ALCS Preview: Yankees vs. Rangers

  • Thursday, October 14, 2010 11:40 AM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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By Jonathan Lee, AccuScore.com

The Yankees won’t have home-field for the ALCS, but that might not matter as they are the slight favorites to win the pennant and return to the World Series. Pitching will clearly play a huge role in the outcome of this series.

Rangers vs Yankees SERIES GAME 1 GAME 2 GAME 3 GAME 4 GAME 5 GAME 6 GAME 7
Texas 49% 50% 52% 54% 40% 38% 48% 60%
New York 51% 50% 48% 46% 60% 62% 52% 40%

By being pushed to limit by the Rays, the Rangers were unable to save Cliff Lee for the start of the ALCS. Instead, Lee will start Game 3 with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis squaring off against CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. Wilson and Lewis are actually projected to fare very well in the first two games at home while Lee starting the third game puts him in line to pitch a potential Game 7. Lee in the deciding final game of the series is obviously a big advantage (projected 60/40 over Andy Pettite) but it does preclude the possibility of three starts in the series or an appearance out of the bullpen.

The biggest source of angst for Yankee fans is probably the inclusion of A.J. Burnett as the fourth starter in the rotation. That fear might be slightly misplaced as New York is a 60 percent favorite in Burnett’s projected Game 4 start at home because he will be going against Tommy Hunter. While Hunter has much better season-long numbers than Burnett, he doesn’t have strikeout stuff (4.78 K/9) which is a problem against a lineup as potent as New York’s. Burnett at the very least has the talent edge, and has performed in the playoffs in the past.

Overall, Texas has the edge in the first three games of the series, and will need to jump on the Yankees to have a good shot at advancing. Lee is the trump card for the Rangers in a potential Game 7, but New York has a large forecasted advantage in games 4 through 6. The Yankees will try to end the series before it goes the distance.

Derrek Lee's Impact on Atlanta

  • Wednesday, August 18, 2010 5:14 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Troy Glaus still leads Braves with 70 RBI, but has been an offensive sinkhole since the All-Star break. In 102 at-bats Glaus has a .595 OPS and just 2 home runs. Enter Derrek Lee whom Atlanta acquired Wednesday for three minor league players. Lee had earlier rejected a trade to the Angels, but will now take over as the full-time first basemen with the Braves.

Before the trade, the Braves were projected as near locks to make the playoffs at 91.7% and 3:1 favorites to win the NL East.

BEFORE TRADE

W

L

%

DIV

 PLAYOFFS

Atlanta Braves

94.7

67.3

58.5%

75.4%

91.7%

Philadelphia Phillies

91.6

70.4

56.5%

24.5%

64.6%

Despite Lee having a disappointing year by his standards, he is hitting a robust .313 since the All-Star break with a .939 OPS. He certainly represents an upgrade over Glaus at first.  With only 43 games left in the season not much changes in the projected final standings in terms of wins and losses, but Atlanta improved its chances of a division title by 5.6%.

AFTER TRADE

W

L

%

DIV

 PLAYOFFS

Atlanta Braves

95.4

66.6

58.9%

81.0%

94.1%

Philadelphia Phillies

91.4

70.6

56.4%

19.0%

61.9%

LEE IMPACT

W

L

%

DIV

 PLAYOFFS

Atlanta Before Trade

94.7

67.3

58.5%

75.4%

91.7%

Atlanta After Trade

95.4

66.6

58.9%

81.0%

94.1%

Impact

0.7

 

0.4%

5.6%

2.4%

Three-Way Deal Sends Kevin Martin to Rockets, T-Mac to Knicks, Landry to Kings

  • Thursday, February 18, 2010 5:28 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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First, the moving parts:

Houston:  Kevin Martin, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong, 2012 protected first-rounder
New York:  Tracy McGrady, Sergio Rodriguez
Sacramento:  Carl Landry, Larry Hughes, Joey Dorsey

The Knicks also previously sent Darko to Minnesota and waived the incoming Brian Cardinal.  J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker are added to the bench in the Nate Robinson deal, which also sent Marcus Landry to Boston.

Houston looks like a big winner here getting Martin and lots of draft considerations while unloading McGrady.  That did not come without a price however having to take on Jeffries’ contract while losing Landry.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

28

26

51.9%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

42.4

39.6

51.7%

1.2%

26.4%

9TH

After Trade Deadline

42.2

39.8

51.5%

1.0%

26.0%

10TH

Trade Impact

-0.2

0.2

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.4%

-1

Per Game Impact

-0.7%

 

 

 

 

 

The trade hurts the Rockets on paper mostly because of how terrific Landry has been this season.  He should garner serious consideration for Sixth Man of the year.  Martin, though, gives Houston an über-efficient scorer at the two which will also allow Trevor Ariza to shift to a more comfortable 3rd-scorer role.  Martin has not been great this season, but has been slowed by injuries. 

Overall, the trade actually pushes Houston from 9th to 10th in the competitive Western Conference, but 2010 is not the goal.  Next season is the target for Houston when presumably Yao will be back allowing Scola, Ariza, Hayes and the like to play much more defined roles.  A backcourt of Martin and Brooks might be tough to pass defensively, but the presence of Ariza and Shane Battier as a pair of perimeter stoppers helps there.  Jeffries actually can help here as well.  Even though his contract is terrible, he has plenty of value as a defensive role player.

NEW YORK KNICKS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

19

34

35.8%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

31.3

50.7

38.2%

0.0%

1.9%

10TH

After Trade Deadline

29.7

52.3

36.2%

0.0%

0.7%

10TH

Trade Impact

-1.6

1.6

-2.0%

0.0%

-1.2%

--

Per Game Impact

-5.5%

 

 

 

 

 

New York is projected to be -5.5 percent worse per game this season losing 1.6 more games than before all these moves.  That is terrific news for Utah which owns the Knicks’ first-round pick.  As for the Knicks, their dream scenario is now possible: two maximum salary slots available for this summer.  It cost them their 2012 pick, and maybe their 2011 pick as well (Houston has the right to swap picks as long as it isn’t No.1 overall). 

Also, the moves also probably will end up costing David Lee because he will be a free agent and would need to be renounced in order to sign two max guys.  Just over half a season was enough for the team to deem Jordan Hill expendable marking yet another New York mistake.  T-Mac might get a chance to prove himself now on the court, and Rodriguez will get yet another to chance to prove he can play at this level.  New York saved about $1 million extra by sending out Darko.  The guess is that David Kahn just wanted to experience Darko for himself.  There is no other explanation for Minnesota.

The Kings got cap relief, and a great young (and affordable) forward in Landry.  His contract has an option for $3 million next season.  While Sacramento won’t be a destination for Wade, LeBron, Bosh and the like, the oodles of space does make them a player for mid-tier guys and as a facilitator of future trades.  The Kings can now build around a core of Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Landry, and Jason Thompson.  Not bad at all. 

Landry’s productivity actually improves Sacramento’s outlook for this season by +1.2 wins, or 4.3 percent per game, quite the impact for a former second round pick.

SACRMENTO KINGS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

18

36

33.3%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

28.8

53.2

35.1%

0.0%

0.0%

13TH

After Trade Deadline

30.0

52.0

36.6%

0.0%

0.0%

12TH

Trade Impact

1.2

-1.2

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

+1

Per Game Impact

4.3%