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Drew Storen was picked 10th overall by Washington last year, and now he will soon debut in the majors. He spent two seasons as the closer for Stanford, and should eventually occupy that role in the big leagues. Storen had a 1.08 ERA with 4 saves and 15 strikeouts in the minors this year (16.2 IP at AA-AAA).

For now he will probably pitch in front of Tyler Clippard and Matt Capps, but those two should be prime trade candidates if Washington is even remotely interested in rebuilding. I think he will get opportunities in the latter half of this season, and if Capps is the one traded it would make sense to hand over the job to Storen and not Clippard.

Everyone loves the new guy.  It’s especially true for back-up quarterbacks, and in baseball it’s true for hotshot prospects every spring.  Every year though, fantasy players jump a bit overboard looking for the next big thing and reach for prospects without defined roles, are too far from the majors, or simply not as good as their press clippings.  Here is a quick look at some rookies that could be interesting in fantasy this season.

Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta
If there is one rookie to own in fantasy this year, this is the guy.  Conventional wisdom would say Heyward would return to the minors at least to start the year, but this is not a conventional player.  Universally seen as the top position player prospect in baseball, Heyward is a freak of nature.  He is still just 20 years old, but stands 6’4’’ and is up to 235 lbs. He also has been crushing balls this spring drawing rave reviews from everyone, and leading to comparisons to Albert Pujols from opposing managers.  Currently AccuScore has a conservative projection of 50% playing time with close to a .300 average and 13 home runs.  If he wins a job out of spring, he should be the true breakout star fantasy owners are looking for.  With Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske being his main competition, RF looks like the perfect spot for Heyward in 2010.

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay
Here is the classic case of a top prospect that fantasy owners should temper expectations for.  While viewed as a top 10 prospect, Jennings might not see a major league field this season.  Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have two OF spots locked up, and Matt Joyce, and Gabe Kapler are very serviceable.  Jennings isn’t draftable in all but the deepest mixed leagues (unless you’re in a keeper/dynasty league of course).

Scott Sizemore – 2B, Detroit
Sizemore is the likely starter at 2B, and playing time is the key to success for any prospect.  He is not flashy, but put up solid numbers in the minors hitting .297.  More importantly he had a career .383 OBP which could lead to a decent run total in Detroit.  Sizemore has average speed, but could get you around 15-20 stolen bases with a full season of work.  He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Brandon Wood – 3B, Anaheim
It’s probably now or never for Wood with the Angels. The loss of Chone Figgins leaves the 3B job to Wood, and we project him to hit .265 with solid power about 20 home runs. His problem has always been a long swing that leads to strikeouts, something he improved on last season. Wood is probably ready for a major league role, but I personally get the feeling the Angels don’t trust him and that Mike Scioscia flat-out doesn’t like him (as a player). For some reason, Scioscia seems to prefer Macier Izturis. A trade to another team would probably improve his fantasy outlook.

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati
Stubbs will probably face some competition for the CF job from Chris Dickerson, but he is likely to win a starting spot. We currently project Stubbs for a .277 average with 30 steals and more than 80 runs.  That is a useful fantasy player.  His does have a problem with strikeouts, and hit just .202 on the road in about 200 major-league at-bats last season. However, he is just 25 and will have time and opportunity this season.  He could be a nice late-round pick-up.

Tommy Manzella – SS, Houston
The fact that he will be the starting SS for the Astros should be an indictment on the entire franchise.  Manzella posted a career .321 OBP in the minors.  He is all-glove and no-hit, somebody you don’t want to own in fantasy.

Michael Brantley – OF, Cleveland
The signing of Russell Branyan might leave Brantley without a job pushing Matt LaPorta to LF. Still, Brantley is a name to remember for later in the year.  He hit .313 during a September call-up, and is a career .300 avg / .383 OBP hitter in the minors with plus speed.  With a full season of work he could hit for a solid average with 40 steals and good run totals (but without much power).

Cleveland:  Antawn Jamison, Sebastian Telfair
Los Angeles Clippers:  Drew Gooden
Washington: Zydrunas Ilgasukas, Al Thornton, Brian Skinner, 1st round pick (from CLE)

In the biggest deal so far this trading season, the Cavaliers got LeBron James another sidekick by acquiring Antawn Jamison from the Wizards.  The kicker here is that the team didn’t even have to give up J.J. Hickson to do it.  Zydrunas Ilgauskas goes to Washington, but the Cavs operate better with Varejao at center so this loss of Big Z is immaterial (except in Nike puppet commercials). 

The trade bumps up Cleveland’s projected record to a tidy 63-19 for the season and the projected leader for homecourt throughout the playoffs (+1.8 percent per game).  This ends any talk of Amare to the Cavs.  One reason why GM Danny Ferry would prefer this trade is the ability to keep Hickson in the fold.  Jamison also might be a better fit at power forward in a small(er) lineup with Varejao and James in the frontcourt.  Jamison is also a very low turnover guy, and is known as a good team player.  He won’t upset the nice balance the Cavs are cultivated thus far this season.  One question Cleveland will have to answer is the glut they have now at power forward.  Hickson, Varejao, Jamison and the soon-to-return Leon Powe will be fighting it out for minutes.  Also, if the Cavs don’t win the title, they will have to wonder forever if Amare would have gotten them across the finish line.

Washington is in full-scale sell mode shedding every salary they can.  The team needs to rebuild completely starting through the draft.  Even if the pick they pick-up from Cleveland is low, it is still a valuable asset.  Every loss this season also means more ping-pong balls in the John Wall lottery.

The Clippers had nothing to gain (personnel-wise) by becoming a part of this deal.  They did it to clear enough salary space to create a max-salary slot for this upcoming season.  Drew Gooden is probably going to be waived, so the projected impact of this trade for this season on the Clippers is immaterial.  What it does do is clear Thornton and Telfair from the books leaving Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman on the roster for 2010-11.  DeAndre Jordan has a team option that will probably be exercised.  I wonder who is available that would fit at the small forward spot and will be a free agent?  Hmmm….

The first big move of the NBA trade season went down Saturday as Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson were traded from the Washington Wizards to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross and James Singleton.

The trade is a very good one for Dallas getting the best player in the deal in Butler who, while not having his best season, is still easily out-producing Howard.  Stevenson is a serviceable player in the backcourt that could help in spurts.  Haywood is also a nice addition giving the Mavericks more size to compete in the West.  Haywood is one of only three players in the NBA averaging 10+ rebounds and 2+ blocks this season.

Dallas improved itself by 3 percent per game with this trade.  Howard has played in just 31 games this season, and is having his worst season since his rookie year in 2004.  Butler will be much more dependable.  Being on a contender and no longer the number one option might also help Butler’s low 42 percent shooting percentage. Eric Dampier has injury concerns, and Haywood could easily provide solid defense and rebounding in either a starting or reserve role.  While the trade isn’t earth-shattering in terms of the final standings, it should help the Mavs compete in a seven-game series against either the Nuggets or the Lakers. 

Interestingly, this trade actually improved the Wizards as well.  Washington is slightly better now because Howard has a track record of being a solid player with better career shooting numbers than Butler.  Drew Gooden has shown himself to be a solid low-post scoring option at times in his career, particularly on bad teams.  Even if either player doesn’t do much in a Wizards uniform, Washington can say it “won” this deal by clearing some salaries off the books, which was the ultimate goal.  All four newly acquired players are in the final year of their contracts.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations won 71 percent of the time (182-74 regular season, 6-4 in playoffs) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of spreads and totals check out AccuScore's Winner's Edge which has gone an impressive 14-5, 73.7 percent in the playoffs.

COLTS FAVORED

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs. 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees.

WHICH SAINTS PASS DEFENSE WILL SHOW UP?

The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100 percent and the worst at 0 percent. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90 percent. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom third in the league at 31 percent. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning.

COLTS RUN DEFENSE IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE STATS INDICATE

The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56 percent - slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for less than 100 rushing yards, the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times.

COLTS ARE FAVORED IN A SHOOTOUT THANKS TO TURNOVER MARGIN

If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.