincinnati and the Reds swept the Marlins, but the Cardinals still saw their playoff chances improve from 52 percent to 66 percent. Cincinnati went 3-3, but saw their playoff chances drop 15 points all because the three losses were at home to the Cardinals. The Reds also still have six more road games than home games the rest of the season. On average, AccuScore simulations have St. Louis finishing one game ahead of Cincinnati.

Another sparking acrobatic play Tuesday night turned out horribly wrong for Chipper Jones. Even though he recorded the out in a scoreless tie, Jones suffered a torn ACL that will knock him out for the rest of the season. After bringing up retirement earlier this year you have to wonder whether or not this is the end of his career.

Before the injury, Jones had been on a tear with a triple slash line of .400/.471/.833 in the month of August with 3 home runs. As of Wednesday night Atlanta held a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies and was projected to maintain that lead according to AccuScore projections.

While losing a veteran leader like Jones is a blow, Atlanta has the depth to absorb the loss on the field. Brooks Conrad will most likely fill in at third base for now while Omar Infante could slide in at the corner when Martin Prado returns from the DL. Conrad has hit for some pop with a .808 OPS in 101 at-bats while Infante made the All-Star team and is currently hitting .330. Because of this the forecast for the NL East remains virtually unchanged even without Jones in projections with the Phillies only 0.4% more likely to win the division.

This projection could of course change if the Braves were to suffer another injury, Infante and Conrad do not perform in expanded roles, or if Prado doesn’t return as expected. But the Phillies are also dealing with their own injury issues with a tenuous situation at first with Ryan Howard out and Ross Gload possibly headed to the disabled list himself.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

After dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees the Red Sox find themselves with just a 14.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. New York, meanwhile, went back over the 90 percent mark in playoff probability with a nearly 75 percent chance of winning the AL East. The Rays have been strong all year on the road this season, but they dropped 5 in a row costing them 13 percent. The Rays are in a battle with the Twins and White Sox for the Wild Card. Currently less than 0.6 wins per simulation separates the 3 teams in projected win total.

The Twins are AccuScore's slight favorite to win the AL Central at 56.7 percent vs 43.3 percent for Chicago, but the White Sox had a great week. The White Sox were 4-2 (all road games) and by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit they basically eliminated them from the playoff picture. With Tampa Bay and Boston both having bad weeks, the White Sox vaulted near 22 percentage points in the playoff race.

The AL West has been largely settled for a month now. Even though they were just 3-3 the Rangers still hold a 97.6 percent chance to win the division and make the playoffs. The A's were the only AL West team with a winning record this past week (4-2) but they only have a 1.7 percent chance of catching Texas who is projected to win the division by a full 10 games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Phillies had a tremendous 5-1 week and have now improved their playoff chances by over 30 percentage points over the past 2 weeks. They have closed the gap from 67 to 33 percent to win the division vs Atlanta down to 56 to 43 percent. The Phillies also have the advantage of playing 7 more home games than road games the rest of the season.

The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with a +20 percentage point improvement. They currently hold a 2 game lead over the Cardinals. AccuScore still sees the Cardinals as the favored team to win the division but the difference is minimal with the Cardinals at 52.6 percent and Cincinnati at 47.4 percent.

The only team to drop more than St. Louis (-11.5 percentage points) this past week were the 2-4 Giants who were rolling before struggling on this road trip. The Giants dropped to just a 27 percent chance of winning the division, down from nearly 38 percent the prior week. The Dodgers and Rockies also saw their playoff chances drop this week while the Padres were up slightly, despite going just 3-4. The Padres benefited from the Giants bad week and the whole division suffered because the Phillies and Reds are the front-runners for the Wild Card if they do not win their respective divisions.

The next top prospect has been called up, and before you rush out to grab him in your fantasy leagues, take a moment to examine Chris Carter.  The Oakland A’s are completely out of the race with just a 1.9% chance at the playoffs according to AccuScore’s latest numbers.  And that is up from just 0.5% just last week.  Carter will fill in at 1B and OF, and management has said that when he comes up he will be up for good.  With the variety of injuries currently plaguing the A’s, playing time will probably be plentiful.  Success however might be in short supply.

Carter has hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 424 at-bats at Triple-A Sacramento in the offensively oriented PCL.  He started the season off very slowly, but has picked it up considerably since the All-Star break hitting .362 with a 1.151 OPS and 8 HR in 25 games. The downside though is clear: 124 strikeouts, a rate of nearly 30%. The power is legitimate, but he will be playing in a poor hitter’s environment in Oakland as well as Anaheim and Seattle.

The best comparable out there is probably Florida’s Mike Stanton, another prospect with huge power and problems making contact.  Stanton has a K-rate of 36% while hitting the ball a long way when he does connect (10 HR).  Expect much of the same from Carter which makes him barely on the fringe in standard mixed leagues and an AL-only play.

The Padres have acquired Miguel Tejada from the Orioles. There are multiple ways San Diego could elect to use him, and offensively he represents a minor upgrade for the NL West leaders.

In simulations Tejada improves his new team by about a third of a win. The question will be where Bud Black chooses to play the aging infielder. Everth Cabrera, after a solid 2009, has been brutal this year with a triple-slash line of .201/.270/.278. Tejada, while no longer a star, is batting .269/.308/.362 and would represent an improvement. 

The problem begins with the simple fact that Tejada can no longer play passable defense at shortstop and UZR shows that he has been well below average the past two seasons at third. Playing Tejada at 3B would certainly be preferable to short, but he would then force Chase Headley to the outfield.

In short, Tejada represents a small upgrade at the plate, but any gains made could likely be given back due to his weak glove.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Overall it was a pretty quiet week in the American League with the biggest improvement in playoff probability was just +5.7 percent by the Minnesota Twins. The Twins were just 4-3. Their improvement had more to do with the fact that the White Sox were 3-3 and the Tigers were 3-4. The Twins are 1 game behind Chicago. The reason why the Twins have a better chance of winning the division (54.3% vs 31.7% for Chicago) is the White Sox have 5 more road games than home games the rest of the season. The Tigers are falling not only because of their recent poor play but with all their key players hitting the disabled list it will be tough for them to win, especially with their 7 more road games than home games.

The Yankees may need to add a pitcher to repeat as World Series Champs, but their current roster is a virtual lock, 97.7% chance, of making the playoffs. After a 4-2 week they kept up with the Tampa Bay Rays (also 4-2). The big loser in the AL East was the Boston Red Sox who were 3-4 and suffered some tough losses in Oakland and Seattle.

The Angels acquired Dan Haren to try to keep up with Texas who picked up Cliff Lee a few weeks ago. Unfortunately after dropping 3 of 4 in Texas, the Angels have just a 3.6 percent chance of winning the division and a 5.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. Haren is helping the Angels and in full season simulations he helped LA win +4 more games but with just 12 or 13 starts the rest of the season he is only helping LA win 1 more game per simulation vs Jose Saunders.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Unlike the American League that had minimal movement in the playoff probabilities there were huge changes in the National League. The San Francisco Giants had a great week going 6-1. It was especially good because these were all road games and 2 of the wins were against the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 4-3 but dropped -5.7 percent because they lost 2 games vs the Giants. The Giants were also helped by the Rockies who were an awful 1-6 and saw their playoff chances drop to just 14.5 percent. The Padres were solid going 4-2 and they are holding off San Francisco for the division win 43.2 to 35.4 percent.

The biggest loser this week was the New York Mets who are once again fading in the second half. After going 1-6 the Mets saw their playoff chances plummet an amazing 23 points to just 6.9 percent. Their week was bad enough that the Braves were able to pick up +11 percent despite going just 3-3. The Phillies were 4-3 and are now in a solid second place in the NL East.

The NL Central has been a two team race most of the season and only 0.7 percent of simulations have a team other than the Cardinals or Reds winning. Saint Louis went 4-3 but picked up +7 percent in the playoff race. The Reds were also 4-3, but dropped over 14 percentage points. The reason why 4-3 could have such a different impact has to do with the schedule. The Reds lost two games in which they were heavy favorites at home. They should have gone 6-1 this week. The Cardinals took care of business at home beating the Phillies 3 out of 4 times and even though they lost 2 of 3 to Chicago, these were road games. The Cardinals did as well as expected while the Reds were 2 games under expectations. Finally with 6 more road games than home games this season for the Reds, St. Louis is the 67 percent favorite to win the division. With the emergence of San Francisco and the Padres continuing to play well the Reds playoff chances, while still strong, are now under 50 percent.

This week in the Closer Report: talking trade targets and both Bobby Jenks and Kerry Wood get votes of confidence from their managers.

• The most likely NL closers to be traded?  I’ll go with Matt Capps from Washington and Octavio Dotel with Pittsburgh. Both players would probably be sent to teams with established closers, and in both cases both guys would be droppable in all but the deepest formats.

In Washington I think the vacated closer job would go to Drew Storen. He was drafted as the future closer, and aside from some control issues (4.4 BB/9) he’s been solid in his rookie season. Giving the job to Tyler Clippard would seem counterproductive given their relative positions in the franchise. Clippard also has pitched very poorly over the past month allowing 16 runs in his last 13.2 IP.

Pittsburgh has two candidates for the job: Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan. While Meek currently has an ERA more than 2 runs better than Hanrahan (1.30 to 3.59) their FIPs (removing fielding from the equation) are nearly identical (2.91 to 2.76) with Hanrahan actually coming out slightly better. Hanrahan also has much better strikeout stuff sitting down 12.45 batters per 9 compared to just under 8 for Meek.  Hanrahan also has the all important “experience” with 14 career saves compared to just 1 for Meek. Even though Meek was inexplicably an All-Star this year (over deserving teammate and outfielder Andrew McCutchen) I believe Hanrahan is the better choice to take over the Pittsburgh closer role should Dotel be moved this week.

• Arizona interim manager Kirk Gibson is now trying to trust his bullpen more, and in turn appears to be using Juan Gutierrez as his de facto closer even though he has not named him officially. Gutierrez has logged the last two saves for the D-Backs, and he’s the one guy I would consider owning in a mixed league. I wouldn’t trust him however in a 10-team league, and would prefer to stay away from this situation completely.

• There doesn’t appear to be a clear trade possibility among AL closers because of Kerry Wood’s injury. Players more likely to move are middle relievers like Scott Downs or Jason Frasor from Toronto or Kyle Farnsworth from Kansas City. Any reliever that moves to the Yankees immediately loses almost all value because Mariano Rivera is the only true “lock” in the majors.

• Kerry Wood’s injury more than likely precludes him being moved at the trade deadline, and Manny Acta says he will keep the closer job when he returns from injury.  That obviously isn’t good news for Chris Perez who has performed well in a temporary role. Wood of course is still an injury risk going forward, but Perez takes a value hit for the rest of the year.  Wood is 8-for-11 in save situations and Perez is 9-for-12 this season.

• Despite rumors to the contrary Bobby Jenks never lost his closer job according to White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. "We're a better ballclub if Bobby is our closer because that makes a lot of things easier for us,” said Guillen.  It certainly sounds like Jenks will be afforded every opportunity to keep pitching in the 9th, but if he continues to struggle J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton would both be in the mix for saves. Thornton already has five saves in seven opportunities this year.

• Baltimore still has not officially gone back to Mike Gonzalez as its closer. The last save for the team though was last Friday and completed by Alfredo Simon.  Gonzo has thrown just 1.2 innings since returning from the DL, and the team probably wants him to keep him in a set-up role awhile longer. Given the fragile state of Gonzalez, I would say Simon still has value the rest of the year. I’d keep Simon over other AL set-up men like Chris Perez, Daniel Bard, and Brandon League (but not Matt Thornton). 

• Joba Chamberlain has lost the exclusive set-up role to Mo Rivera. What that means if Rivera were to ever get hurt or be unavailable to close is unclear. Both Nate Robertson and Boone Logan will be part of the mix in the 8th inning now, and it would be hard to imagine the Yankees trusting Joba to close if they don’t trust him in the 8th. I don’t think this increases the value of either Robertson or Logan.  What it does mean is that the Yankees are probably trying to find some bullpen help via trade.  A guy like Scott Downs, if he were to be acquired would probably become the set-up man/back-up closer for the Yanks.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The Twins 9th inning comeback against division leader Chicago had a major playoff impact. The win helped the Twins improve their playoff chances by over 15 percent as they not only beat Chicago 3 out of 4 but also benefited from Detroit's 0-4 week. If the Twins lost on Sunday their playoff chances would only have been 36.7%, instead of 50%. Not all wins are created equal. The Tigers 0-4 record was especially bad because they came against Cleveland at home. These are about as close to 4 "sure wins" as you can get and to go 0-4 instead of 3-1 (as the odds indicated) has a drastic impact. The White Sox are leading the division but AccuScore is currently giving the Twins the best shot at winning the division at 34.7% because they have done best within the AL Central.

The Tampa Bay Rays were just 1-2 but they actually saw their playoff chances increase 5.6 percent because they were 'supposed' to go just 1-2 in New York and more importantly, the Red Sox were 1-3 at home. The Rays now have a solid 3.5 game lead on Boston and Boston has 8 more road games than home games the rest of the season. The Yankees are projected to ultimately finish with a 5 game lead despite Andy Pettitte going on the DL for at least a month.

The Angels were 3-1 but the Rangers also posted a 3-1 record. The Rangers also had more impressive wins taking 3 of 4 in Boston while Los Angeles was at home vs the Mariners. Despite picking up some ground on Texas in the current simulations, Texas is still a overwhelming favorite in the division with a 94.9% chance. Cliff Lee may not have won either of his first 2 starts, but his addition certainly should help Texas maintain their 4.5 game lead (6 games in the more important loss column).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The San Diego Padres had a strong 3-0 week although their wins were just against Arizona at home. The reason why the Padres picked up so much ground was the Dodgers were 0-4 and Colorado just 1-2. Their futility opened things up for San Francisco as well who picked up +13 percentage points after going 3-1. In our season forecast less than 4 wins separate these 4 teams so ultimately head-to-head match-ups will dictate the division winner. The Dodgers plummeted nearly 30 percent but a great week vs the Giants and D-Backs could help them bounce right back to the top if San Diego does not continue to play great on the road. The Padres are 24-18 on the road this year, but they will have their hands full with Atlanta and even Pittsburgh who is a respectable .500 at home.

The Cincinnati Reds may have fallen 0.5 a game back of the Cardinals, but they actually improved their playoff chances by 12 percent. The Cardinals were 4-0 but actually dipped -1.6 percent. How is this possible? How did the Reds gain so much ground in this scenario? The healthy return of Edinson Volquez (1 ER in 6 IP with 9Ks) bodes well for the rest of the season. The Cardinals took care of business at home vs the Dodgers and should be able to out-last Cincinnati. The Cardinals have a 65.7% chance of winning the division.

The Mets were just 1-3 but they actually saw their playoff chances improve +11 percent. Their losses were not that costly because they were road games against a good team (San Francisco). The main reason why the Mets could gain was the Phillies were just 1-3 and even though they were road games, the Cardinals were actually favored in 3 of the 4 games. The Mets also benefited by the struggles of Wild Card competitors, the Rockies and Dodgers. The Braves further solidified their division lead and now are up to having a 62% chance of winning the NL East despite going just 2-2.