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Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.