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By Jonathan Lee and Stephen Oh

Reggie Bush might not be the superstar everydown back many expected him to be when he was drafted, but he has become a dangerous weapon in the Saints offense. So with the news Bush will miss up to six weeks with a fractured fibula, how much of an effect, if any, will this have for New Orleans?

The answer is probably not as much as you’d think. AccuScore projections don’t expect this injury to impact the team all that much. While the loss of Bush is measurable, it does not cost the Saints significantly in terms of wins. Over the next six weeks, the Saints average 4.6 wins with Bush and 4.5 without him, a difference of just 0.1 win.

Bush has missed a total of 12 games over the past 4 seasons (2006-09). Over that time New Orleans has averaged 25.3 points per game with him in the lineup, and 32.7 points per game without him. While strength of schedule, and random chance helps explain the difference there, it does show that the team is perfectly of continuing to perform at a high level without Bush.

This week’s scoring leaders are littered with the usual names except two defenses ranking in the top 20, 2 back-up running backs listed below, as well as an aberrant Mark Sanchez performing up to his inflated reputation.  On to the wire.

Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons
95.7% available on ESPN, 80% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 24 carries, 129 rushing yards, 5 catches, 57 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Week 3 projection: 4.3 carries, 22 rushing yards, 0.72 catches, 6 receiving yards

He is not a must-add, but clearly he’s a must-own handcuff to Michael Turner. Turner was on his way to a spectacular day before leaving with a groin injury (9 carries, 75 yards). He reportedly was cleared to return, but the Falcons held him out to make sure he was healthy. Of course if Turner suffers a more serious injury at any point in the season, Snelling is the number one fantasy replacement option given the way the Atlanta offense is geared around the run. Another point to remember in this situation is that you should always start your running backs against the woeful Cardinals defense.

Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers
99.4% available on ESPN, 99% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 16 carries, 82 rushing yards, 1 catch, 13 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 5.4 carries, 28 rushing yards, 2.07 catches, 24 receiving yards

Like Snelling, Tolbert is not an immediate must-add but he must be owned as a handcuff to Ryan Mathews. San Diego’s prized rookie was carted off the field in the first quarter on Sunday, and later returned to the sidelines but not the game. With the way the Chargers doled out playing time I think Tolbert would be the primary back to replace Mathews in the event he misses time with Sproles remaining as a third-down back or change-of-pace guy. San Diego doesn’t view Sproles as a full-time player which bodes well for Tolbert’s value. Tolbert could be worth a pick-up as a speculative hold while monitoring Mathews’ health this week in practice.

Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers
99.7% available on ESPN, 99% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 3 rushes, 1 rushing yard, 5 catches, 33 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection:  4.7 carries, 13 rushing yards, 1.71 catches, 12 receiving yards

Tampa Bay rushed for only 95 yards on 34 carries as a team against Carolina. This isn’t a great running team, but the upside with Graham is that he was the only other back besides Cadillac Williams to receive a carry while he was second on the team with six targets in the passing game. This is just an alert for you to be prepared when the inevitable Williams injury comes later on this season.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
98% available on ESPN, 82% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 9 targets, 8 catches, 97 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 5.18 catches, 60 receiving yards, 0.22 TD

Thomas made his debut Sunday, and led the Broncos with nine targets. Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney were next on that list with five apiece. Thomas has the size and skills to be a rookie facsimile of Brandon Marshall for Denver’s offense. He looks to be the top target for Kyle Orton, and while he probably will be inconsistent he is the top WR waiver option this week.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans
89.3% available on ESPN, 66% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 11 targets, 11 catches, 144 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 3.28 catches, 40 receiving yards, 0.27 TD

This is back-to-back weeks with touchdowns for Walter. After gashing the Colts on the ground and throwing only 17 passes last week, Houston got back to its passing identity with Matt Schaub putting the ball up 52 times. Walter is third on the team with 13 targets through two games. While he won’t be consistent, Walter is a nice back-up WR to have as a solid player on a very good offense. Remember, he has averaged 59 catches over the past 3 seasons with 14 TDs.

Louis Murphy, WR, Raiders
69.5% available on ESPN, 71% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 10 targets, 6 catches, 91 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 4.6 catches, 35 receiving yards, 0.16 TD

Murphy leads the Raiders with 17 targets through 2 weeks, and should continue to be a top target for whoever is playing QB. He did have a solid rookie showing considering the mess that was Oakland in 2009 so with the team slightly more competent this year, and Darren McFadden providing a running game, Murphy is a decent WR3 option for fantasy teams.

Nate Washington, WR, Titans
62.5% available on ESPN, 50% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 9 targets, 4 catches, 34 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 2.62 catches, 34 receiving yards, 0.16 TD

This is the second straight week Washington is a solid pick-up for fantasy owners as he was snapped up in 34.9% of ESPN leagues a week ago. Expect a similar jump up again as Washignton scored for the second straight week. While he only has eight total catches this season, he leads the Titans with 13 targets. Running back Chris Johnson is second with 10. Washington has teased fantasy owners before, but this FINALLY might the year he puts up a more consistent effort as he is clearly the favorite Titans receiver through two weeks.

Tony Moeaki, TE, Chiefs
98.6% available on ESPN, 91% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 10 targets, 5 catches, 58 receiving yards
Week 3 projection: 3.24 catches, 32 receiving yards, 0.14 TD

Moeaki scored Week 1, and leads the Chiefs with 14 targets. He’s a weapon and QB Matt Cassel is going to him. Moeaki was always talented, but his production was limited at Iowa because of various injuries. He’s healthy now however, and performing up to his talent.

Week 1 of the NFL is in the books, and already there are key injuries (Ryan Grant, Kris Jenkins) and even a trade (Laurence Maroney). Here are the best players available that you should be targeting on waivers for fantasy domination.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers
97.9% available on ESPN, 73% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 18 carries, 63 yds rushing, 2 catches, 12 yds receiving
Week 2 projection: 20 carries, 92 yds rushing, 0.79 total TD, 23 yds receiving

Ryan Grant is out for the season with a fractured ankle and ligament damage. Jackson was undoubtedly the number one pick-up this week, and this only further increases his value. He is worth spending the majority of your FAAB to get him. He has favorable match-ups coming up with Buffalo on Sunday and Chicago and Detroit in the following weeks. Jackson has moved in the top 15 fantasy running backs in our season long projections.

Fred Taylor, RB, New England Patriots
78.7% available on ESPN, 58% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 14 carries, 71 yds rushing, 2 catches, 6 yds receiving
Week 2 projection: 13 carries, 63 yds rushing, 0.48 total TD, 3 yds receiving

While New England will still rotate running backs, the trade of Laurence Maroney clears some room in the backfield. The trade can also been seen as a vote of confidence for the veteran Taylor. Taylor got 61% of the Patriots carries in Week 1, and should continue to see a similar workload as long as he remains healthy. With the way New England’s offense hummed in the opener, Taylor could be a nice secondary option at running back.

Mark Clayton, WR, St. Louis Rams
95.5% available on ESPN
Week 1 stats: 16 targets, 10 catches, 119 yds
Week 2 projection: 4.4 catches, 61 yds receiving, 0.2 TD
Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams
98.8% available on ESPN, CBS, Yahoo
Week 1 stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 67 yds
Week 2 projection: 2.9 catches, 26 yds receiving, 0.11 TD

The Rams are going to be throwing the ball plenty this season. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford went to the air 55 times against Arizona against just 24 rushing attempts with almost half those passes headed toward these two receivers. Bradford will struggle this year, but looks worthy of the number one overall selection which boosts the value of both Clayton and Amendola. Clayton is clearly the number one receiver receiving nearly twice as many targets as the next two players (Amendola and Laurent Robinson) combined. Because of this, Clayton is actually forecasted for a 1000 yard season. The Wes Welker comparisons for Amendola are inevitable. Both guys went undrafted, were incredibly successful playing at Texas Tech, and fit perfectly in the slot. Think of Amendola as Welker-lite; he’s on a worse team and offense but should still be able to put up numbers. Amendola has extra value in PPR leagues, just like Welker.

Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts
21.9% available on ESPN, 34% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 12 targets, 11 catches, 163 yds, 1 TD
Week 2 projections: 4.2 catches, 56 yds, 0.56 TD

You only need to look as far as Brandon Stokley to know that the 3rd receiver for the Colts can still be a dominant force in fantasy. Collie probably had his best game of the season in Week 1, but a repeat performance is never out of the question with Peyton Manning throwing him passes. Anthony Gonzalez is out for Week 2 with a high ankle sprain, an injury that is notoriously tough to recover from. Collie isn’t widely available, but I’m listing him here because he should be universally owned.

Legedu Naanee, WR, San Diego Chargers
61.3% available on ESPN, 71 % on CBS
Week 1 stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 110 yds, 1 TD
Week 2 projections: 3.4 catches, 42 yards receiving, 0.41 TD

With Vincent Jackson out for the foreseeable future, Naanee is the primary beneficiary. Quarterback Philip Rivers has clicked quickly with receivers in the past – Jackson, Malcolm Floyd – so a solid for Naanee could be the start of a trend. Teams will be focused on stopping Floyd and Antonio Gates so Naanee should face plenty of single coverage this season.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
65% available on ESPN,
Week 1 stats: 21/33, 295 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 12 yds rushing
Week 2 projections: 62% completion, 251 yds passing, 1 TD, 0.76 INT, 5 yds rushing

The Broncos threw 33 times while running 25 times. The trade for Laurence Maroney seems like a cry for help for the ground game which means Denver will probably continue to be a passing offense. Orton finished among the top 15 QBs last year (standard scoring) and while he’s not elite he can be a solid back-up option. AccuScore projects him as the 16th best quarterback for the rest of the season.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
79.6% available on ESPN, 64% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 16/21, 170 yds passing, 3 TD, 0 INT, 10 yds rushing
Week 2 projections: 63% completion, 208 yds passing, 1.04 TD, 0.7 INT, 18 yds rushing

Garrard posted a career high passer rating in Week 1 (138.9) in leading his team to a win against Denver. While he’s not a flashy name, or some hotshot rookie Garrard should be a nice steady option and a solid fantasy back-up. For the season he is projected to average better than 12 points per week the rest of the season, and ranks 15th overall according to our player rankings. If for some reason you were banking on Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, or Mark Sanchez this year change your mind quickly and pick up Garrard.

Chiefs D/ST
99.2% available on ESPN
Week 1 stats: 14 points allowed, 1 return TD, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks
Week 2 projection: 19.7 points allowed, 1.3 sacks, 2.57 turnovers

The Chiefs are not world beaters by any means, but oftentimes with fantasy D/ST it all comes down to match-ups. And in this case, being in the AFC West is a very good thing. KC has a nice match-up in Cleveland this week, and then San Francisco for Week 3. Also looking ahead it has St. Louis in Week 15 just in time for your final playoff match-up. And with Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster returning kicks, you could get just the boost your team needs.

This week in the Closer Report: Hensley cleaning up for the Marlins, Takahashi, Lyon and Uehara still under-owned, and Kuo stabilizes the Dodger bullpen.

• Brandon Lyon was signed to be the closer, and since assuming the role from Matt Lindstrom he has performed well. His pitching line since August 1: 2.59 ERA, 16 strikeouts, 10 walks, 24.1 innings, 14 saves.  The walks are still higher than you’d like, but he’s been getting the job done. He’s probably the Astros closer for 2011.

• Since being promoted to the closer role, Clay Hensley has allowed just 3 hits in 6.1 innings with 3 saves.  That was on the heels of a great August when he went 2-0 with 12 strikeouts in 13 IP.  Hensley has a 2.42 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts on the season.  Pick up Hensley if you need a strikeouts and saves.  Leo Nunez has been very poor since August (8.03 ERA, 7 walks in 12 IP) so the 9th inning job will likely be an open battle next spring.

• Hisanori Takahashi is still available in 60% of ESPN standard leagues. He already has four saves in September and hasn’t allowed a run in 11 appearances.  What are you waiting for?

• The Dodgers are having a lost season, but at least Hong-Chih Kuo has been consistently dominant.  He has only been scored upon five times this year in 50 outings with a 1.36 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.  His only blown save( in 10 chances) was on 6/4, and even so he got the win. With Jonathan Broxton relegated to middle relief the rest of the year converted catcher Kenley Jansen is the back-up closer. He’s got amazing stuff with 29 strikeouts in just 18.2 innings. His inexperience (he converted to pitching in the middle of last year) is evident in his 11 walks, but he’s only allowed two runs without a home run. It will be very interesting to see what the Dodgers do with Broxton in the offseason and spring training.

• Evan Meek will get some save chances as the season winds down according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. With essentially a timeshare and less than  month’s worth of games remaining this decision effectively kills the value of both Meek and Joel Hanrahan in mixed leagues. Both are under contract for 2011 so the duo will likely battle next spring for the job.

• Being a closer suits Koji Uehara. Since recording his first save August 21 Uehara has pitched 10.1 innings. In that span he’s converted 9 of 10 saves with 11 strikeouts. Subtract a blip on 9/8 against the Yankees when he surrendered 2 runs while getting just 1 out and his ERA is 2.70.  He’s still available in far too many leagues so go get him if you need to make up ground in saves.

• Chris Perez since August 1: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 20 strikeouts, 4 walks, .185 SLG against, 8 saves. Why did the Indians sign Kerry Wood again? (I will continue to answer this question until 2011 starts)

• David Aardsma had a rough June and first half of July, but he’s been pretty much nails since giving up two runs on 7/8. Since then he’s made 20 appearances pitching 19.1 innings with a 0.93 ERA converting 13 of 14 saves. In that span he’s struck out 21 batters with 10 walks, both numbers right in line with his career numbers. While it looked like Aardsma could have been on the way out of the closer job in Seattle midseason, he looks fine going forward to keep his job heading into next season.

This week in the Closer Report: Takahashi, Lyon, Gonzalez worth pick-ups and Jenks solidifies his role through attrition.

• Brandon Lyon has taken over for the injured Matt Lindstrom, and now has 7 saves on the season and has been very solid recently. In his last 19.1 innings Lyon has allowed 5 runs but all 5 came in a single outing against the Braves on 8/11. A couple worries for Lyon would be his 10:10 K:BB ratio in that span, unsustainable .229 BABIP (career .304), and his shaky history.  But any player can be lucky for a short period of time especially in a small sample.  There’s no real reason why Lyon can’t be fine for the rest of the year. An interesting name to watch for Houston in 2011 would be Wilton Lopez who has had a solid rookie season with a 2.61 FIP and 1.1 WAR in 56.1 IP.

• With Francisco Rodriguez out for the year, Hisanori Takahashi has taken over as closer for the Mets. Since 7/28 Takahashi has a 1.62 ERA in 16.2 IP with 19 strikeouts (0 HR allowed). His job is safe, and his performance warrants a pick-up for those needing saves in all formats.

• Juan Gutierrez came off the DL on 8/19 and promptly got a save on 8/21. I’d say he has the lead in this committee situation.

• Honestly I have no idea what Joe Torre is doing day-by-day with this entire roster in Los Angeles not to mention the closers. The good news is that Broxton and Kuo are still both terrific pitchers no matter what the yelling heads say on TV, and both are worth owning in fantasy because of strikeouts and save potential.

• Braves set-up man Takashi Saito is reportedly having trouble with his vision at night, but he is still the top option behind Wagner.

• Both Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz were put on the DL Wednesday.  Bobby Jenks never truly lost his job, but this latest news makes sure he gets the most saves for the White Sox from here on out.  Jenks has actually pitched very well recently only allowing a run in one of his last 11 appearances (11.2 IP with 15 strikeouts and 3 ER) converting 4 of 5 save opportunities. My guess would be Scott Linebrink would back up Jenks for now, but with Ozzie Guillen it wouldn’t surprise me if either Sergio Santos or Chris Sale were used despite their youth and inexperience.

• It’s still unclear who the closer in Baltimore “officially” is.  Since 8/8 when Alfredo Simon recorded his last save Simon has allowed 4 ER (3 HR) with 7 strikeouts in 6.1 IP with a blown save. Mike Gonzalez has allowed just 1 ER in 4.0 IP with 7 strikeouts. Koji Uehara actually notched a save on 8/21 and protected a 4 run lead on 8/19. If I had to own one Baltimore reliever for the rest of the season it would be Gonzalez and then Uehara.

• Chris Perez in August: 8.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 4 saves.  Why did the Indians sign Kerry Wood again?

• Andrew Bailey returned Sunday and pitched a perfect 9th in a loss to Tampa Bay. He had two strikeouts, and is fine going forward. Michael Wuertz was solid as a replacement. In 11.1 IP he had 5 saves and 16 strikeouts with a 3.97 ERA.

The next top prospect has been called up, and before you rush out to grab him in your fantasy leagues, take a moment to examine Chris Carter.  The Oakland A’s are completely out of the race with just a 1.9% chance at the playoffs according to AccuScore’s latest numbers.  And that is up from just 0.5% just last week.  Carter will fill in at 1B and OF, and management has said that when he comes up he will be up for good.  With the variety of injuries currently plaguing the A’s, playing time will probably be plentiful.  Success however might be in short supply.

Carter has hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 424 at-bats at Triple-A Sacramento in the offensively oriented PCL.  He started the season off very slowly, but has picked it up considerably since the All-Star break hitting .362 with a 1.151 OPS and 8 HR in 25 games. The downside though is clear: 124 strikeouts, a rate of nearly 30%. The power is legitimate, but he will be playing in a poor hitter’s environment in Oakland as well as Anaheim and Seattle.

The best comparable out there is probably Florida’s Mike Stanton, another prospect with huge power and problems making contact.  Stanton has a K-rate of 36% while hitting the ball a long way when he does connect (10 HR).  Expect much of the same from Carter which makes him barely on the fringe in standard mixed leagues and an AL-only play.

Every year NFL news outlets have to focus on Brett Favre and whether he will return for another year. Even if those of us who are sick of this annual "will he or won't he" story wanted to ignore this story, the fact is, Favre's impact on the Vikings is gigantic and they are AccuScore's pick to win the NFC.

Favre had his best statistical season in 2009 with a completion percentage of 68.4 to go along with 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 interceptions. AccuScore has simulated the entire 2010 season 10,000 times and based on his average simulation we expect Favre to have a very good year, but not quite as good as last season's great aberrant season.

With Favre playing this well (a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio) the Vikings are once again the heavy favorite to win the NFC North despite the upgrades that the rest of the division have made in the off-season.

What if Favre Regresses?

However, given his advanced age and his overall career statistics (around 1.5 to 1 TD to INT ratio, 62% completion percentage) it is not unrealistic that Favre could regress this year. AccuScore disregarded his phenomenal 2009 statistics and re-simulated the season with a "regressed Favre."

In this simulation Favre has more than 20 interceptions. [Interestingly, his passing yards is the same because when Favre is not playing as well the Vikings are not playing from ahead as much as they did in the baseline simulation. When a team is playing from ahead they run the ball more and pass less. So Brett Favre can actually have more passing yards the worst he plays.]

The Vikings win just over 10 games per simulation and their chances of winning the NFC North drops over 20 percentage points.

However, the reason why there is so much fuss about Brett Favre is that even if he is not nearly as good as he was last year with him the Vikings are still the favorite to win the division and are one of 6 teams projected for double digit victories in the league.

If Favre is not at QB and Tarvaris Jackson is the starter the Vikings drop to No. 2 in the division and their playoff chances drop from 91 to 48.5 percent. This is why the Vikings are willing to put up with the drama, slow decision making and all the other distractions – even when he's not great, Favre makes

This week in the Closer Report: at the All-Star break. Who is the man in Arizona plus several middle relievers that can help you without getting saves.

• Who is the closer in Arizona? Nobody can say for sure, probably not even interim manager Kirk Gibson. Juan Gutierrez got the last save for the D-Backs on 7/10 pitching a perfect 9th after Chad Qualls had started the inning and allowed 2 runs without getting an out. Aaron Heilman got two outs in the 8th inning of that game, but got the 2 saves before that (6/27 and 6/30).

Heilman is 31 and has a 4.94 xFIP. Qualls has been even worse this season, and hasn’t been remotely effective. Esmerling Vasquez is striking people out, but is walking almost five batters per nine. Sam Demel is pitching pretty well since being traded to Arizona, but has just 12 MLB innings and has not been used yet late in games. That probably leaves Gutierrez as the winner by attrition. If you’re desperate, Gutierrez is probably your man but this is a situation to avoid unless you are very, very desperate.

• Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson, despite being the top back-ups to Heath Bell, have notched just one combined save this year. Both though have K/9 rates over 10 with WHIPs under 1.00. Both can help your fantasy teams as both have been heavily used (41+ IP for both).

• John Axford has appeared to have settled into the Milwaukee closer role. At this point he looks to be a high strikeout pitcher with an ERA in the low 3’s. Currently his career BABIP in 33.2 IP is .325 which seems a bit high considering his stuff, but the small sample size makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Either way, Axford is a solid mid-tier fantasy closer.

• Erstwhile Baltimore closer Mike Gonzalez will report to Triple-A Norfolk on Friday according to MASN and will pitch at least three games there. The team will then decide whether or not to activate him. Alfredo Simon has settled into the closer role in his absence allowing just two runs and five hits over his last nine innings. I think if you own one Baltimore reliever the rest of the year it should be Simon. If you’re in a league larger than 12-team mixed however and need saves, Gonzalez is a must add. The way the trade market looks, it is possible there will be minimal turnover with regards to closer jobs.

• Although there might not be a lot of movement with closers going to contenders, the most likely guy to get moved is probably Kerry Wood to a contender in a setup role. That makes Chris Perez, who has outperformed Wood on the mound, a very hot commodity. Perez has lowered his ERA each month this season. He has walked six batters in just 3.1 IP in July, but that appears to be a fluke since he has walked just 12 batters in 31 innings before this month. Perez should be the number one pick up for people looking for saves after the break.

• Tanner Scheppers, the No. 39 ranked prospect according to MLB, looks like he is being groomed for a role in the bullpen for Texas down the stretch. The hard throwing righty was showcased at the Futures Game and hit 99 mph on the radar gun and was sitting at 96-97. He has struck out 64 batters in 50 minor league innings. Neftali Feliz is entrenched in the 9th inning for the Rangers, but Scheppers is a name to be aware of.

• Bobby Jenks is safe as the closer of the White Sox, but now J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, and Sergio Santos have vulture saves in the past month. Thornton remains the most valuable because he looks like the top back-up having 5 total saves on the season. All three can help any fantasy team however as they all have K/9 rates over 10 and low ERAs.

HOW HIGHLY DO YOU VALUE STRASBURG IN FANTASY?
Even by the most optimistic expectations, Stephen Strasburg exceeded them in his scintillating debut Tuesday against the Pirates. The rookie struck out 14 batters in 7 innings mixing in a 100 MPH fastball with a knee-buckling curve, a slider that seems to take a direct left turn right in front of the plate, and a “change-up” that sits in the high 80s and dives away from bats.  Yea, Strasburg was well worth the hype.

AccuScore projections are very optimistic about him putting him among such fantasy luminaries as Halladay, Jimenez, Wainwright, and Lincecum for the rest of the season.  His projected line is 12 wins, 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and better than a strikeout an inning. Strasburg will only be limited by the Washington offense and management. He will likely be on both pitch and innings counts, but that shouldn’t limit his immense fantasy value until September. Treat Strasburg as a top 10 fantasy talent among starting pitchers.

MIKE STANTON MAKES QUIETEST DEBUT EVER
Florida outfielder Mike Stanton made perhaps the quietest debut for such a top prospect ever due to the Strasmas on Tuesday. Being overshadowed didn’t seem to bother Stanton though as he went 3-for-5 with 2 runs and a strikeout batting 7th for the Marlins. The rookie had been slugging an absurd .726 in the minors with 21 home runs, a rate of 1 every 9 at-bats. Stanton has a massive power and problems with strikeouts, which is what you can expect the rest of the season. Think Adam Dunn (for now). AccuScore’s projection of a .288 average might be optimistic due to his contact issues, but the 15 home runs and 50 RBI are definitely in reach.

PIRATES COMMIT TO YOUTH MOVEMENT
Pittsburgh had already given everyday jobs to Steve Pearce and Neil Walker earlier this season, and now two more youngsters are joining the major league club. Brad Lincoln, while not a Strasburg level prospect obviously, will make his debut Wednesday against the Nationals alongside outfielder Jose Tabata who was acquired from the Yankees.

Lincoln was the 4th overall pick in 2006 and was rated the 4th best Pirates prospect by Baseball America. In his last 10 starts at AAA-Indianapolis he has is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA, and a solid 3.9 K:BB ratio. Tabata has been impressive as well with a .308/.373/.424 line with 25 steals. He’s still just 21 and likely won’t hit for much power, but he should play every day and gives Pittsburgh an athletic outfield along with Andrew McCutchen and Lastings Milledge. This latest wave of call-ups likely marks the end of the Jeff Clement experiment. The C/1B was optioned back down to the minors.

BALTIMORE TRIO OF PITCHERS HAVE ARRIVED
Oriole fans have eagerly awaited the arrival of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta hoping the trio will be the new Big 3 similar to Oakland when they featured Hudson, Zito, and Mulder. Now it looks like all three will finally be together in the major league rotation as Arrieta is expected to make his debut on Thursday against the Yankees. In 73 innings at Triple-A, Arrieta is 6-2 with a 1.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts. The 34 walks he’s issued are a concern. Take a wait and see approach with Arrieta except in AL-only leagues.

Matusz and Tillman made 20 combined starts last season, but Tillman has just rejoined the big club recently.  Tillman had one solid start against Toronto, but was shelled against Boston. A tall lanky righty, Tillman is still one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, but you should wait a few more starts to see if he adjusts to this level.  He is still just 22 years old. Matusz started the season in the rotation and has just been ok in 12 starts. He has been a bit unlucky though as his ERA is 5.10 but his FIP is 4.06 due to an elevated BAIP. He’s also another candidate to watch for a possible late season surge. The talent is certainly there.

NEW WAVE OF CATCHERS
Buster Posey was called up May 29, and has been playing virtually every day. The odd thing is that he has made only two starts at catcher spending most of his time at first base. He is also reportedly still on track for Super Two status so it’s still a complete mystery why San Francisco kept him in the minors for so long. Either way, Posey is up now and hitting an impressive .444 with a .487 OBP. AccuScore projects him to hit .300 with a .370 OBP the rest of the way. Compare that to Bengie Molina who projects for a sub-.300 OBP and it’s even odder why he isn’t playing more at catcher.

The other top catching prospect this season is Carlos Santana, and he’s still toiling in the minors despite Lou Marson embarrassing himself with the Indians. Marson is batting just .215 in 200 career major league at-bats. Meanwhile Santana continues to rake at Triple-A Columbus sporting a line of .314/.447/.580 with 44 walks against just 38 strikeouts. In reality Santana should be up any day now, but it’s impossible to tell what the Cleveland front office is thinking here. If he’s still available I would definitely stash him on your bench and expect him to be up by the end of this month. There is no reason why he should be improving at the big league level.

Ely-mania sweeps the (fantasy) nation
John Ely was acquired by the Dodgers in the Juan Pierre deal, and what a great move it’s turned out to be. Ely had a rocky first start, but has since pitched so well Dodger fans are now extolling his virtues from virtual mountain-tops with the hash-tag #ElyMania. Over four May starts, Ely has gone 3-0 over 25.2 IP with a 2.45 ERA, 24 strikeouts, and incredibly just one walk.

The guy’s stuff doesn’t scream fantasy star, but it’s hard to argue with the results. He should continue to post a solid WHIP with an ERA around 4.00. His style keeps the Dodgers in games which should give him a good chance to continue picking up wins. Ely is a solid pick-up at the end of your rotations even in standard mixed leagues.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron return
No more Darnell McDonald for Boston in the outfield. Ellsbury made a quicker than expected return, and the reports from his rehab were good. He should be solid and safe moving forward. I worry much more about Cameron given his age, and the fact that he needed more time to recover after missing his initial return date. Ellsbury has a composite fantasy rating of 72 while Cameron is just 41 to give an idea of their relative value the rest of the season.

Jimmy Rollins heads back to the land of the injured
The Phillies SS has played in just 12 games this season with 41 at-bats. His return from the DL lasted just 5 games before another calf injury sent him down for the count once again. The initial injury cost him 31 games over 5 weeks, and he aggravated the same injury again. With the very real possibility that this issue lingers, I would be very aggressive in trying to trade him for 75 cents on the dollar. Rollins is one of the premier players at his position when healthy, but you can’t count on that the rest of the season. AccuScore projects him to hit .265 with 12 home runs and 18 steals the rest of the season, not the numbers fans would expect when they drafted him. Try to find some value in return.

Jeff Francis back doing his thing
Francis used to be a useful fantasy pitcher back in 2006-07 with 30 combined wins and ERAs in the low 4.00s. He was terrible in ’08 and missed all of last season with injury. Francis is finally back, and has had two solid starts: 13.1 IP, 9 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 1 ER. Several caveats apply namely the starts were against the Royals and Nationals. Also, Francis has been very hittable (12 allowed) and he is giving up plenty of fly balls without any of them flying out of the park yet. Basically it boils down to team needs. Francis is who he is when healthy, a solid innings-eating lefty with a career 6.20 K/9 and an ERA somewhere in the low 4.00s.

John Jaso impressing
This catcher has surprised in Tampa, and is widely available in most leagues (96.4% ESPN, 81% CBS). The rookie is hitting .328/.452/.507 and even hit third in the lineup earlier this week. He is projected to fall off a bit by AccuScore, but he is still projected to hit .298 the rest of the way. He looks like he has surpassed Dioner Navarro, and you have to believe Bud Black will find at-bats for him even when Kelly Shoppach makes his return. Turn to Jaso if you need catcher help or target him in deeper leagues from owners who think his playing time will disappear.

Mike Leake is making a strong ROY case
The young right-hander didn’t have one inning of minor league experience
Somehow, Leake is only owned in 64 percent of ESPN leagues, but 87 percent of CBS leagues. Snap him up quickly.

Mike Sweeney thinks it’s 2002
The old DH has started eight of Seattle’s past 11 games raising his average from .176 all the way to .297. Sweeney had four multi-hit games with five homeruns and 11 RBI. Even with this nova-like streak, I wouldn’t make a move. The Seattle offense is still the worst in the majors, and Sweeney is still old and injury-prone. Even through this past week there have been reports that Sweeney is suffering from his chronic back issues.

Rafael Furcal finally ready to make his return
After some starts and stops in his rehabilitation from a strained hamstring, Furcal is expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday. Jamey Carroll returns to a utility role.

Miguel Cabrera is having a baby
Or rather his wife is. Cabrera will miss the Tigers’ short two-game series with Seattle. Either Ryan Raburn or Don Kelly will fill-in at 1B.

Chris Ianetta recalled
Sent down to the minors for a month, Ianetta is back with the Rockies. While down at AAA Colorado Springs, Ianetta hit .349 with 5 home runs in 63 at-bats. It is unclear how much he will play with Miguel Olivo entrenched as the starter, but there is more upside with Ianetta. He’s a player worth watching for the next couple weeks to see if a time-share develops.

Prospect time: Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Stephen Strasburg
There’s just one week until the calendar flips to June which means there will soon be a parade of top prospects making their debuts at the major league level. In 2-3 weeks most of these prospects will safely be beyond Super Two status. If any of these four top-level rookies are available in your leagues and you have a need (Stanton for power, Posey/Santana for catching, and Strasburg for pitching) now would be the time to stash these guys on your bench.

The three position players are very widely available in ESPN and CBS public leagues, while Strasburg is mostly owned. Aroldis Chapman is a lower level alternative in my mind to Strasburg who could match the strikeout potential of Strasburg, but maybe not the other peripheral numbers. It’s been widely speculated that Strasburg could start on June 4, which has been flatly denied by Nationals management. That denial makes me think the speculation is right.

This week in the Closer Report: Milwaukee and Baltimore continue to suffer through bullpen issues, Matt Capps finally blows a save, and the underrated brilliance of Rafael Soriano.

• The Brewers are a mess in the bullpen. Some might say this is due to injury, I would say it’s due to the lack of good players. This is on the management who still believed Trevor Hoffman could succeed at 42 years of age. Hoffman pitched the 8th inning on Sunday, a game that was saved by John Axford. Charlie Villanueva pitched 3 total innings in the 3 days prior so he was likely unavailable for that game.

What makes this situation more muddled was the fact that Villanueva pitched the 8th inning Tuesday albeit with a 6-0 lead. Todd Coffey pitched the 9th and allowed 2 hits and a run. I still think Villanueva will more often than not get the call to close games, but this could be a purely game-by-game situation. I’d avoid this situation if you can. If not, I would go with Villanueva then Axford.

• Matt Capps finally blew his first save on Sunday, and the wheels are finally coming apart a bit. His ERA for the month of May is 5.40 in 10 innings. Oddly he hasn’t walked a batter this month and has essentially flipped his groundball-flyball ratio from April. Basically this tells me his luck is starting to even out. Capps’ career FIP is 3.79; expect him to be that pitcher the rest of the season.

• George Sherrill is going on the DL with “mid-back tightness.” My guess would be Ronald Belisario or Hong-Chi Kuo would be the back-up closer to Broxton based on match-ups.

• Huston Street had a 20-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday, a good sign in his rehabilitation. He had previously been limited to long toss. He probably needs at least a couple more weeks to be ready to return. Corpas has been solid as a replacement with 4 saves and a win since blowing a game on May 4.

• The only team that has appeared here every week has been Baltimore.  That is not a good thing. Alfredo Simon had been pretty good filling in saving 6 of 7 games despite a 1.54 WHIP.  Simon however was put on the DL with a hamstring strain Tuesday, and Koji Uehara is out as well with an elbow strain.

That leaves Will Ohman as the likely fill-in for the 9th. Ohman has yet to allow a run in 14.2 IP but has always been more of a lefty specialist. Right-handed hitters have hit 52 points higher against him over the past 3 seasons so it could be bumpy, but he will likely be effective enough to be fairly effective in the short-term. Cla Meredith could also be in the mix. Mike Gonzalez won’t be eligible to be activated until at least 6/9 so there is time for another person to pick up some more saves.

• In case you hadn’t noticed, pitching for a winning team suits Rafael Soriano. The 30-year old reliever has a 1.40 ERA, 0.88 WHIP with 13 saves. He is rated as the fourth-best reliever by AccuScore behind only Broxton, Rivera, and Neftali Feliz.

• Kerry Wood has had just two save chances since returning May 8th going 1 for 2 in those opportunities. He also has two losses. With Cleveland expected to go full-on rebuilding very soon, hold onto Chris Perez. He should have the closer role to end the season.

Changes in Detroit
The Tigers made several fairly unexpected changes over the weekend. Starter Max Scherzer has been struggling all year, and he is headed to the minors to straighten things out. Armando Galarraga will be taking his spot in the rotation, and was solid in his first start against Boston (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K). He is though only interesting in AL-only leagues. Even in 2008 he was not as good as his surface numbers appeared (3.73 ERA, 4.88 FIP). This does mean that Dontrelle Willis actually has solid job security as long as he is healthy.

Changes in Detroit
The Tigers made several fairly unexpected changes over the weekend. Starter Max Scherzer has been struggling all year, and he is headed to the minors to straighten things out. Armando Galarraga will be taking his spot in the rotation, and was solid in his first start against Boston (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K). He is though only interesting in AL-only leagues. Even in 2008 he was not as good as his surface numbers appeared (3.73 ERA, 4.88 FIP). This does mean that Dontrelle Willis actually has solid job security as long as he is healthy.

Rookie Scott Sizemore was expected to be a solid offensive second-baseman, but he struggled mightily with just one home run and a .297 OBP in 97 at-bats. The odd news here is that with Sizemore heading back to the minors for some more seasoning, Carlos Guillen is the new second-baseman in Detroit. Guillen is still currently on the DL, but he is expected to return at the end of May. In the meantime, Ramon Santiago, Danny Worth, and Don Kelly will fill in. None of these players seem intriguing even in AL-only leagues. Guillen is a shadow of his former self as a hitter, and while the position flexibility helps, he’s just not that good. He is also a huge injury risk. None of the other players are likely to get enough consistent playing time to help either.

The one player that does benefit here is rookie Brennan Boesch. Mostly I view this 2B-situation as a way to keep Boesch’s bat in the lineup. He’s currently slugging .676 in 71 at-bats, but with just 2 walks. He does however have hits in 16 of 19 games including 8 multi-hit efforts. Boesch is a must-add in basically all formats while he’s currently hitting like this. He will be in the middle of the Tigers lineup for the foreseeable future.

Jimmy Rollins is back
Get Rollins back into your lineups immediately. Wilson Valdez is likely out of a job (he’s out of options). The great Phillies lineup just got even better.

Pat is the Bat no more
Tampa released scuffling Pat Burrell into the wild on Saturday, and recalled Hank Blalock. This move gives the Rays more flexibility in the lineup since Blalock is left-handed and can also play first and third. Willy Aybar will pick up more at-bats, and will consistently face lefties. Blalock is intriguing since he was hitting .349/.405/.505 at AAA-Durham and has hit in the past with Texas. He’s a must-add for AL-only leagues, and could be worth a flier in deeper mixed leagues.

The other first-rounder for the Nationals gets called up
Drew Storen was picked 10th overall by Washington last year, and now he will soon debut in the majors. He spent two seasons as the closer for Stanford, and should eventually occupy that role in the big leagues. Storen had a 1.08 ERA with 4 saves and 15 strikeouts in the minors this year (16.2 IP at AA-AAA). For now he will probably pitch in front of Tyler Clippard and Matt Capps, but those two should be prime trade candidates if Washington is even remotely interested in rebuilding. I think he will get opportunities in the latter half of this season, and if Capps is the one traded it would make sense to hand over the job to Storen and not Clippard.

Is it time to buy back in with Chad Billingsley?
Chad Billingsley looked like he was head toward stardom after 2008, a year in which he posted a 3.14 ERA with 16 wins and 201 strikeouts. Since then he suffered a broken leg, and some highly publicized meltdowns in the playoffs and questions about his mental make-up. After initially struggling this season, the powerful L.A. pitcher seems to be righting the ship.

Billingsley had his longest outing Sunday since 6/30/09 going 7.1 innings allowing just 4 hits and 0 runs with just 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. He actually threw just 95 pitches, and would have stayed in had the Dodgers had more than a 1 run lead at the time. This was the fourth solid start Billingsley has had in his last five outings. In those four starts he’s gone 24.2 IP allowing just 5 runs. He is still having some problems with walks, and he hasn’t yet earned the confidence of manager Joe Torre to be allowed to pitch through problems, but he’s improving. Now might be the time to grab him from an owner who doesn’t believe Billingsley can keep this up. He is forecasted for 11 more wins with a 3.8 ERA and 130 more strikeouts. His talent suggests even more is possible.

Travis Snider suffers a tough break
The young Toronto outfielder was finally starting to hit with a great .378/.404/.711 line with 3 HR and 10 RBI in May. Now he’s headed to the DL with a sprained wrist. He is only owned in 12.4% of ESPN leagues so it looks like very few people noticed this hot streak. Snider’s first few games when he returns bears watching. If he keeps hitting you should pick him up quickly.

Nick Johnson to undergo annual surgery
The DH will be out until at least July after undergoing surgery on his wrist. The Yankees probably won’t be doing anything interesting with the now open DH spot. They will likely use the slot as a rotation with Marcus Thames getting time, and you will also see more of Francisco Cervelli behind the plate with Jorge Posada as the DH. Joe Girardi wants to avoid Posada catching three days in a row. Although Thames has hit well thus far, the increased exposure to right-handed pitching will crater his average.

Closing Time
As usual, discussion about bullpen situations will be in the Closer Report. Look for that on my blog. Also remember to follow me on Twitter @thejonlee.

Drew Storen was picked 10th overall by Washington last year, and now he will soon debut in the majors. He spent two seasons as the closer for Stanford, and should eventually occupy that role in the big leagues. Storen had a 1.08 ERA with 4 saves and 15 strikeouts in the minors this year (16.2 IP at AA-AAA).

For now he will probably pitch in front of Tyler Clippard and Matt Capps, but those two should be prime trade candidates if Washington is even remotely interested in rebuilding. I think he will get opportunities in the latter half of this season, and if Capps is the one traded it would make sense to hand over the job to Storen and not Clippard.

This week in the Closer Report we take a look at some rehabbing pitchers, unsettled situations in Philadelphia and Colorado, and two big-name closers struggling in the American League.

• I’ve taken Neftali Feliz off temporary status.  He’s converted 9 of 10 saves opportunities, and has now twice gone back-to-back outings without incident. Even better, he hasn’t walked a batter since 4/14, a span of 12 innings. I think he’ll stay in the closer role all season.

• The Indians have been cautious with Kerry Wood, but he finally made his return last Friday. He came in during the 7th inning and allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks. He came in again in the 7th on Sunday and got an out. Eric Wedge has said though that he will be back in the closer’s role this week, and he is safe to own for now. Keep Chris Perez around though, just in case.

• Bobby Jenks finally might lose his job. In his last 7 appearances he has given up 8 earned runs. His last outing on Sunday was horrendous as he failed to get an out allowing a double, a single, then a three-run bomb. There is some hope though as Jenks’ xFIP (fielding independent pitching with normalized home run rates) is 3.07 compared to his 6.75 ERA.  But still, he won’t keep his job if can’t stop walking guys. Matt Thornton is probably the next in line as a power lefty with a K/9 at an electric 14.67. Thornton is pitching with control too with a career best 1.76 BB/9.  Scott Linebrink could potentially be in the mix, but Thornton is clearly the top candidate to replace Jenks.

• Do you know who’s not a good pitcher?  Brian Fuentes, and the Angels probably knew that when they signed Fernando Rodney. Fuentes has already given up 3 home runs and walked 4 batters in just 7.2 innings. He’s giving up a ton of fly balls with poor control so it’s no wonder that when batters make contact the ball is flying out of the park. Rodney has shown poor control as well this year, but it seems inevitable that Fuentes loses his job at some point this season.

• Huston Street will start his rehab assignment on Thursday.  He should be back on 5/25 if there are no setbacks, and he can’t come back soon enough for Colorado. Franklin Morales is now on the DL with shoulder issues. Manny Corpas pitched very well in April, but has been terrible in May allowing 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings with 1 blown save and a loss. I would guess Corpas gets another shot, but if he fails in that outing, the next chance would probably go to another reliever based on match-ups. Beimel, Belisle and Daley would be in the mix, but they have only 5 career saves combined. If Street was dropped in your league, this is obviously a grab-and-stash situation.

• Brad Lidge felt something in his elbow and was unavailable Monday. Any discomfort in the arm for a player with Lidge’s injury history is cause for alarm. With Madson on the DL, owning Jose Contreras is a must if you own Lidge. I’m expecting Lidge to miss some more time.

• Matt Capps already has 13 saves so he’s entrenched as the closer. Tyler Clippard has great numbers, but is curiously allowing plenty of inherited runners to score. These don’t affect his own ERA, but is still not a good sign for a guy that’s supposed to be a set-up man. Because of this stat quirk, Clippard actually blew three consecutive saves and gotten three wins while his ERA rose just 0.32.  He’s still striking guys out so I would assume he’s the primary back-up. Miguel Batista got a rogue save Monday because both Capps and Clippard had pitched the prior two days.

The closer carousel never seems to stop spinning in the major leagues. After a month of the season, Baltimore is still in upheaval, and there are several pitchers making their return from injury. All that and more in this week's Closer Report.

• The carousel keeps on spinning in Baltimore. The team sent Jim Johnson to the minors over the weekend leaving Alfredo Simon to pick up his second save in a week. Simon clearly is the guy to own, but he comes with problems as his BB:K ratio sits at 4:5. The back-up option would be Cla Meredith as he’s pitched immediately before Simon in his last two outings.

• Texas’ situation is technically still unsettled even though Neftali Feliz converted 3 saves last week. He had a shaky stretch where he allowed 2 ER in 3 of 4 outings, but it looks like as long as Ron Washington manages his workload, he’ll be fine. Frank Francisco is still probably worth owning as a back-up since he got 2 saves last week. Both saves were days after Feliz threw so Francisco will probably only get opportunities to prevent Feliz from getting over-worked.

•Kerry Wood began his rehab assignment Monday for AA-Akron. He will pitch twice before rejoining the Indians so expect him back by the end of the week.

• Ramon Ramirez got a rogue save for Boston against the Angels last week. This was because Papelbon had pitched three of the previous four nights. Daniel Bard had pitched the previous two nights as well; nothing to worry about here.

• Last week I listed no one as the back-up to Carlos Marmol because of the lack of a real candidate. Now Lou Piniella has said new reliever Carlos Zambrano would be the back-up closer. This gives Big Z a very small boost in value until he reclaims a starting job, but not much. Marmol still has a strong hold on 9th inning duties.

• Brad Lidge is back from the disabled list, but not quite back to closing games. Manager Charlie Manuel said he wanted to ease Lidge back into the role, which is probably a good idea since Lidge gave up a home run in his return appearance on Friday. Manuel also said Jose Contreras would be the interim closer with Ryan Madson on the DL. This situation is fluid since it’s possible Lidge never gets “eased back in” to the closer role considering how terrible he was in 2009 and his injury problems already this season. Nelson Figueroa picked up a rogue save in the middle of last week in the 11th inning, but shouldn’t factor in to the closer situation just yet. There is no timetable for Madson’s return so Contreras will probably pick up a few saves in the coming days. He’s probably worth adding at least for this week.

• Brian Wilson missed a few days last week with a groin issue leading to a save for Jeremy Affeldt on Friday. The injury though is reportedly a non-issue now for Wilson. Affeldt though is clearly the next in line.

• Juan Gutierrez also picked up a rogue save last Wednesday with a perfect 11th inning against Chicago.

• A minor miracle occurred Sunday in San Francisco. Rockies manager Jim Tracy actually played for the win rather than for the save bringing in Franklin Morales in a higher leverage 8th inning spot rather than hold him back for a potential save. Colorado led the Giants by 4 runs in the 8th, but with runners on the corners and Pablo Sandoval on-deck, Tracy brought in Morales. Morales struck out two batters, and Manny Corpas got the final three outs in a much lower leverage situation. This was not a save situation, but illustrated how all managers should be using their “closers.”

• The situation with Trevor Hoffman still isn’t “safe” even though he did convert a save last Saturday without incident. The back-up is still LaTroy Hawkins not Carlos Villanueva. That was the intention of management and the coaching staff when they signed him this offseason.