AccuScore On SportsFanLive

In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl heading into championship Sunday.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast compared to the current betting lines.  There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two.  The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win.  The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting.  If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

The Chicago Bears were heavy 82 percent favorites to beat Seattle, and as a result last week they led the playoff teams in positive Diff at +4.3 percentage points.  Despite their impressive win they are now winning the Super Bowl just 14.3 percent of the time, which is less than the Odds would indicate.  This is due to the fact that Green Bay has been so impressive and is actually favored on the road against Chicago.  The Packers are winning the Super Bowl at the highest probability, 34.5 percent, but even at this rate they are not winning as much as the Vegas odds indicate (35.5 percent).

The Steelers may have lost to the Jets at home in the regular season, but as the Jets showed against the Patriots, regular season does not impact playoff performance.  Pittsburgh will have safety Troy Polamalu this time around, and as a result the Steelers are given a 32.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.  The Jets are also given a higher chance by AccuScore than the Vegas odds indicate.

In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl after the Wild Card round. Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge a vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

When comparing AccuScore to the Odds% (No Vig) you see the Difference (Diff). The Jets and Ravens had impressive wild card road wins, but with road games against the Patriots and Steelers respectively it is still a pretty long shot for them even though they may be two of the best four teams in the league.

The Seahawks beat the Saints, but they are still given less than a one percent chance of shocking the world with a Super Bowl win. The Bears are benefiting by getting Seattle at home which is why their chances of winning the Super Bowl are higher than the odds would indicate. The Bears may have the most value compared to the odds, but they too are still a long shot. Atlanta definitely got the short end of the stick having to face Green Bay (6 seed) rather than Seattle (4 seed).

Using 10,000 simulations, AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl. Not surprisingly the New England Patriots lead the league with a 31.6 percent chance of winning. This is nearly 2.5 times as high as the number two team which is Pittsburgh. The home field advantage that New England would have in a match-up with the Steelers is the key to the difference.

The Falcons lead the NFC with a 12.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Again, their home field advantage combined with a first round bye helps them lead the conference. The Saints, despite having to play a road game to start the playoffs, are heavily favored winning nearly 80 percent of simulations at Seattle. Even though the Saints are seeded fifth, their advantage over the Seahawks puts them in the second favored position in the NFC.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas oddsmakers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (no vig).

When comparing AccuScore to Odds% (no vig) you see the Difference (Diff). There are minimal differences indicating AccuScore does not have any really strong value betting recommendation in these playoffs. The Bears have the highest value based on a +1.1 percentage point difference, but at 9.1 percent overall they are still a long-shot. Laying money on the Seahawks is like playing the lottery.

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.

The Ravens made the AFC Championship Game in 2008 and won one playoff game in 2009 without a true #1 Wide Receiver.  WR Derrick Mason is a solid WR, but at 36 years old, the 5’10” Mason is not in Boldin’s class.  While Mason deserves credit for having 73 catches, 1028 yards and 7 TDs in 2009, one could argue that this shows just how good Ray Rice and Joe Flacco can be.  They are good enough to help Mason nearly make the Pro Bowl despite his obvious limitations.

To evaluate Anquan Boldin’s value we went back to the 2009 Season and “re-simulated” the entire season.  The Ravens were 9-7 in 2009, but in our re-simulation they averaged 9.9 wins, made the playoffs nearly 70% of the time and won the AFC North a shade over 40% of the time.  When we added Anquan Boldin to the team and assumed Mason (a free agent) would become the #2, and the newly acquired Donte’ Stallworth #3 WRs we found that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs increased to over 76%.

If Boldin stays healthy he improves the Ravens chances of making the playoffs by over +6 percentage points.  On a per game basis he helps the Ravens average 1.4 more points and provides a +3.1 percentage point impact per game.  Just how valuable is +3.1%?  It translates to around a +2 point difference in average margin of victory.  It takes the Ravens from being a slight underdog to teams like the Colts at home, to being a slight favorite vs the Colts at home.  In other words, it could be exactly what the team needs to get over the hump in the AFC and make it to the 2011 Super Bowl.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations won 71 percent of the time (182-74 regular season, 6-4 in playoffs) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of spreads and totals check out AccuScore's Winner's Edge which has gone an impressive 14-5, 73.7 percent in the playoffs.

COLTS FAVORED

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs. 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees.

WHICH SAINTS PASS DEFENSE WILL SHOW UP?

The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100 percent and the worst at 0 percent. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90 percent. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom third in the league at 31 percent. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning.

COLTS RUN DEFENSE IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE STATS INDICATE

The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56 percent - slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for less than 100 rushing yards, the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times.

COLTS ARE FAVORED IN A SHOOTOUT THANKS TO TURNOVER MARGIN

If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

These simulations obviously cannot include the data that is generated throughout the playoffs. The NY Jets may only have a 2.5 percent chance of winning and an average of a 40 percent chance of beating an NFC opponent in the Super Bowl, but chances are if the Jets were to advance to the playoffs, the data that would be generated throughout a playoff run would result in the Jets having a better than 40 percent chance if they were to actually advance to the Super Bowl.

AFC

In the AFC the first-round playoff games are all very close with the injured Patriots having a 53.7 percent chance of beating the Ravens, and the Bengals having a 52.4 percent chance of beating the Jets. The Colts are solid 63 percent favorites in their Round 2 match-up vs the Ravens (if they upset New England), Bengals or Jets. The Chargers have a tougher second-round match-up with their most likely opponent being the Patriots. That said, the Chargers would be substantial 60+ percent favorites in their second round match-up as well.

The Colts and Chargers’ chances of making the AFC Championship Game is nearly three times as high as the rest of the field because they have the first-round bye and are simulation favorites vs all their Round 2 opponents. The Colts hold a slight 34.8 to 32.9 percent chance over the Chargers in winning the AFC. This edge is the result of the Colts home-field advantage should they meet.

In past years one conference was often the clearly superior conference resulting in the NFC dominating the mid 1980s into the 1990s and the AFC dominating most of the last decade. This year there are a number of teams in both conferences that are legitimate contenders who have all taken turns at the top of various Power Rankings or were pre-season Super Bowl picks. With the exception of the Jets, who are beating the NFC opponent around 40 percent of the time, the rest of the AFC is winning between 47 and 51 percent of Super Bowl simulations.

NFC

In the NFC, the Cowboys are solid 66 percent favorites vs. the Eagles. While many would say it is hard for a team to beat another quality team three times in a season, last year the Steelers beat the Ravens three times, and you cannot discount how much the Cowboys dominated the Eagles in Week 17 despite the Eagles playing for a No. 2 Seed, first-round bye and home-field advantage in the second round. The Cardinals did not put forth a maximum effort in getting throttled by the Packers in Week 17, and the playoff rematch should be much closer, but the Packers are still slight 52 percent road favorites. The Cardinals are slight underdogs because Anquan Boldin is questionable, and if he does play will likely be slowed by injury. They also have to deal with Aaron Rodgers who has rarely thrown interceptions this season while the Packers defense has led the league in forcing turnovers. If the Cardinals passing game is not 100 percent and the Packers continue to play as they have the second half of the season Green Bay should win for the second straight week.

The Saints and Vikings dominated the first 12 weeks of the season and if this Super Bowl forecast had been done then, their chances of winning round 2 would be well over 60 percent. However, the significant improvement from the rest of the NFC playoff field combined with some of the late season struggles, especially by the Saints, results in a far closer second round forecast. Both the Saints and Vikings would still be clear 10+ percentage point favorites in second round.

SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"

Overall, the Saints and Vikings, like the Colts and Chargers have the best chances of meeting in their conference championship games because they have that first round bye. The Colts currently have the best overall chance of winning the Super Bowl. This forecast is statistics based and does not penalize the Colts for their losses in Week 16 and 17 because the players that performed in most of those games are not the ones playing in simulations. The forecast also does not assume that the time off will negatively impact their team chemistry.

The Colts are not necessarily the best team in AccuScore’s simulations. They have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl because of their higher Round 2 probability. They are even money vs. the Saints, Vikings, Cowboys and Packers in Super Bowl simulations on a neutral field. They are slight 51 percent favorites vs the Chargers at home. So the numbers are not necessarily the right indicator of how good each team is, but they do show just how important home-field advantage and a first-round bye are to helping a teams’ chances of winning the Super Bowl.

With more than 10,000 computer simulations in the books for Thursday's Civil War for the Rose Bowl, AccuScore has delivered a prediction: Ducks 35, Beavers 23.

In games involving Oregon and Oregon State this season, AccuScore has predicted the winner correctly 71 percent of the time, 74 percent in the Pac-10 as a whole. Of course, what matters is what real human beings do on the field so AccuScore has also projected a few different scenarios of what could happen:

First, the baseline prediction:
Oregon is a clear-cut 79 percent favorite winning by an average of 11 points. 

Offensively, Oregon has the edge in both the passing game and rushing game.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
While home field advantage makes a big difference, AccuScore would still favor Oregon in all three scenarios.

WEATHER
Both teams are used to playing in wet conditions, but if the weather is bad for this game (heavy precipitation, windy) we do not think either team would get an edge.  Poor weather would only (predictably) serve to help stymie both offenses.

LAMICHAEL JAMES EXPLOSIVE RUNS
In AccuScore simulations an explosive run is defined as any run of at least 8 yards.  This distance is meant to approximate a runner getting past the tackle box and/or getting substantial yards after contact.  An average running back may have an explosive run 15 percent of the time.  In simulations LaMichael James is creating an explosive run an amazing 25 percent of the time on his carries. On those carries James actually averages over 16 yards per run.  Stopping these kinds of plays will obviously be key for the Beavers. If Oregon State can limit James and the entire Oregon team to half as many explosive runs then the Oregon average margin of victory goes from 12 to just 4 points.

MASOLI TURNOVERS
In addition to limiting those explosive runs, Oregon State needs to force turnovers.  Jeremiah Masoli is averaging just under one turnover per game (interceptions + lost fumbles).  However, with each additional Masoli turnover the Ducks chances of victory drop significantly.

If Oregon State forces three or more Ducks turnovers while turning the ball over no more than once themselves then Oregon State is favored in 53 percent of simulations.

OREGON STATE PENALTIES
Obviously, if Oregon State cuts its penalties in half, its chances improve, but it is important to determine what the penalties are.  Many holding penalties on runs result in long runs that are brought back due to holding.  We will assume that Oregon State will not commit as many penalties, but in the process it will not receive the ‘benefit’ of the hold (i.e. it will not get more explosive running plays because it will not hold).  We will assume that the Beavers will commit fewer holds in pass protection (which could result in more sacks), fewer personal fouls, fewer off-sides, fewer pass interference calls, etc.

When you cut penalties in half, but also cut the "benefit" of the penalty as well the impact of Oregon State cutting penalties in half is significant, but not as large as you might think.