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Atlanta swingman Joe Johnson will undergo surgery on his elbow and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks of action.  Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring and assists at 17.1 and 5.2 per game.  Below are AccuScore’s season projections if Johnson is out until mid-January.

Without Johnson out, Jamal Crawford or Mo Evans will move to the starting lineup and further weaken the bench.  Atlanta is projected to lose 1.6 wins on average in the standings over the next 6 weeks.  This might not even matter in the long run however as the Hawks were projected as the 6th seed in the East before the injury, and are still projected to finish in the same spot in the standings.

Manager Joe Girardi announced Thursday that Phil Hughes is the last man standing in the competition for the final spot in the Yankees rotation. The 23-year-old righty beat out Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Mitre and Joba Chamberlain for the job.

With Hughes in the rotation, the Yankees become even bigger favorites in the AL East and have the highest forecasted playoff probability in baseball. New York is now projected to win nearly 97 games with a 72 percent chance to win the division. That is a +2.4 win increase and a substantial 12.8 percent boost in the division probability compared to having Chamberlain in the rotation.

Hughes started seven games in 2009 before grabbing hold of the 8th inning set-up role. As a reliever, he blossomed striking out more than 10 batters per 9 IP and cutting down his walks. His much-discussed teammate Chamberlain will now move back to the bullpen, where many think he should have been all along. While Hughes could be expected to regress some as a starter from his stellar 2009 numbers with the expanded role, Chamberlain should reasonably be expected to perform much better out of the bullpen. AccuScore projections show this is a smart decision by Girardi.

The Ravens made the AFC Championship Game in 2008 and won one playoff game in 2009 without a true #1 Wide Receiver.  WR Derrick Mason is a solid WR, but at 36 years old, the 5’10” Mason is not in Boldin’s class.  While Mason deserves credit for having 73 catches, 1028 yards and 7 TDs in 2009, one could argue that this shows just how good Ray Rice and Joe Flacco can be.  They are good enough to help Mason nearly make the Pro Bowl despite his obvious limitations.

To evaluate Anquan Boldin’s value we went back to the 2009 Season and “re-simulated” the entire season.  The Ravens were 9-7 in 2009, but in our re-simulation they averaged 9.9 wins, made the playoffs nearly 70% of the time and won the AFC North a shade over 40% of the time.  When we added Anquan Boldin to the team and assumed Mason (a free agent) would become the #2, and the newly acquired Donte’ Stallworth #3 WRs we found that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs increased to over 76%.

If Boldin stays healthy he improves the Ravens chances of making the playoffs by over +6 percentage points.  On a per game basis he helps the Ravens average 1.4 more points and provides a +3.1 percentage point impact per game.  Just how valuable is +3.1%?  It translates to around a +2 point difference in average margin of victory.  It takes the Ravens from being a slight underdog to teams like the Colts at home, to being a slight favorite vs the Colts at home.  In other words, it could be exactly what the team needs to get over the hump in the AFC and make it to the 2011 Super Bowl.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations won 71 percent of the time (182-74 regular season, 6-4 in playoffs) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of spreads and totals check out AccuScore's Winner's Edge which has gone an impressive 14-5, 73.7 percent in the playoffs.

COLTS FAVORED

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs. 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees.

WHICH SAINTS PASS DEFENSE WILL SHOW UP?

The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100 percent and the worst at 0 percent. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90 percent. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom third in the league at 31 percent. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning.

COLTS RUN DEFENSE IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE STATS INDICATE

The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56 percent - slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for less than 100 rushing yards, the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times.

COLTS ARE FAVORED IN A SHOOTOUT THANKS TO TURNOVER MARGIN

If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.