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This weekend, Wes Brown and Chris Smalling will start at the center of Manchester United’s defense. Vidic? No, Vidic is suspended. Ferdinand? No, Ferdinand is injured. Wes Brown and Chris Smalling will partner up at the center of Manchester United’s defense as the Red Devils play… er, who do they play this weekend, again? Liverpool. The North West derby at Anfield? Holy Kenny! Liverpool have a shot at United without Vidic and Ferdinand at Anfield? This should be rather exciting for Reds fans, no? Yes, for Reds fans, Gunners fans, Spurs Fans, Blues fans (Chelsea and City), EPL fans, just about all football fans.
After Tuesday’s loss at Stamford Bridge, Manchester United are 4 points above Arsenal at the top of the English Premier League table, but the Gunners have an extra match in hand. Assuming Arsenal win their match in hand (I acknowledge this is a rather imbecilic assumption in this season’s EPL), the Gunners would be only 1 point back of Manchester United. With that thought in the back of their minds, Manchester United must travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool in a rivalry both clubs recognize as their grandest. After all, Liverpool and Manchester United are the two most successful English clubs by a rather large margin.
Liverpool and Manchester United have combined for 36 League titles, 8 European Cups (Champions League), 3 UEFA Cups (Europa League), 18 FA Cups, 11 League Cups (Carling Cup), 33 Community Shields, 4 European Super Cups, 1 Cup Winners’ Cup, 1 Intercontinental Cup, and 1 Club World Cup. Amazingly, Liverpool and Manchester United have collected 116 trophies in all, and the trophy haul is split 58 to 58. Also, of their shared 36 League titles, the clubs are level at 18 each. With Arsenal, who have a mere 13 league titles, being the only other club with more than 10 league titles, these clubs can (and do) disrespectfully argue which one of the two really is “the Greatest English Football Club.”
Whereas Manchester United amassed a collection of 11 English Premier League titles over the past 2 decades, Liverpool have not won the league since the 1989-90 season. During that season, Kenny Dalglish served the Reds as player and manager. King Kenny, as he was affectionately called by the Reds faithful, returned to manage Liverpool this season. Over the last 20 seasons, Liverpool’s dominant shouts of being “the Greatest English Football Club” have lost some of their steam as Sir Alex Ferguson created a dynasty of dominance to challenge Liverpool’s long standing lead on league titles. Sunday’s match, ofcourse, is about much more than 3 points.
Sunday is as much about winning the league as it is about winning the 3 available points for both sides. A win for the Red Devils at Anfield against King Kenny’s men would be a fitting result as United round the last curve and enter the final straightaway toward a record breaking 19th English League title. However, a loss at Anfield on Sunday would do well to not only keep Liverpool’s Champions League dreams alive but also to place an unexpected hurdle in United’s path. With Arsenal only a step behind United, that hurdle may be the obstacle that obstructs United from crossing the finish line first and winning a 19th league title.
The main story entering the tie has been that United are without their two best defenders: Vidic and Ferdinand. Nemanja Vidic was the only player to have appeared in all 28 of Manchester United’s league matches this season. However, the Serbian center-half saw red just before the final whistle on Tuesday. A trip to Anfield was never an easy proposition for any English side, but playing with Wes Brown and Chris Smalling, who have combined for a total of 9 starts between them this season (and never together), as the center-half pairing poses a plethora of problems for United.
The other major story surrounding Sunday’s derby is whether £35 million ($57 million) transfer Andy Carroll will finally debut with Liverpool after coming over from Newcastle in January. Reds supporters view Smalling and Brown as perfect targets for the 22 year old striker to use his imposing size and take advantage. However, since Carroll has not appeared in a Premier League match for over 2 months due to a thigh injury, a start for the England international is not likely—however, an appearance is deemed probable.
Let’s Get a Bit More Technical
Dalglish’s Liverpool have regularly played a 3-5-2 in recent weeks. In this formation, Luis Suarez and Dirk Kuyt partner as the forwards with Raul Miereles pushing up as a center attacking midfielder. Steven Gerrard shades to the right side behind Miereles and Lucas plays deeper behind Gerrard shading to the left. Lucas plays just in front of the 3 man defense in a ball winning defensive midfielder role. In this formation, Glen Johnson and Martin Kelly are the regular choice wings of the 5 man midfield. Depending on how attacking Kenny prefers the wings to be, Kenny may replace Kelly with Joe Cole or Maxi Rodriguez.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United were one of the more predictable sides to choose entering a difficult away fixture. Sir Alex would consistently roll out his 4-5-1 and that would be that. On Tuesday, however, Sir Alex played a 4-4-2 at Chelsea, resulting in an attacking and entertaining match. Unfortunately, with Smalling and Brown as the center back pairing, Sir Alex cannot be criticized for playing a compact formation rather than a 4-4-2. With Giggs and Nani on the wings and Fletcher, Gibson, Carrick, and Scholes available to fill the middle, United have the personnel to boss the middle of the park. However, the problem with playing a 4-5-1 is that Sir Alex has Rooney, Berbatov, and Chicharito fighting for 1 attacking place. Who to choose?
Rooney and Chicharito started the match at Stamford Bridge and played well together. Rooney gave United the lead in that match, and he would have to be the first choice for Sunday in a 4-5-1 setup. Chicharito has been Sir Alex’s favored partner with Wayne Rooney in United’s last 2 matches. The Mexican scored 2 goals at Wigan last weekend and contributed in United’s impressive first half on Tuesday. His withdrawal and Dimitar Berbatov’s introduction correlated with Chelsea’s late surge. Berbatov, who is the freshest of the 3 attackers, scored a spectacular hat-trick against Liverpool the last time these teams met. The Bulgarian also leads the Premier League with 19 goals, but he is currently Sir Alex’s third choice in the Premier League.
AccuScore Simulation Analysis
AccuScore, the premier sports forecasting service, performed simulations using every reliable sports statistic to provide some deeper insights into which striker Manchester United should start on Sunday. For our purposes, AccuScore assumed Van der Saar, Evra, Smalling, Brown, and O’Shea started (Rafael has not started in 2 weeks and has only played 90 minutes once in the last month) in the defense. Further, AccuScore held Darren Fletcher, Paul Scholes, Michael Carrick, Nani and Ryan Giggs constant in a 5 man midfield. Finally, AccuScore performed 10,000 simulations with Rooney, Berbatov, and Chicharito each taking turns to play 90 minutes against the 11 man Liverpool squad described earlier.
When Wayne Rooney was chosen as the lone striker in this setup: Manchester United scored an average of 1.46 goals over 10,000 simulations. Rooney was the leading scorer and scored in 44% of simulations. Nani was the 2nd most likely scorer in the match, and the Portuguese winger scored in 32% of simulations. ManU won 46% of simulations, lost 26% of simulations, and drew 28% of simulations with Rooney as the starter.
When Berbatov was chosen to lead the line: United averaged 1.75 goals over 10,000 simulations. Berbatov scored in 56% of simulations, and Nani’ was the next likely scorer, as he scored in 33% of simulations. With Berbatov starting, Manchester United won 52% of simulations, lost 21%, and drew 26% .
With Chicharito, who has 9 goals in 9 starts, stepping in as the only forward: Manchester United averaged 1.53 goals over 10,000 simulations. Hernandez scored in 40 % of simulations, and Nani was, once again, the next most likely scorer, and Nani scored in 36% of simulations. With Hernandez, Manchester United won 47% of simulations, Liverpool won 25% of simulations, and the teams drew in 28% of simulations. .
Conclusions:
According to AccuScore’s Super computer, Dimitar Berbatov was the best choice to lead Manchester United’s line in a 4-5-1 formation. Berbatov was not only the most likely to score of the 3 striking options, but the Bulgarian also gave United the highest probability of winning the match (56%). Likely, AccuScore favors the tall striker due to his earlier performance against Liverpool and his 19 goals on the season. Further, United were undefeated for the months Rooney spent on the sidelines, so United were able to show their winning quality with Berbatov leading the line.
A curious byproduct of these simulations was the statistical morphing of Nani’s role alongside each of the 3 strikers. In all 3 scenarios, Nani was the 2nd most likely scorer in the match. However, Nani’s goal scoring probability was highest when Chicharito was in the lineup, hinting at his habit of shouldering more of the goal-scoring burden when Berbatov and Rooney were not on the pitch. Nani’s increased productivity not only increased his personal scoring probability in simulations, but it led to United averaging more goals as a team with Chicharito starting compared to Rooney starting.
AccuScore’s simulations are based solely on statistical data, so this does not mean Berbatov is a “better” player than Rooney, but this does mean that on a purely statistical level, Dimitar Berbatov provides Manchester United the best chance to score and to win against Liverpool on Sunday.
Some More Match Notes
Liverpool FC have only lost 2 league matches at Anfield this season and none in 2011. Since Kenny Dalglish took over as manager in early January, the club have won 4, lost 2, and drawn 2 in the Premier League. However, last weekend’s 3-1 loss at relegation-zoners West Ham United was a demoralizing stutter in King Kenny’s reign. Incidentally, Dalglish’s first match upon returning to Merceyside in January was Liverpool’s FA Cup tie against Manchester United at Old Trafford. That match was a 1-0 defeat for the Reds and included a Steven Gerrard red card and a Ryan Giggs goal in the 2nd minute. Liverpool were eliminated from the FA Cup with the loss.
Manchester United suffered only their second loss of the season at Chelsea on Tuesday. With United still having a trip to Arsenal and a home match against Chelsea remaining in league, Sunday’s fixture possess 3 important points for the visiting side...Dimitar Berbatov has not started a match since the incredibly lackluster performance at Marseille. Further, Berbatov has not played a full 90 minutes in over a month...Gary Neville was spotted in the paying visitors section at Stamford Bridge (not a luxury box). You can bet your house that he will be at the travelling visitors section at Anfield, as well. At least the former United captain is paying his own way these days...Finally, Sir Alex was hit with an FA Charge following his post match rant directed at Martin Atkinson. After the rant, Ferguson has been boycotting MUTV.
AccuScore Pick
AccuScore finds value on Manchester United winning at +160 (2.600)
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