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Joakim Noah has been playing for several weeks now with an injured thumb. Both he and the Bulls however have deemed it necessary now to undergo surgery in order to be ready for the playoffs.  The center is expected to miss up to 8-10 weeks of action which would put him out until March.

Noah has been a huge factor in the Bulls’ improvement this season averaging 14 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a night. He ranks 5th in the NBA in boards, and is one of the best defenders in the league.  His loss is a big one for Chicago.  The Bulls are projected to be about four games worse without Noah in the lineup for 10 weeks, but luckily the Central division and the teams behind them are relatively week. They are still projected to maintain their 4th position in the East.

Chicago only had Carlos Boozer and Noah together for nine games winning the last seven in a row. Luckily the upcoming schedule lightens up now for the Bulls, and the timeline for recovery should allow for at least a month of games to re-assimilate Noah in preparation for the playoffs.

Chris Bosh took an errant shot to the face from Antawn Jamison on Tuesday night, suffering what amounts to a broken face. Officially Bosh had surgery to repair a displaced nasal fracture, and will be “re-evaluted” in 7-10 days. His regular \ season is over, and more than likely would be out for any playoff series.

With only five games left in the regular season and a one-game lead on the Bulls, AccuScore still projects the Raptors to make the postseason. With Bosh, Toronto’s playoff probability was 81 percent. Now it is 75 percent. Toronto plays Chicago at home on Sunday so that game could ultimately determine who wins the 8th spot.

Even if the Raptors sneak into the postseason, they would have to play LeBron James and the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. With Bosh there was less than a 3 percent chance of taking that opening-round series. Without him the probability drops to just 2 percent, and just a tenth of a percent chance of winning a subsequent round.

Free agency looms this summer for Chris Bosh so Toronto fans may have already seen the last of him in a Raptors uniform.

By Matt Simo

The Chicago Bulls (37-40) might look back on Tuesday’s home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks as the day they blew their shot at the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Earlier in the night, the Toronto Raptors (38-39) saw All-Star Chris Bosh suffer a fractured face in the opening minutes of a 113-101 loss at Cleveland. Ironically, both the Bulls and Raptors are fighting for a chance to play the top-seeded Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.

Nobody could have written a better opening script or worse ending for Chicago, as the team jumped out to a 27-14 lead at the end of the first quarter only to struggle immensely on offense the rest of the way in a 79-74 loss. A win would have pulled the Bulls even with Toronto in the standings, but now they have a lot of work to do in the last five games, including a crucial trip to the Air Canada Centre on Sunday. The only other non-playoff team Chicago plays over the final week of the regular season is the New Jersey Nets on the road this Friday. Home games against Cleveland and Boston along with a battle at Charlotte in the season finale make for a tough road.

Meanwhile, Toronto does not know if and when Bosh will be back heading into the most critical stretch of the year. Bosh is averaging career-best numbers of 24.3 points and 11 rebounds per game and also happens to be one of Chicago’s top free-agent targets this offseason. The Raptors have dropped three straight games but seem to have an easier path to the postseason assuming they can beat the Bulls in their last meeting. They have already won the season series (and potential tie-breaker) with Chicago thanks to a pair of wins during the first month by a combined 42 points. Toronto went 3-4 (1-6 against the spread) without Bosh earlier this season when he missed seven games in late February and early March with an ankle injury.

According to AccuScore, the Raptors have a 81% chance of earning the #8 seed in the East while the Bulls are sitting at 19%. The Charlotte Bobcats also clinched their first-ever playoff berth on Tuesday with a 109-100 win over Atlanta and are fairly cemented in the seventh spot.

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.

The Bucks made two moves at the deadline swapping Joe Alexander and Hakim Warrick for John Salmons from Chicago, and sending Jodie Meeks and Francisco Elson to Philadelphia for Primoz Brezec, Royal Ivey, and a 2nd round pick.

Milwaukee picked up some assets for several players that were no longer in their plans.  That makes these moves fairly solid despite being projected to be 3.3% worse per night this season.  Alexander hasn’t played at all this season while Meeks, Elson, and Warrick were not in the regular rotation.  Salmons hasn’t played great basketball this season, but it’s possible he could bounce back some being more of a focal point on offense in Milwaukee and just being asked to score.  The Bucks still have a solid 43.2% chance of making the playoffs.

The Sixers pick up a young player with some upside in Meeks.

The big winner in the Salmons trade though is the Bulls.  Chicago cleared $5.8 million owed to Salmons from their 2011 books giving them enough room for a max deal making a serious run at Dwyane Wade possible.  Combined with their deal with Charlotte sending away Tyrus Thomas for Flip Murray and Acie Law makes deadline day as a great success for Chicago. 

Warrick should be very capable of replacing Thomas very easily without the attitude problems.  Flip Murray fits Salmons role of being a bench perimeter scorer very well.  Better yet, the deal does not impact Chicago’s cap space negatively.  Projections actually have the Bulls better after shedding both Thomas and Salmons.

Charlotte adds a talented player in Thomas to its frontcourt.  He still has some upside as a nice athlete that is still very young (23 yrs.).  He does come with issues however as he clashed often with his coaches in Chicago, and will have to learn to get along with the tough-nosed Larry Brown with the Bobcats.   Thomas does though provide an alternative to Boris Diaw, and is certainly better than the other available options (Stephen Graham, Derrick Brown, et al).  Charlotte might miss Flip Murray the most with D.J. Augustin being the only semi-reliable reserve guard on the roster behind Raymond Felton and Stephen Jackson.