AccuScore On SportsFanLive

In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl heading into championship Sunday.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast compared to the current betting lines.  There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two.  The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win.  The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting.  If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

The Chicago Bears were heavy 82 percent favorites to beat Seattle, and as a result last week they led the playoff teams in positive Diff at +4.3 percentage points.  Despite their impressive win they are now winning the Super Bowl just 14.3 percent of the time, which is less than the Odds would indicate.  This is due to the fact that Green Bay has been so impressive and is actually favored on the road against Chicago.  The Packers are winning the Super Bowl at the highest probability, 34.5 percent, but even at this rate they are not winning as much as the Vegas odds indicate (35.5 percent).

The Steelers may have lost to the Jets at home in the regular season, but as the Jets showed against the Patriots, regular season does not impact playoff performance.  Pittsburgh will have safety Troy Polamalu this time around, and as a result the Steelers are given a 32.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.  The Jets are also given a higher chance by AccuScore than the Vegas odds indicate.

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.

AFC

The AFC is filled with disappointing teams and two are from the NFC North – Pittsburgh and Baltimore. By losing at home to the Raiders as the heaviest favorite of the week, the Steelers saw their playoff chances drop more than 23 percentage points from over 62 to just 39 percent. The Steelers are still favored in their remaining four games and as the AFC Wild Card contender with the best chance of winning their final four games the Steelers still have the best chance of getting the sixth playoff spot. Baltimore lost at Green Bay and while this loss was not unexpected it did drop the Ravens' chances below 30 percent. The Steelers-Ravens Week 16 game is shaping up to be THE crucial match-up of the season. Cincinnati is close to being a lock to win the division and make the playoffs at over 98 percent.

Jacksonville currently has the sixth playoff spot, but AccuScore does not give it a great chance of holding on to that spot because the Jaguars have two tough games (Colts at home, @ New England) and they have another challenge in Week 14 against Miami. The Jags are only averaging 1.7 wins in their remaining four and if they finish 1-3, they will likely not hold on to the playoff spot. Tennessee’s run to the playoffs is likely over after its loss to the Colts and now the Titans only have a 9 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans are virtually done at just 2 percent.

The Broncos are solidifying their No. 5 spot with an 18 percentage point increase. They still have a 25 percent chance of catching the Chargers, but with road games against the Colts and Eagles it will be tough for them to go better than 2-2 the rest of the way. San Diego is also headed for a likely 2-2 finish (it is averaging 2.5 wins in their final four) and another AFC West win.

The Patriots only have a one-game lead over Miami and the Jets, but they still are overwhelming 89 percent favorites to win the division. They are heavily favored in their next 3 games (Carolina at home, @ Buffalo, Jaguars at home) and have a high chance of finishing 3-1. The Jets have tough games vs. the Colts and Bengals (assuming they both are playing their starters), and Atlanta could be tough if Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are back. A 2-2 record for the Jets is the most likely scenario. The Dolphins also look to finish 2-2, but have a better chance of winning the division because they beat the Jets twice.

NFC

The Packers are hot and their playoff chances are now an extremely solid 86 percent with virtually all of that coming as the Wild Card. The Vikings may be a little concerned over how they got dominated by Arizona, but they are not concerned about holding on to a playoff spot with a 99.9 percent chance of holding on. The Bears are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they might as well be with less than 1 percent chance.

The Giants re-established themselves as a potential division winner and beating the Cowboys improved their chances of making the playoffs to 51 percent. They are still third in the NFC East so obviously the winner of the Eagles-Giants game will see a major boost in their playoff chances. Both of these teams will also obviously benefit from the Cowboys losing the Chargers. AccuScore gives San Diego a high 44 percent chance of upsetting Dallas. Dallas then has games at New Orleans and Washington and home vs. the Eagles. The Cowboys still have the best chance of winning the division by virtue of having a one-game lead on the Giants and by beating the Eagles in their earlier match-up, but they have the toughest schedule. The Giants may be third in the division but they have the easiest remaining schedule with a Week 16 vs. Carolina at home and a Week 17 at Minnesota, which could be a game where the Vikings rest their starters at least for the second half.

The Saints have clinched the NFC South and have a 35 percent chance of finishing 16-0. With the Falcons at 6-6 and their two best players injured, their chances are now just 3.8 percent. Tampa Bay and Carolina are also virtually, if not definitely, eliminated from the playoff picture. The NFC West has also become a one-team race with Arizona having a 99.4 percent chance of winning the division. With games against the Lions and Rams they are virtually assured of at least a 2-2 record, which is good enough to keep the division lead regardless of whether they lose to the 49ers.

AFC

The AFC North playoff contenders --- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore --- all lost in tough fashion and this division gave a gift to other AFC contenders. The Bengals and Steelers saw their playoff chances drop 7 and 10 percentage points, respectively. The Steelers lost the most because they suffered the biggest upset of the week. The Ravens may have only dropped 0.7 percent, but they were the big losers in the week because a win over the Colts combined with the Bengals and Steelers losses would have put them in excellent Wild Card position. Now they have to minimally beat the Steelers twice to have any chance.

The Jaguars are not perceived to be a serious playoff threat because of some disastrous losses this year. That said, they are still a solid 6-4, and with the AFC North failures they saw their playoff chances jump the most this week in the AFC going up 14 percentage points. The Jaguars have 3 remaining home games and 1 ‘easy’ road game at Cleveland. They will likely need to beat the Texans, Dolphins and Colts at home in Week 13, 14 and 15 to make the playoffs. The Texans suffered a very costly loss to the Titans at home. The loss slashed their playoff chances from 19 to a shade under 11 percent. Finally, the Titans are still given just a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs they will likely need to win their remaining games (10 overall) to even have a chance. With road games vs. the Colts and tough home games vs. the Dolphins and Chargers, it will be hard to go 6-0 the rest of the season.

Miami was AccuScore’s pick for second in the AFC East in the pre-season and the Dolphins showed that they can still win without Ronnie Brown last week. A solid road win that verified they are a solid running and defensive team has helped them improve to a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins are projected to finish 3-3 the rest of the season, which would not be good enough. To make the playoffs they will need to not only win the games in which they are favored, but they also need to beat the two of these three matchups: Jaguars in Jacksonville, Houston at home and the Steelers at home.

While the Chargers are now heavy 87 percent favorites to win the AFC West by beating the Broncos in Denver so convincingly, the Broncos still have a solid 36.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is down 14 percentage points from a week ago, but it is still good enough for 6^th in the AFC. If the Broncos take care of business in their ‘easy’ division games (@KC, OAK, home vs. KC), they may only need to win one of their games vs the Giants, Colts and Eagles to make the playoffs. The key is can they keep it together and re-focus in time to get an upset win at home vs. the Giants in Week 12.

NFC

The Giants won in OT over the Falcons, and this win was huge. It improved their playoff chances by over 15 percentage points because they beat a primary Wild Card competitor. The Eagles also saw solid improvement this week because they won on the road. Even though they were favored, they were not heavy favorites and winning close games is the difference between a 9-7 non-playoff team and a 10-win playoff team. The Cowboys improved by 6 percentage points even though they were unimpressive in their win because potential Wild Card threats (Atlanta, San Francisco, Carolina and Chicago) all lost.

The Cardinals were once again the only NFC West team to win this week and they now have a commanding three-game lead in the division. It looks like the Week 1 home loss to San Francisco will not cost them anything even if they lose the rematch as well. The Cardinals improved from a 97 percent chance of hanging on to the division lead to more than 98 percent. It will be important that Kurt Warner is healthy as their chances per game drop between 15 and 20 percentage points depending on if Leinart or Warner is starting.

The Packers have put together a few quality wins, but their playoff chances were relatively unchanged this week because the Giants beat Atlanta and the Eagles beat Chicago. The three primary Wild Card contender are the two NFC East teams and the Packers. Even though the Packers have the same record as the Giants and Eagles, their remaining schedule is tougher with road games at Chicago, at Pittsburgh and home vs. Baltimore. The Packers need to hope the Cardinals have nothing to play for in Week 17. The Packers are winning 42 percent of Week 17 simulations if Arizona is playing hard, but if Arizona rests starters, the Packers are a 60 percent+ favorite and their playoff chances match the Eagles and Giants.

In the NFC South the Saints have run away with the division, and even though they have not mathematically clinched a playoff spot, they are making the playoffs in every single one of the 10,000 season simulations. Atlanta saw its chances drop by a full 18 percentage points. The Falcons need to go at least 5-1 to have a legit shot at the playoffs, and with tough games vs the Eagles, Saints and Jets on their schedule it will be tough to only lose once. The Falcons chances will significantly improve in Week 13 if they beat the Eagles at home.