Bringing the Heat

  • Wednesday, October 20, 2010 1:47 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Think the new super team in Miami can dominate the NBA like no other team has before?  There’s always a chance. Below are some statistical nuggets about the Heat now that they have teamed up LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. This data is as of 10/20. The season is simulated 10,000 and assumes normal health for the full roster.

Chance of winning 70+: 19.3%
Chance of winning 72+: 11.3%
Best single season record:  78-4 (1 in 10,000)
Worst single season record:  41-41 (1in 10,000)
Longest winning streak:  58 games

HEAT BIG 3 PTS AST REB STL BLK TO FG% 3P% FGA FTA
LeBron James 24.8 6.7 6.8 1.6 1.0 2.9 0.493 0.334 16.9 9.0
Dwyane Wade 23.6 6.2 4.3 1.6 1.1 3.2 0.485 0.333 16.9 8.3
Chris Bosh 19.0 1.7 8.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 0.515 0.308 13.9 5.6

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The LeBron-Wade-Bosh Super Team Scenario

  • Thursday, July 8, 2010 9:03 AM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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By Jonathan Lee and Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

The word floating around is that LeBron James, on his televised “Decision” Thursday night, will choose to sign with Miami Heat and form a super team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  This type of superstar trio is unprecedented, and would obviously make the future of the NBA very intriguing.

With the Heat having just four players under contract before LeBron (Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Beasley) we had to make assumptions based on average players that could be signed at the minimum to fill out the rest of the roster. The trio signing with an Eastern Conference team allows it rack the victories more easily as the last team with the best record, Cleveland, becomes significantly worse and creates more available “easy” wins.

Full NBA seasons were projected 10,000 times with all the current free agents moves and LeBron in Miami. Here are some interesting numbers for the Heat:

  1. The average record is 67-15, best in the NBA
  2. Best record in any simulation was 79-3 (1 in 10,000)
  3. Worst record in any simulation was 40-42
  4. Chance of winning 73+ games is 19.3% (NBA win record)
  5. Chance of winning 72+ games is 24.6% (ties Bulls win record)
  6. Chance of winning 60+ games is 79.4%

 

In our simulations when a game is a complete blowout the starters end up playing fewer minutes which limits the statistical output of this trio.  In simulations AccuScore uses player performance stats based on their career numbers so the statistical line for the three stars are comparable to previous years with a slight reduction. All three could post more impressive lines if they went for numbers, but this is unlikely.

  1. Lebron James:  27.8 Points, 7.5 Rebounds, 7.7 Assists
  2. Dwyane Wade:  27.0 Points, 4.8 Rebounds, 7.0 Assists
  3. Chris Bosh:   22.3 Points, 9.6 Rebounds, 1.8 Assists

 

2010 AccuScore NBA Playoff Preview

  • Thursday, April 15, 2010 12:46 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland has home-court advantage and that is a big factor as to why it has the best chance of winning the Eastern Conference and the NBA Championship.  AccuScore gives Cleveland a 52% of beating Orlando in the Conference Finals, but if Orlando had home-court advantage, it would have had a 56% chance of beating the Cavs.  That means finishing with the best record was worth 8% in win probability to Cleveland.

The biggest thing to note is that the top three seeds are massive favorites with each being at least 92 percent to win in the opening round.  Boston is also a pretty sizable favorite winning the series over Miami nearly 2 out of 3 times. Moving on to the 2nd round, it becomes readily apparent that the class of the East is again Orlando and Cleveland. Atlanta has had a nice season but has just a 27 percent chance of reaching the Conference Finals because the Hawks would more than likely have to go through the Magic.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

ROUND1

ROUND2

CONF

CHAMP

Cleveland Cavaliers

94.9%

77.2%

45.3%

31.0%

Orlando Magic

92.0%

70.5%

38.5%

28.7%

Atlanta Hawks

92.0%

27.1%

9.2%

3.7%

Boston Celtics

65.1%

14.6%

5.0%

1.9%

Miami Heat

34.9%

7.2%

1.7%

0.4%

Charlotte Bobcats

8.0%

1.6%

0.2%

0.0%

Milwaukee Bucks

8.0%

0.8%

0.1%

0.0%

Chicago Bulls

5.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.0%

WESTERN CONFERENCE
The West probabilities are much more even across the board because of the quality of every team in the field.  All eight seeds won at least 50 games with the Lakers finishing just 7 games ahead of Oklahoma City.  By contrast, Cleveland finished 20 games ahead of 8th seeded Chicago.  The late-season surge by Phoenix was key because now it is the second overall favorite in the West behind L.A. The Lakers, despite playing poorly down the stretch, are still the clear favorites at nearly 37 percent to win the conference.

AccuScore is predicting a first-round upset with the Spurs getting the slight 50.8% chance of beating the Mavericks in the first round.  Interestingly, the Mavs still have a better shot than San Antonio of winning the West and the title despite being slight first-round underdogs. This is because AccuScore believes Dallas matches up better against the rest of the top teams in the conference than San Antonio. The Spurs, though, are favored in this one particular match-up.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

ROUND1

ROUND2

CONF

CHAMP

Los Angeles Lakers

90.6%

58.7%

36.8%

13.5%

Phoenix Suns

82.2%

41.4%

20.0%

6.6%

Dallas Mavericks

49.2%

26.9%

12.9%

4.8%

San Antonio Spurs

50.8%

27.3%

12.5%

4.4%

Denver Nuggets

60.4%

23.1%

10.2%

2.8%

Utah Jazz

39.6%

15.6%

6.4%

2.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder

9.4%

2.6%

0.7%

0.2%

Portland Trail Blazers

17.8%

4.3%

0.6%

0.1%

WEST IS BEST, BUT CHAMPIONSHIP LIKELY GOES EAST
AccuScore simulated each team playing every other team home and away (870 total combinations).  The eight Eastern Conference playoff teams won 63.9% of simulations.  The eight Western Conference playoff teams won 73% of simulations.  The Western Conference playoff teams are clearly better collectively based on simulation winning percentage.

The West may be the stronger conference, but there is a 66% chance that the NBA champion comes out of the East because there is such a high chance that Cleveland or Orlando reaches the Finals and both teams will have home-court advantage. This gives both Cleveland and Orlando a solid advantage over any potential opponent in the Finals including the Lakers.

WIN IN FINALS

CAVALIERS

MAGIC

Los Angeles Lakers

66%

69%

Phoenix Suns

69%

77%

Dallas Mavericks

66%

73%

San Antonio Spurs

70%

72%

Denver Nuggets

77%

76%

Utah Jazz

76%

79%

Oklahoma City Thunder

84%

83%

Portland Trail Blazers

93%

93%

One other thing to note is the fact that Orlando is actually a bigger favorite than Cleveland against everyone except Denver and Oklahoma City. The Magic appear to be underrated heading into the postseason.

HOTTEST TRENDS IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS
AccuScore racked up an impressive 1193-1071, 52.7% +1490 on all point spread and totals picks this season.  Few people bet on every single game, so we do track key trends and these are some you should be aware of heading into the playoffs.  Our NBA Advisor product updates these trends and makes pick recommendations using these trends.  Make sure to sign up now.

SEASON LONG TRENDS
POINT SPREADS
Simulation and Betting line is < 2 Pts Different:   272-202, 57.4% +4980
Home Team is Favored:  422-344, 55.1% +4360
Eastern Conference Games:  188-158, 54.3% +1420
Top Team Trends

ON THE ROAD

R

W

ACC

AT HOME

R

W

ACC

Atlanta Hawks

23

15

60.5%

Boston Celtics

23

13

63.9%

Charlotte Bobcats

20

17

54.1%

Charlotte Bobcats

23

15

60.5%

Cleveland Cavaliers

22

17

56.4%

Denver Nuggets

22

13

62.9%

Dallas Mavericks

25

14

64.1%

Miami Heat

20

14

58.8%

LA Lakers

24

16

60.0%

Milwaukee Bucks

23

16

59.0%

Miami Heat

23

15

60.5%

Orlando Magic

22

16

57.9%

Phoenix Suns

22

17

56.4%

San Antonio Spurs

18

15

54.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder

29

10

74.4%

Utah Jazz

23

12

65.7%

TOTALS
Simulation and Betting line is 4.5 to 6 Pts Different:  171-143, 54.5% +1370
Total Betting Line is 205.5 or More:  207-162, 56.1% +2880
Southeast Division Game Totals:  25-13, 65.8% +1070
Western Conference Game Totals:  202-174, 53.7% +1060

ON THE ROAD

R

W

ACC

AT HOME

R

W

ACC

Atlanta Hawks

25

16

61.0%

Dallas Mavericks

27

13

67.5%

Boston Celtics

21

18

53.9%

Denver Nuggets

23

17

57.5%

Charlotte Bobcats

20

15

57.1%

LA Lakers

21

18

53.9%

Dallas Mavericks

24

17

58.5%

Miami Heat

20

17

54.1%

Denver Nuggets

24

16

60.0%

Milwaukee Bucks

25

13

65.8%

LA Lakers

23

17

57.5%

Orlando Magic

27

12

69.2%

Miami Heat

25

15

62.5%

Portland Trail Blazers

21

17

55.3%

Milwaukee Bucks

21

19

52.5%

Orlando Magic

26

15

63.4%

San Antonio Spurs

20

17

54.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder

21

18

53.9%

 

Three-Way Deal Sends Kevin Martin to Rockets, T-Mac to Knicks, Landry to Kings

  • Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:28 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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First, the moving parts:

Houston:  Kevin Martin, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong, 2012 protected first-rounder
New York:  Tracy McGrady, Sergio Rodriguez
Sacramento:  Carl Landry, Larry Hughes, Joey Dorsey

The Knicks also previously sent Darko to Minnesota and waived the incoming Brian Cardinal.  J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker are added to the bench in the Nate Robinson deal, which also sent Marcus Landry to Boston.

Houston looks like a big winner here getting Martin and lots of draft considerations while unloading McGrady.  That did not come without a price however having to take on Jeffries’ contract while losing Landry.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

28

26

51.9%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

42.4

39.6

51.7%

1.2%

26.4%

9TH

After Trade Deadline

42.2

39.8

51.5%

1.0%

26.0%

10TH

Trade Impact

-0.2

0.2

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.4%

-1

Per Game Impact

-0.7%

 

 

 

 

 

The trade hurts the Rockets on paper mostly because of how terrific Landry has been this season.  He should garner serious consideration for Sixth Man of the year.  Martin, though, gives Houston an über-efficient scorer at the two which will also allow Trevor Ariza to shift to a more comfortable 3rd-scorer role.  Martin has not been great this season, but has been slowed by injuries. 

Overall, the trade actually pushes Houston from 9th to 10th in the competitive Western Conference, but 2010 is not the goal.  Next season is the target for Houston when presumably Yao will be back allowing Scola, Ariza, Hayes and the like to play much more defined roles.  A backcourt of Martin and Brooks might be tough to pass defensively, but the presence of Ariza and Shane Battier as a pair of perimeter stoppers helps there.  Jeffries actually can help here as well.  Even though his contract is terrible, he has plenty of value as a defensive role player.

NEW YORK KNICKS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

19

34

35.8%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

31.3

50.7

38.2%

0.0%

1.9%

10TH

After Trade Deadline

29.7

52.3

36.2%

0.0%

0.7%

10TH

Trade Impact

-1.6

1.6

-2.0%

0.0%

-1.2%

--

Per Game Impact

-5.5%

 

 

 

 

 

New York is projected to be -5.5 percent worse per game this season losing 1.6 more games than before all these moves.  That is terrific news for Utah which owns the Knicks’ first-round pick.  As for the Knicks, their dream scenario is now possible: two maximum salary slots available for this summer.  It cost them their 2012 pick, and maybe their 2011 pick as well (Houston has the right to swap picks as long as it isn’t No.1 overall). 

Also, the moves also probably will end up costing David Lee because he will be a free agent and would need to be renounced in order to sign two max guys.  Just over half a season was enough for the team to deem Jordan Hill expendable marking yet another New York mistake.  T-Mac might get a chance to prove himself now on the court, and Rodriguez will get yet another to chance to prove he can play at this level.  New York saved about $1 million extra by sending out Darko.  The guess is that David Kahn just wanted to experience Darko for himself.  There is no other explanation for Minnesota.

The Kings got cap relief, and a great young (and affordable) forward in Landry.  His contract has an option for $3 million next season.  While Sacramento won’t be a destination for Wade, LeBron, Bosh and the like, the oodles of space does make them a player for mid-tier guys and as a facilitator of future trades.  The Kings can now build around a core of Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Landry, and Jason Thompson.  Not bad at all. 

Landry’s productivity actually improves Sacramento’s outlook for this season by +1.2 wins, or 4.3 percent per game, quite the impact for a former second round pick.

SACRMENTO KINGS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

18

36

33.3%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

28.8

53.2

35.1%

0.0%

0.0%

13TH

After Trade Deadline

30.0

52.0

36.6%

0.0%

0.0%

12TH

Trade Impact

1.2

-1.2

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

+1

Per Game Impact

4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

Cavs Pull Off 3-Team Deal, Acquire Antawn Jamison

  • Wednesday, February 17, 2010 1:11 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Cleveland:  Antawn Jamison, Sebastian Telfair
Los Angeles Clippers:  Drew Gooden
Washington: Zydrunas Ilgasukas, Al Thornton, Brian Skinner, 1st round pick (from CLE)

In the biggest deal so far this trading season, the Cavaliers got LeBron James another sidekick by acquiring Antawn Jamison from the Wizards.  The kicker here is that the team didn’t even have to give up J.J. Hickson to do it.  Zydrunas Ilgauskas goes to Washington, but the Cavs operate better with Varejao at center so this loss of Big Z is immaterial (except in Nike puppet commercials). 

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

43

11

79.6%

--

--

--

Projected before trade

62.4

19.6

76.1%

100.0%

100.0%

1ST

Projected after trade

62.9

19.1

76.7%

100.0%

100.0%

1ST

Trade Impact

0.5

-0.5

0.6%

0.0%

0.0%

--

Per Game Impact

1.8%

 

 

 

 

 

The trade bumps up Cleveland’s projected record to a tidy 63-19 for the season and the projected leader for homecourt throughout the playoffs (+1.8 percent per game).  This ends any talk of Amare to the Cavs.  One reason why GM Danny Ferry would prefer this trade is the ability to keep Hickson in the fold.  Jamison also might be a better fit at power forward in a small(er) lineup with Varejao and James in the frontcourt.  Jamison is also a very low turnover guy, and is known as a good team player.  He won’t upset the nice balance the Cavs are cultivated thus far this season.  One question Cleveland will have to answer is the glut they have now at power forward.  Hickson, Varejao, Jamison and the soon-to-return Leon Powe will be fighting it out for minutes.  Also, if the Cavs don’t win the title, they will have to wonder forever if Amare would have gotten them across the finish line.

Washington is in full-scale sell mode shedding every salary they can.  The team needs to rebuild completely starting through the draft.  Even if the pick they pick-up from Cleveland is low, it is still a valuable asset.  Every loss this season also means more ping-pong balls in the John Wall lottery.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

17

33

34.0%

--

--

--

Projected before trade

28.1

53.9

34.3%

0.0%

0.3%

14TH

Projected after trade

25.7

56.3

31.3%

0.0%

0.0%

14TH

Trade Impact

-2.4

2.4

-2.9%

0.0%

-0.3%

+1

Per Game Impact

-7.5%

 

 

 

 

 

The Clippers had nothing to gain (personnel-wise) by becoming a part of this deal.  They did it to clear enough salary space to create a max-salary slot for this upcoming season.  Drew Gooden is probably going to be waived, so the projected impact of this trade for this season on the Clippers is immaterial.  What it does do is clear Thornton and Telfair from the books leaving Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman on the roster for 2010-11.  DeAndre Jordan has a team option that will probably be exercised.  I wonder who is available that would fit at the small forward spot and will be a free agent?  Hmmm….

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

21

32

39.6%

--

--

--

Projected before trade

29.3

52.7

35.7%

0.0%

0.0%

13TH

Projected after trade

30.1

51.9

36.7%

0.0%

0.0%

 

Trade Impact

0.8

-0.8

1.0%

0.0%

0.0%

+1

Per Game Impact

2.8%

 

 

 

 

 

Mo Williams Injury Impact

  • Monday, January 25, 2010 11:01 AM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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The bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers is that point guard Mo Williams sprained his shoulder 1/19 against Toronto.  While Williams won’t need surgery, he will miss 4-6 weeks.  The good news is that the Cavs beat both the Lakers at home and the Thunder on the road without him.

Those two wins against quality competition without Williams in the lineup are not surprising.  AccuScore simulations projected as much.  Before the injury with a healthy Mo at PG, AccuScore projected Cleveland to win 60 games and nab the No. 1 seed out East.  Without him, AccuScore projected Cleveland to win 59.7 games, still a healthy 2 games ahead of Boston for the East’s best record. 

 

Projected Wins

Difference

w/ Williams

60

---

w/o Williams

59.7

-0.3

AccuScore expected Cleveland to be just fine in the backcourt through increased minutes for Delonte West and Boobie Gibson.  LeBron James would also be able to pick up the slack by handling the ball more often and initiating the offense, something he already does often for Cleveland.  West is shooting 39 percent from three-point range while Gibson is shooting a sparkling 47 percent from distance (45.7 percent overall).

The bad news is that now West has suffered a broken finger on his left (shooting) hand, and missed the Oklahoma City game.  Cleveland still managed to pull that game out on the shoulders of James, which will likely need to continue going forward.  One good sign for Cleveland is that the Cavs have yet to go out and sign another guard even on a 10-day contract.  That may signal that the front office isn’t overly concerned about West’s injury. 

As long as West is not out for an extended period like Williams, Cleveland fans shouldn’t be worried.  Cleveland has a small, but nice cushion on the Celtics and Magic for best record in the East.  The Cavs should be able to weather their backcourt injuries just fine.