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Joakim Noah has been playing for several weeks now with an injured thumb. Both he and the Bulls however have deemed it necessary now to undergo surgery in order to be ready for the playoffs.  The center is expected to miss up to 8-10 weeks of action which would put him out until March.

Noah has been a huge factor in the Bulls’ improvement this season averaging 14 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a night. He ranks 5th in the NBA in boards, and is one of the best defenders in the league.  His loss is a big one for Chicago.  The Bulls are projected to be about four games worse without Noah in the lineup for 10 weeks, but luckily the Central division and the teams behind them are relatively week. They are still projected to maintain their 4th position in the East.

Chicago only had Carlos Boozer and Noah together for nine games winning the last seven in a row. Luckily the upcoming schedule lightens up now for the Bulls, and the timeline for recovery should allow for at least a month of games to re-assimilate Noah in preparation for the playoffs.

Atlanta swingman Joe Johnson will undergo surgery on his elbow and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks of action.  Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring and assists at 17.1 and 5.2 per game.  Below are AccuScore’s season projections if Johnson is out until mid-January.

Without Johnson out, Jamal Crawford or Mo Evans will move to the starting lineup and further weaken the bench.  Atlanta is projected to lose 1.6 wins on average in the standings over the next 6 weeks.  This might not even matter in the long run however as the Hawks were projected as the 6th seed in the East before the injury, and are still projected to finish in the same spot in the standings.

Andrew Bogut suffered a gruesome fall Saturday night resulting in a sprained wrist, broken hand, and dislocated elbow. The center had been having an All-Star caliber, and was helping lead the Bucks to a surprisingly successful season.

With only six games remaining in the regular season, the impact of the loss of Bogut is minimal. Milwaukee is currently 6th in the East, ½ game behind the Heat. With or without their center, the Bucks were projected to finish in that spot.

Per game however, the impact of the loss of Bogut is readily apparent. Bogut was averaging 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, and was one of the main reasons for Milwaukee’s terrific defense (6th in defensive efficiency) by anchoring the middle. The Bucks are 10% less likely to win a night without Bogut virtually ending any hopes for a first round upset.

Using the Playoff Simulator, AccuScore has the injury costing the Bucks any real chance of making noise in the playoffs. Their chances of a first round win went from a reasonable 21.2% to just 10.1% in a forecast match-up against Atlanta.

Milwaukee had beaten Atlanta two weeks ago at home and went to overtime in a road loss at the end of February. NBA fans have been robbed of a potentially exciting first round series because of this unfortunate injury.

Before Tony Parker’s injury, the Spurs were projected to finish 6th in the West with 49.3 wins – just ahead of the Thunder and the Blazers.  Now with the news that Parker will miss 6 weeks with a wrist injury San Antonio is projected to finish – 6th in the West.

Despite losing Parker, a 3-time All-Star, for possibly the rest of the regular the forecast for San Antonio does not change significantly. His absence will mean more minutes for George Hill and Roger Mason with Manu Ginobili assuming more ball-handling duties. Keith Bogans and Malik Hairston could see increased minutes on the wing as well. 

The non-change in the forecast is less an indictment on Parker – currently averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists – and more circumstances beyond his influence at this point in the season. The Spurs are basically locked into one of the final three playoff spots in the West. They currently sit 1.0 game behind Oklahoma City and 1.5 ahead of Portland.  More importantly, the Spurs are 5.5 games ahead of 9th place Memphis.  With only 22 games remaining, it would take a complete collapse for San Antonio to fall out of playoff position.  The presence of Hill, Ginobili, and Tim Duncan makes that scenario extremely unlikely.

As you can see, Memphis has only a 3% chance of passing one of the three teams ahead of it including San Antonio. In the West, only the seeding is left to be determined at this point.

San Antonio’s closing schedule is very tough featuring road games against Boston, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Orlando, and the Lakers. The upside though is that San Antonio would be underdogs in all these road games even with a healthy Parker. The home schedule is no cake-walk either with the Cavs, Lakers, and Magic but the situation here is similar as well.  The overall forecast remains the same so Spurs fans shouldn’t worry about the rest of the regular season too much.  Instead, the team just needs to get Parker healthy for the playoffs.

Jason Terry is reportedly out 7-10 weeks after suffering an orbital fracture Wednesday night. The Dallas guard took an inadvertent elbow to the face from Corey Brewer, and will leave a hole for his team in the backcourt.

The Mavericks had just acquired Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington and hadn’t yet gelled as a unit. Now they likely won’t get that chance with this recent injury. That is disappointing as the Mavs were projected to improve significantly with a full lineup with a forecast to win more than 70 percent of their remaining games. For reference, only the Lakers and Cavs had played better than .700 ball this season.

A seven-week timetable would put Terry out until the end of the regular season, a span of 20 games. If the injury keeps him more along the lines of 10 weeks, it would extend into the playoffs giving the Mavs even more reason to worry.

Without Terry, Dallas is still in good shape. AccuScore still projects the Mavs to finish second in the West ahead of Denver and Utah despite the loss of Terry. The Mavericks are projected to win 12.7 games over their final 20 contests compared 14.1 with a healthy Terry. The big blow here is the fact that with Terry combined with the acquisitions of Butler and Haywood, Dallas had the potential to be an elite team. Now it might be merely good, which could be the difference between a potential Finals appearance and a second-round exit. With Terry out, Dallas will now be much more reliant on J.J. Barea and Rodrique Beaubois. Butler will also likely spend ample time in the backcourt. As with any injury, there is always the chance that role players like Barea will be exposed with increased playing time.

On a per game basis, Dallas is now 7 percent more likely to lose from now to the end of the season. This is significant because of the relatively easy schedule Dallas has over the next three weeks. If Terry can beat this projected timetable, it would do the team a great deal of good. Starting March 25, the Mavericks have dates with Portland twice, Orlando, Denver, Memphis, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City. If Terry were to miss only 10 games, the impact of his loss would decrease to -4.5 percent a night.

Since a disastrous 3-8 start that led to the firing of head coach Byron Scott, the Hornets have gone 23-13 to take over the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Now however comes the hard part as superstar point guard Chris Paul is expected to miss an extended period of time with a cartilage tear in his left knee.  He is expected to undergo arthroscopic surgeryin the next couple of days.

The timetable of this injury varies with reports ranging from 1-2 months.  Before Paul was injured, AccuScore projected the Hornets to finish with a record of 45-37 with a 60% chance of making the postseason.  With Paul out 1 month, the Hornets are projected to be 2 games worse at 43-39 with a 49% chance of making the playoffs.  Under this scenario, New Orleans would still be right in the thick of the race and could possibly survive this injury.  If however Paul is out 2 months, the Hornets are probably doomed as they are projected to be yet another 2 games worse at 41-41.  A .500 record won’t cut in the West, and leaves the team with just a 34% chance at the postseason.

Without the benefit of a top-20 pick, the Hornets quietly had one of the best hauls in 2009 by selecting UCLA point guard Darren Collison and acquiring LSU scorer Marcus Thornton, and it’s a good thing they did.  Collison recently set the team’s rookie assist mark with 18, and Thornton has recently joined the starting lineup averaging 12.2 points and shooting 42% from three-point range in the month of January.

Both rookies will be heavily relied upon now with Paul out for an extended period.  While both have shown flashes of brilliance they both will now have to navigate the tough Western Conference without the steadying presence of a veteran.  Thornton has only recently joined the starting five after a trade sent Devin Brown to Chicago.  Bobby Brown was also sent to the Clippers.  Both moves were for salary cap reasons leaving the two rookies to fend for themselves.  The only other guard currently on the roster is Morris Peterson.  He played just 15 minutes all of January prior to Saturday.  The playoff hopes of New Orleans rest on a pair of rookies in the backcourt, not exactly a recipe for success in the NBA.

The bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers is that point guard Mo Williams sprained his shoulder 1/19 against Toronto.  While Williams won’t need surgery, he will miss 4-6 weeks.  The good news is that the Cavs beat both the Lakers at home and the Thunder on the road without him.

Those two wins against quality competition without Williams in the lineup are not surprising.  AccuScore simulations projected as much.  Before the injury with a healthy Mo at PG, AccuScore projected Cleveland to win 60 games and nab the No. 1 seed out East.  Without him, AccuScore projected Cleveland to win 59.7 games, still a healthy 2 games ahead of Boston for the East’s best record. 

AccuScore expected Cleveland to be just fine in the backcourt through increased minutes for Delonte West and Boobie Gibson.  LeBron James would also be able to pick up the slack by handling the ball more often and initiating the offense, something he already does often for Cleveland.  West is shooting 39 percent from three-point range while Gibson is shooting a sparkling 47 percent from distance (45.7 percent overall).

The bad news is that now West has suffered a broken finger on his left (shooting) hand, and missed the Oklahoma City game.  Cleveland still managed to pull that game out on the shoulders of James, which will likely need to continue going forward.  One good sign for Cleveland is that the Cavs have yet to go out and sign another guard even on a 10-day contract.  That may signal that the front office isn’t overly concerned about West’s injury. 

As long as West is not out for an extended period like Williams, Cleveland fans shouldn’t be worried.  Cleveland has a small, but nice cushion on the Celtics and Magic for best record in the East.  The Cavs should be able to weather their backcourt injuries just fine.